[Rosenthal] Astros/Braves Trade Talks Fell Through

I'm curious to what pitcher the Braves wanted.

 

I take that as an indication that they'd move Castro, rather than Carter.

 

Upton provides little to no value for the Astros, not sure why they would want Gattis either.

 

Assuming he's a functional catcher and they didn't want to move him to LF or whatever, this is a pretty intriguing trade. A core of Springer/Carter/Gattis gives you as much power as anyone. Even more so if Singleton develops. The Astros have the payroll flexibility to eat Upton's salary for a few years, and maybe a fresh start helps get him back on track. Obviously the value depends in part on the pitching prospect, but I'd take Gattis under club control for 4 years over 1 year of Fowler. And if you have a plus offensive catcher, upgrading the left side of the infield is not as big a priority - it gives you the flexibility to wait and see how Moran pans out.

 

If it really fell through because of the Astros not wanting to add that much payroll, this is where I'd not spend $40 million dollars on a closer.

If they're going to lose Fowler in 1 year, I'd rather they get actual MLB players vs. compensation picks.

 

No chance that was going to happen.

 

Rosenthal has somebody in the Astros organization consistently talking/leaking to him.

 

Including his arbitration money, this would have amounted to paying Gattis close to 20 million a year for the next 3 seasons. Blind comparison of the last 2 seasons.

Player A Age 28
15.3 AB/HR
.785 OPS
3.1 K/BB

Player B Age 28
16.8 AB/HR
.791 OPS
4.1 K/BB

One is Chris Carter, the other is Evan Gattis. As you can see their numbers are eerily similar. Unless Gattis is a capable catcher, I agree with the Astros that he probably isn't worth it.

 

Carter/Gattis seem awfully redundant; sluggers with an inability to get on base who strike out a lot. Gattis has as many home runs the past two years as walks (43).

He'd be a definite catcher upgrade (not too many F/T catchers post .800+ OPS; in fact, only two last year) but if the idea is to move him to LF... I don't see the point.

 

Wait, some of you would have actually considered that deal?

 

Would you have made the trade?

Would you want to spend $40,000,000 for a player that is 30 years old and has an OPS of .600 the last two years?

Do you think Gattis is worth losing Fowler, a top pitching prospect and $40,000,000 in payroll flexibility?

 

I'm glad we didn't bite on B.J. Upton, the guy is trash.

Also don't really get the infatuation with Gattis. I do like him...but where would we play him? His #s are stellar or a catcher (.262/ 22HR/ 52 RBI), but are kind of mediocre for an outfielder.

 

If they acquired Gattis, it would be to catch. I'm not sure why everybody assumes they'd move Carter or create space for him in the outfield. Gattis' value is at catcher.

With the Castro trade talk early in the offseason, it seems pretty obvious.

I'd love him as long as Upton isn't attached.

 

Last question doesn't factor in what Gattis will get in arbitration. I would say it would most likely be close to $60-75,000,000 in payroll flexibility assuming Gattis plays well.

 

The trade would not be about Upton... but he would be the price you have to pay for getting Gattis.

Not all that broken up about Fowler who will likely be lost to free agency anyways if no extension is reached (and like I said, I'd take established MLB players over compensation picks). I don't want him playing CF, but he's likely going to push hard to stay there regardless of what team he's playing.

Also, as was said to me when I mentioned payroll flexibility when arguing that they would be overpaying for a closer... this doesn't necessarily preclude other moves to improve the club. "If jimbo wants to spend... let him spend..."

 

The trade wouldn't be about Upton? His $40,000,000 is a huge consideration as it would limit future payroll spending.

I understand wanting an established major leaguer over a draft pick, but that is irrelevant in this case.

Concerning the closer situation, I am not sold on paying $40,000,000 on a closer over 3 seasons, it seemed absurd to me when it was first leaked. However, when you consider the strengths/weaknesses of the team and the number of games blown in the 8th and 9th inning, I can understand the reasoning. Is 5-6 wins improvement worth $13,000,000? Is there a happy medium? I don't know.

However, I do know that balking at the Gattis deal because you have to give up a young pitcher AND take on $40,000,000 for a bad contract is sound baseball.

 

Would it really limit it? People here think otherwise.

Also, Gattis with 4 more years of club control with a +.800 OPS at a premium position is worth taking on the bad contract (if that's the only way the Braves give him up).... and that's presuming that Upton stays as god-awful as he's been. A core offense of Altuve/Springer/Gattis... and hopefully somebody out of Moran/Ruiz/Correa makes an impact in the next 2 years... is a team I'd have some decent expectations for.

As far as closers go, I feel like they can get similar/cheaper production from somebody in the system or somebody already on the team... may not be as good as the high priced closer, but the gap between those two pitchers is less than the gap between Gattis and Castro.

 

22 HR in 108 games. He wasn't an every day player at first during his rookie year and was injured part of last year. He's also had a very strange path to the majors, which could mean he will be a late bloomer and continue to improve.

His power is very impressive and plays well at any position.

People generally think Gattis shouldn't catch. And with a young staff, I'd prefer to go with Conger or Castro. And I'd really like to avoid going back to the days of Carlos Lees and Chris Carters playing left field.

 

The Astros' payroll last season was $45MM. The median MLB team was $105 million, and the Astros should be able to comfortably be in that range when they are at full speed. That gives them a cushion of ~$60MM/year to spend over the next 3 before they start running into potential caps. Unless they go on a pretty significant spending spree, it's unlikely they are going to get to the range where they are really restricted in the next few years. Upton's deal would end just as current young players start expecting significant raises or get signed to longer term deals.

The way to look at this would be Gattis and Upton as a package deal. You'd essentially be paying $60ish MM for 4 years of what you'd hope to be a top-5 offensive catcher ($15MM/yr). That's not too out of line based on salary trends. Or if they flipped Carter and turned Gattis into a DH, then you're basically signing an 0.800OPS/30HR type DH for 4yrs/$15MM per, plus whatever you get for Carter. Anything you get from BJ Upton is just a bonus.

Of course, the pitching prospect you give away, whether Gattis can sty at catcher, and what you could get from Carter if you trade him are key to evaluating the deal.