So, thinking about the misses on our draft picks over the last several years, and the recent success of other GMs in Houston, made me wonder why the NFL hasn't adapted a more analytical approach? Maybe there is and its not as prevalent and I just don't know about it. I understand there are many variables that could make it more difficult. My question: is analytics used to a relatively high degree in the NFL? And if not,why? Is the NFL slow to adapt, or still the good ol' boy system?
I'm sure Belichik does. A couple things the NFL analytics guys say is don't trade up in the draft and don't sign expensive veterans if you can get similar production from cheaper, younger guys.
Chip Kelly comes to mind...Im sure some sort of analytics suggested to trade his starting QB and RB for the runts he currently plays...Time will tell, but I do think he used analytics to come to that decision.
I think of all the sports Football has the most good old boy network thing going on so I don't think for example they hire guys like Morey or Luhnow.
All it takes is for a team to be successful with it. No one would have expected any team to adopt the spread offense. If it is proven to work, teams will use it.
They use analytics to calculate probabilities during in-game scenarios more so than the NBA. They use analtyics to help gameplan and shed light on tendencies. They use analytics in nutrition, health and rest. They don't use them in a big way to evaluate new talent, it just doesn't make sense, too many schemes, disparities in competition, etc... they do use analytics to estimate the health/longevity of free agent signings. If Morey were added to an NFL staff I actually don't think he'd make waves in the strategy arena or the talent evaluation arena, I think his impact would be felt greatest in the structuring of contracts and trades.
Talent evaluation in the NFL still relies on old-school principles. Is the CB a "quick-twitch" CB? Does this LT get low enough to negate a bull-rush? There is still a lot of emphasis on combine performance. Shuttle, cone, 40 yard dash, etc. These numbers matter for some qualities, not for all of them. What is interesting is that PFF is now grading college players and if you remember during the draft they were slobbering over Stanford DL Henry Anderson who lasted until the 3rd round where the Colts drafted him. Well, Anderson has been starting there and is a favorably graded run-stuffer who I believe leads all NFL DL in tackles. Of course their system isn't perfect. Another one of their "secret stars" got cut in training camp I believe. But it is interesting to see advanced metrics on college performers. You get the tale of the tape vs combine wizardry and you have to try and decipher which one of those metrics translates to the NFL game.
You cant really use analytics in football to evaluate players like you do in other sports. A college kid out of Idaho that shoots 61% when left wide open from 3 point land...is still going to shoot that same percentage, when left wide open, if he played for LSU. You cant translate those things with football. You have to just go back to the basics...Velocity when a QB throws, footwork from a DB, etc... There are too many variables when it comes to football to really put analytics to work like you do with the NBA or MLB. However, game planning, strategy, etc...those things are all huge in the NFL in order to get your team in positions of favorable matchups. That's why Belichick is so good...he finds the weakness of the opposing team and hammers it until the other team breaks. He doesnt necessarily have the most talented roster through analytics, but he uses analytics to get his players in better positions within the game.
Does anyone remember a report (not sure if by ESPN) about the sports teams rank in use of analytics? I remembered the Texans ranked low on that report. Bob needs to fly out to MIT and find the next Morey.
Remember the reaction people on here and nationwide had over PFF scoring Aaron Rodgers an average score last week? That is what analytics does.
