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[ESPN Insider Request] The dilemma: To tank or not to tank

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by ICanDunkOnYao, Apr 13, 2011.

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  1. ICanDunkOnYao

    ICanDunkOnYao Member

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  2. New Generation

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    Yea, I also wanted to see this
     
  3. Blake

    Blake Contributing Member

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    To tank or not to tank, that is the question.

    To shamelessly give away a winnable game in hopes of having healthier players and earning a more favorable playoff opponent, or to do the honorable thing and aim to finish as high as possible.

    Memphis opted for the former strategy, controversially, although you can hardly blame the Grizzlies after they were victimized in 2006 by the most blatant tanking example in league annals -- when the Clippers intentionally lost a game in ridiculous fashion (starting a near-comatose Vin Baker, most famously) to take advantage of a then-existing seeding loophole that allowed them to play a team with an inferior record.

    The examples this year won't be nearly as egregious, but the Grizzlies and the Hornets are the teams to watch Wednesday in the battle for the seventh and eighth positions in the West. Memphis could guarantee itself the eighth spot and a first-round match with the Spurs by losing to the Clippers; given what transpired Tuesday night in Portland, it would be really, really weird if they turned around and tried to win Wednesday.

    Memphis coach Lionel Hollins already dropped a pretty strong hint that Zach Randolph won't play, and presumably Tony Allen (who sat out Tuesday) and fellow starters Marc Gasol and Mike Conley will get a breather this evening.

    On the other hand, news of Andrew Bynum's knee injury could shift incentives. The presumption that nobody wants to face the Lakers will face considerable questioning should the MRI reveal a serious problem; that, in turn, could re-motivate the Grizzlies to push for the seventh position.

    It also could motivate the Hornets to do the same. New Orleans would lock itself into a second-round series with the Lakers if it beats Dallas, but losing could open the door to facing the Spurs or Mavericks. Twenty-four hours ago, that decision was a no-brainer for the Hornets -- sit Chris Paul, let Aaron Gray work on his 3-point shot and hope things bounce their way in the other games. Now? One wonders if a certain date against a weakened Lakers team is preferable to the other potential outcomes.

    Tanking possibilities also exist in the race for the second, third and fourth seeds, but these are tempered by the reality that having home-court advantage in the second round is much more important than having a better matchup in the first. The one team that might consider punting is Oklahoma City, which could guarantee itself a first-round date with the Nuggets and a spot on the opposite side of the bracket from the Lakers with a loss to Milwaukee.

    For the Lakers and Mavericks, they would potentially surrender home-court advantage in the second round with a defeat tonight, and that's likely too great a cost to consider punting the game.

    As a result, unless the Lakers announce devastating news with Bynum, our likely outcome is that the Grizzlies "succeed" against the Clippers by losing, becoming the No. 8 seed, and that the Hornets do similarly in Dallas and take the seventh seed.

    Finally, we must consider the time line. The Grizzlies have a "sudden health" scenario because the Hornets play before they do. If New Orleans loses and the reports on Bynum come back pessimistic, Memphis has a strong incentive to play Allen, Randolph and the others to get a matchup against either Dallas (if the Lakers lose to Sacramento in a game that will be played simultaneously) or a wounded Lakers team (if L.A. beats the Kings).

    The only question, then, is what happens with the Lakers in Sacramento -- where they'll face a Kings team that has played well of late, and before a raucous crowd in what is perhaps the final game at the Placebo Center. If L.A. loses and Dallas wins, they Lakers are the No. 3 seed and face the Trail Blazers. Otherwise, they're the No. 2 and draw New Orleans.

    As with Memphis above, the Lakers have a timeline advantage -- they'll know the result of the Dallas game before theirs tips off, and thus have a "sudden scratch" scenario. If the Mavs lose, L.A. can rest its stars knowing that the No. 2 seed is secure.

    Overall, there are 16 permutations for tonight's outcomes. The biggest wild card is Dallas, which could play any of four teams. San Antonio pays Memphis and Oklahoma City plays Denver in 12 of the 16 scenarios; the Lakers play the Hornets in 10 of them; and the Mavs play the Blazers in eight of them.

    As for seeding, to review:

    # New Orleans is the No. 7 seed with a win or a Memphis loss, either of which would make Memphis No. 8. If New Orleans loses and the Grizzlies win, Memphis is No. 7 and the Hornets No. 8.

    # Denver and Portland are locked into the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds, respectively, but still await their opponents.

    # The Lakers are No. 2 with a win or a Dallas loss; and No. 3 with a loss and a Dallas win.

    # The Mavs are No. 2 with a win and a Laker loss; and No. 4 with a loss and a Thunder win. Any other combo makes them No. 3.

    # The Thunder are No. 3 with a win and a Dallas loss; otherwise they're No. 4.

    # The Spurs and Bulls are still battling for home-court advantage in the Finals should they meet. If both teams win or both teams lose, it will be decided by random drawing later this week. If only one team wins, that team will have the home-court advantage.
    # The Lakers clinched home-court advantage for a Lakers-Celtics Finals with last night's win over San Antonio. Oklahoma City would clinch the same tonight with a win or a Boston loss.

    # Dallas can secure home-court advantage in a Mavs-Heat Finals with a win and a Miami loss.

    # And finally, if you're reeeeeeally a geek about this stuff, home-court advantage in a Nuggets-Magic Finals is still unresolved. The Nuggets would get the edge with a win and an Orlando loss tonight; otherwise it goes to the Magic.

    Finally, a few of you are undoubtedly wondering what I think will actually happen tonight. My best guess is that all the teams that are actually trying to win do so -- the Lakers, Mavs and Thunder. If so, that leaves us with Spurs-Grizzlies, Lakers-Hornets, Mavs-Blazers and Thunder-Nuggets in the first round. But we could still have another surprise in store, like the one Memphis provided last night, from a team that ponders the question at the top and decides it's not worth it to fight to the finish.
     
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  4. MourningWood

    MourningWood Contributing Member

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    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-110413

     
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