ESPN_Kevin Pelton: Rockets Should Trade James Harden

Classic ESPN clickbait.

 

great great great post.

on thing i would like to add is tim duncan is a GD beast. seriously wow.

 

LOL....those players with the exceptions of Davis and Boogie that is make their teams better. I would love to see Boogie here but we don't have anything of value right now to give them anything back they would want. We traded away our first rounder for Lawson for this year. That means we can't trade next year's pick and so we would have to trade our 2018 pick.

 

LoL that's cute Myers Leonard, et al, rating better than Dwight.

Wish we could figure out how many of those attempts are open layups, bunnies, or dunks after having to cover up for appalling on the ball defense on the wing or in the post by the weakside.

Typically, I relish statistically inclined or validated arguments but, I'm sorry, this isn't passing the smell test and it's because I know what's driving part of the disconnect between the output (the +.6%) and the input (wide open shots coming because DH12 has to cover for his teammates).

 

I think it might be the first time this idea has been entertained officially

 

Exactly how many wide open shots at the rim do really think that we give up per game?

The numbers that I posted are his overall numbers but you can break them down according to different distances from the hoop. He's down at all of the distances. Once you move out to 10 feet and beyond I don't think that you can attribute that to help defense no matter how often you think that happens.

Capela is playing with the same perimeter defenders, right?

There's other centers on that list who's teams have terrible perimeter defenders and they don't have similar numbers. Why is that? They should have similar issues.

Dwight has always relied on his athleticism and he just doesn't have the same explosion that he did in the past. Add that to the fact that he's really not that big for his position and you see this type of dropoff. His strength still alows him to be an elite rebounder but he no longer has the quickness and explosion as he did in prior years. That same loss of explosiveness has also caused his block shots to decline over the last several years. Dwight has never been a great positional defender but he was able to compensate for that with his freakish athleticism. Now he's less athletic so he isn't as effective at doing that.


What you are describing certainly happens occassionally but not at a high enough frequency to effect Howard's numbers to this extent.


Opposing centers have scored well against us all season. If you truly believe that is all because Dwight is having to help on other players and leave his man then you're free to believe that.

 

What????
Dwight may not have been TD but he has been a great positional defender!!
Capela is awful.

 

Fair points, and I hesitate to progress the discussion without - quite literally - any data, much less substantive data, as a supplement.

But 30,000 foot it's pretty simple. Lets assume the guy Dwight is guarding averages 10 fga/game. And, all else equal, he shoots 50%. Now, lets assume that twice a game Dwight has to cover up more than other comparative defenders and gives his assignment a dunk at a ~100% clip. Hence:

8 FGA at a 50% clip
2 FGA at a 100% clip.

Net result is 6 fgm /10 fga in a vacuum vs the base case of 5 fgm /10 fga. That in itself is a 10% difference.

So, to your point of is this the only reason or how often does it happen, etc etc; the illustrative case above shows it only need to happen 2x per game to take him from +.6 to -9.4 or essentially from ~ average to like 3 stdev above average. It's all about sample size here, and the fact that for every single time it happens to DH12 vs the avg big - well - that's a 5% difference in the stat you've cited (using the litany of assumptions and constraints I've applied).

Again, I hesitated before I progressed the discussion further but your constructive and fair post deserved a reply. In this case, I've tried to illustrate how small the difference needs to be every game for it to make a monumental difference in the type of stat you've cited.

Hope that makes sense, but I wouldn't blame you for flaming away given no real data.

 

Ten big trades ESPN would like to see before the NBA deadline

 

This would be ideal. Only difference I would make is sent Jones to Minny instead of Dmo.

 

Chad Ford folks.

The Rockets send TWO superstars to Boston (one of which was the players MVP last year) and get a first rounder, Isiah Thomas, and salary. WOW... where do I sign.


If the Rockets were to trade Harden (IN THEORY) we are talking about maybe the largest haul in trade history for Morey to ask for.

-Brooklyn 1st
-multiple Boston 1sts (at least two unprotected)
-Dallas 1st
-Minnesota first
-Smart
-Crowder

That's ALL going to Houston in the deal... and that's just for Harden.

 

Yea, Ford is pretty dumb here.

 

That Chad Ford Harden/Howard trade suggestion is absurd. How anyone with any modicum of basketball knowledge could even suggest that is beyond me.

 

That would be a nice deal for Houston.

 

LOL

ESPN at it again...

 

Wow how does chad ford have a job? Like Ya harden howard combo sucks in Houston but in Boston with the beloved celtics jersey on and a big market we at Espn like the would click and be instant Contenders.

I'm confident after reading that, that the media does in fact hate Houston sports. I was in denial for a while but when they bash us all year anytime they get a chance and then turn around same week and say that superstar tandem wouod work in a big market they like? Wow just wow.

Go kill youself ESPN.

 

Dmo would probably do well under Budenholzer in Atlanta, Ex Popovich student should know how to use a Euro!