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What affect would a healthy Bob Sura have on the point guard position?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Jul 25, 2006.

  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Warning this is long


    For this discussion we are going with the hypothetical that Bob Sura will be at least as healthy as he was in 04-05 season. Sura has stated that he will not return unless he regains his athleticism and quickness.

    For those that will reply to this thread that Sura will not be back, let me save you the time by acknowledging that he may not be back at all. As few as 3 weeks ago I did not think there was a chance that Sura would be back but now I am much more optimistic about it based on his last interview.

    So on to the question: What affect would a healthy Bob Sura have on the Rockets point guard position?

    With Sura, Alston, V-Span and JLIII all manning the point guard position I think it is obvious that someone…maybe even two someones are not going to be getting much (if any) playing time. Who will be the odd man or men out?

    First of all who starts? Sura and Alston have both played one season with the Rockets. Both started at point guard for their one season.

    When Sura started at point guard the Rockets were a vastly different team. The team as a whole attacked the basket. Fast break points were up. Team assists were up. Outside shooting was great. The offense for the first time in years was fun to watch. With out Sura as the starting point guard the team just took on a different personality. They did not fast break as much and the offense was not as efficient.

    In 04-05 Sura played 61 games and started 59 as the point guard. He missed the first 14 games of the season and 7 games around the all star break.

    He started his first game on 12-02-04 and prior to that game:
    - The Rockets loosing record was 6-10
    - The Rockets loosing record with out Sura in Feb - March was 3-4
    - With out Sura for the Whole season the teams record was 9-14
    - The offense averaged 89 points a game
    - Had loosing streaks of 2, 2, 2, 4 and 3

    With Sura as a starter:
    - The offense averaged 97.4 points a game
    - The Rockets winning record was 42 - 17
    - Had loosing streaks of 2, 2, 2, 2 and 3
    - We had win streaks of 3, 3, 4, 4, 8, 6, 3, 2, and 7

    The one fact that strikes me is that the Rockets consistently scored close or over a 100 points a game with Sura in the line-up. With out Sura and before the Mike James trade the Rockets only hit 100pts once and only came close 2 other times.

    Sura also averaged 43% f/g 37% 3pt 10ppg 5apg 5rpg

    The affect Sura had on the team is just amazing.

    With Rafer Alston the Rockets never really seemed to push the ball and the fast break was almost non-existent. In fairness to Rafer he did not have the same tools to work with that Sura did the previous year and the Rockets were injured as bad as any team in the league.
    Oddly, Rafer started 63 games, only 4 more than Sura.

    With Rafer out of the starting line-up:
    - The Rockets loosing record was 7-12
    - The Rockets scored 100 or more points 5 times
    - Loosing streaks were massive.
    - One winning streak of 4

    With Rafer as the starter:
    - The Rockets loosing record was 27 - 36
    - Massive Loosing streaks through out the season.
    - Winning streaks 4, 3, 4
    - 15 times the Rockets scored 100 pts.

    Rafer averaged 38% f/g 33% 3pt 12ppg 7apg 4rpg

    Do to the injury situation last year I don’t think you we had a fair evaluation of Rafer but he did not seem to push the ball as hard as Sura or have the same effect on his team mates as Sura.

    On defense Rafer steals more balls than Sura but I would much rather have Rafer garding me than Sura. I believe if Sura guards you long enough you would want to punch the guy. I don’t think Rafer has that affect on other players.

    IMO I would start Sura.

    So If Sura starts what does the back up point guard situation look like? I don’t think there is any question that if the season starts with Sura as the starter then Rafer would be the back up. But for how long?

    What do you want from a back up point guard?

    - Someone to slow down the pace of the game. Not turn the ball over while your starter is on the bench or make good passes. That would probably be Rafer Alston.

    - Someone to speed up the tempo of the game. Push the ball, get some fast breaks and hit
    some outside shots. That would probably by JLIII.

    - Someone that has size, athleticism that can play bigger point guards. Someone that can
    drive to the basket and pass back out or finish the break. That person would probably be V-Span.

    There is no question that JVG will not start the season with a rookie as his primary back up if he has a veteran option. But what if his team needs a scoring punch, or to speed up the tempo of the game or even to add some defense? Is the person best suited for any of that Rafer Alston? I don’t think so.

    If Sura is healthy and starts then I think you will see Rafer loose more and more minutes as the season goes on and as V-Span and JLIII gain JVG‘s trust.

    I think V-Span and JLIII are the point guards of the future for the Rockets if they progress the way they are projected to progress. I don’t think the Rockets would have invested 3 guaranteed years in both if they did not believe that they had a good chance at becoming the two point guards for this team.

    IMO a healthy Sura this year means the eventual end to Rafer Alston on the Rockets. And this time next year we will be arguing about if V-Span should start or if a 34 year old Bob Sura will come back for another season.
     
  2. lost_elephant

    lost_elephant Contributing Member

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    He's older and has had two surgeries since the last time we saw Bob on the court, and he looked slow then. I think he has a chance to backup up the two and play spot minutes at the 1. I don't think there is any chance that he starts at point.
     
  3. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Not sure which Bob Sura you saw but the last time he was on the court he did not look slow to me. Maybe you were comparing him to Jason Terry as far as speed goes but Terry will make a lot of people look slow.

    Sura played hurt a lot in 04-05 but when he was on the court there was no sign of injury.

    Also please remember that this thread is based on a hyothetical that Sura will be healthy.
     
  4. lost_elephant

    lost_elephant Contributing Member

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    Bobby couldn't keep up with anyone in that series. Darrel Armstrong was running circles around him in one of the games, and he was 36 then and contemplating retirement. Outside of the first two games where his shot was actually falling, he looked old, slow, and beat up.

    Edit: If I remember right, it wasn't the first two games, he lit up the third game and then did pretty much nothing afterwards.
     
    #4 lost_elephant, Jul 25, 2006
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2006
  5. momosworld

    momosworld Member

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    Using your assumptions that he is healthy and at least close to presurgery form, it raises major queastions for the rotation. I am with you that he has to be on the floor if healthy. The rockets were just a flat out different team with him. If he could hold up he makes rafer maybe our MVP at the trade deadline- most valuable piece. We might be able to dangle him for some help at the 4. I think Rafers a solid pg, but I would rather have a healthy Sura back.
     
  6. Hippieloser

    Hippieloser Contributing Member

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    Well, in the Dallas series he was playing through the injuries to his knees that he then had surgery on immediately after the Rockets were eliminated. I'd imagine his back was bad, too, since he had surgery on it, too, during the same offseason. Of course a second knee surgery caused him to miss the entirety of last season. What I'm saying is, the Dallas series shouldn't be where we begin and end our analysis of Sura's season with the Rockets. He was playing hurt-- and hurt pretty good.

    It seems like wild fantasy that Sura could return to his 51-win form, yet it's hard to totally discount the possibility as well. Sura played hurt (though not hurt as badly as in the playoffs) pretty much throughout that season and was still quite effective, as crash pointed out. If he can truly play pain-free after all this time, it seems possible that he could achieve similar results again. Of course, he's basically playing with a new and different body than before, so the chances are fairly slim. The bottom line is that Sura's biggest effect on the team was the chemistry he developed with the other players. The team looked and acted differently when he was on the floor. While it's far too much to hope that Sura will get big minutes this season, let alone start (assuming of course he plays at all), the biggest benefit to the Rockets will be to the team's emotional core. It would be tough for Yao and Tmac (and the faceless bench) to look over at another guy who suffered catastrophic injuries, didn't play AT ALL last season, and still managed to work himself back into playing shape and say to themselves, "Gee, you know, I just don't think we can do this." If having Sura back on the court helps #11 and #1 get some of that swagger back that they felt after Game 2 in Dallas, then Bob Sura's long rehab will have been well worth it in my opinion.
     
  7. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    If he has a 100 % recovery and returns 100% to preinjury form than yes you have to give him consideration as the starting PG. But even if he has a perfect rehab I would say it's at least until mid season before he is 100% and that's not 100% to what he was but rather 100% of the best he can be considering the injuries and age have taken thier toll not to mention being inactive for 16 months. Personally I just don't see that happening. I would say the best scenario will be he comes back as a team leader and contributes 15- 20 minutes off the bench of fearless abandonment. Considering I thought he was finished I will be very pleased if he can do that much.

    Here's to Bobby proving me wrong!
     
  8. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    Regrettably, without having seen the man practice, I presume his career finished, because:

    -healthy guys don't have to 'try out' for their teams
    -even if he starts the season he isn't likely to be at or near 100%
    -even if he starts the season at 100% he isn't likely to not break down

    and because I presume if he reports to camp he will see what he cannot do and therefore will hang'm up before the first tip off of the season...which will be regrettable

    BTW - I believe your assessment of RA is close enough to reality that I would not be shocked to see Damon Jones imported and Rafer used as an export chip.
     
  9. monkeyboy32

    monkeyboy32 Contributing Member

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    first of let me say that i loved what bobby brought to our team in 04-05...

    but to play along with the hypothetical fantasy that he will be near that condition for this season, i still say we need to start rafer.

    as a sura fan, what i found most frustrating about his game was his non-existent post-entry pass. countless times he would not be able to pass it into the post and opted to swing it around.

    rafer is MUCH better at feeding the ball into yao, and that is the most effective way to establish our STARTING tempo...therefore, i say we gotta start rafer

    but then again i dont think sura will be back with anymore fainting ever again, so the whole discussion is moot IMO.
     
  10. kingkow

    kingkow Member

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    Alston can cut and pass with the eyes behind his head. Sura just does not have the talent
     
  11. Uprising

    Uprising Contributing Member

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    With the eyes behind his head?! HOLY CRAP! Why hasn't he been doing this then? I've never seen any player do that. :eek:
     
  12. SuperKev

    SuperKev Contributing Member

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    Just a couple of points...

    V-Span has a similar game to Sura. I think we will have the drive the basket/slashing missing element this season even if Sura can't make a go of it. Of course I would choose a healthy Sura over V-Span - but V is always there if it doesn't work.

    Also, Crash, I think your analysis of Rafer is far too negative and doesn't account for the fact he rarely played with a healthy Tmac or Yao and was injured himself. For the handful of games we actually were able to see Rafer feeling good with a Yao and TMac who were feeling good - he had very good outings and contributed better than any PG I've seen for the Rockets in a long time.

    However, I think there is insufficient data to truly evaluate Rafer in good concience until next season.

    ...And by the way Sura and V-Span can both play the 2. Another debate might be who plays the 2 and what effect it would have. You could have a lineup of Rafer, Sura, Tmac, Shane, Yao or Rafer, TMac, Shane, Jho, Yao. I think either of those lineups could be great.
     
  13. AroundTheWorld

    Supporting Member

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    Is there currently a spelling contest going on?

    If yes - kill. Effect. :p
     
  14. Tameway

    Tameway Member

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    Maybe Sura can makes nothing for us ......
     
  15. Sextuple Double

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    Because he covers them with his headband.
     
  16. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    One of the weaknesses of the 04-05 team was that they did not have a great post passer. Sura was no exception.

    One argument I guess I expected to see was that it was Rafer's post passing ability and the willingness to re-post that helped Yao become the dominate player we saw in the 2nd half of last season.
     
  17. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    SuperKev,

    You are right, 05-06 provided an unfair evaluation of Rafer. Having said that it is the only one we have. I just never saw him playing with the same tempo that helped make the Rockets a 51 win team in 04-05.

    Of course how often had a point guard that could average 7 assists and so few turn overs.

    I just think that when the whole picture is taken into account, Sura does a lot more for the Rockets as a point guard than Alston
     
  18. FireBlizzard90

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    couldnt resist...
    its supposed to be "what effect would a helthy bob sura have on point guard position"

    btw nice analysis. i think surea would back up the 2 for tmac and rafer starting the 1. im sure jvg would want to start juwon at the 4
     
  19. A_3PO

    A_3PO Member

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    A healthy Sura would have exactly one NBA season left in him, then he's out to pasture. For that reason, we would be foolish to trade Rafer just because of Sura's return. He would give us depth at PG, sharing time with Rafer. He would also play some SG. Overall, he would also cut into the minutes of Luther, JL3, Vspan and Snyder. A healthy Sura would provide us nice a one season boost.

    Some of your memories of him are way too generous. He replaced Charlie Ward and Tyronne Lue! He played with a healthy Tracy and Yao, which is why we went 51-31. In addition to his toughness and rebounding, Sura is also a bit slow for a PG, has trouble bringing the ball up the court, isn't a good shooter and usually didn't pass that well to Yao. He was not the super role-player many make him out to be. Plus, you cannot separate injuries from him because that's a part of him now.

    I'd love to have him play a full season because it would make us better. He and Rafer would compliment each other very well.
     
  20. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    It's a fair statement to say that with out either T-Mac or Yao we do not go for 51 wins in 04-05. However it is also fair and really undisputible given the facts that with out Sura we also do not win 51 games.

    One of the arguments that has gone around this bbs is that with a healthy Yao and a healthy T-Mac you can surround them with almost anyone and we still have a play-off team. However, 04-05 season does not support that belief.

    The Rockets started out that season 6-10 with out Sura. Even when we aquired James the Rockets had a loosing record with out Sura. James, Barry and Wesley were in the back court when the Rockets went 3-4 while Sura was out in Feb and Mar. I just don't see how those facts can be written off as if Sura really did not have that much to do with it.


    I don't know where you got that Sura was a bit slow for a point guard or had trouble bringing the ball up the court. Sura looked to have one speed that whole year and it was wide open. Was he as fast or quick as Jason Terry or Tony Parker? No but few people are.

    It has been a very long time since we have had someone that got the ball up the court as effectively as Sura. That was the main reason for our offense gelling like it did under him. You want to watch a point guard that has trouble getting the ball up the court then watch Steve Francis. I've never seen anyone with his speed and athleticism get the ball across the line so late in the shot clock and then get trapped on the sideline as consistent as he did.

    Sura consistantly got the ball across the half court line early in the shot clock and always looking for a fast break. This was exactly what made the Rockets offense so efficient with Sura on the floor.

    Isn't a good shooter? for his career not great but he has never been on great teams in the past. He proved however that when left open he is a good 3pt shooter. His 3pt% with the Rockets was .355%.

    I will agree that Sura is not a great post passer.

    I would just like to add that Alston was advertised as someone that would push the tempo and run the break. I think that is why the Rockets traded for him. They new that with out Sura they had no one that would do that for them. Unfortunately Alston did not play as advertised. While he is a good passer and does not turn over the ball, he also did not push the ball all that hard last season...even with a healthy TMac and Yao.
     

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