Dwight isn't going to get better as he ages, so giving him $20 mln to prove that theory doesn't sound right to me. Especially with the fact he can't dominate in the post forcing teams to double team him and therefore leaving wide open 3 pointers shooters. That's is the biggest reason we brought him here. Yet he he's unable to dominate the horrible Lopez brother and got abused by Brook Lopez of Brooklyn. Let alone Draymond Green.
Despite the fantastic research done by OP (geez can't believe this has turned in to a real thread w/ such a turd for a first post but I digress) the thread title has been invalidated. You've basically said an expectation of 15/12. There are 2 guys in the NBA who are 15/12, or better, Andre Drummond and Kevin Love. So, if we draw arbitrary lines (and, to an extent you have to) and Dwight is one of three players league wide to fit that criteria, I will assume the thread title has been invalidated. He's never going to be threat-to-be-best-player-in-the-league-good ever again. He's never going to carry-a-team-with-Hedo Tukoglu-as-the-second-best-player-to-the-finals-good ever again. But if anyone realistically thought we had that guy then you didn't pay attention to the 2 years he put up before he came to Houston. Not to mention that guy, + Harden and a serviceable roster, would just about be title favorites in any non-2015-GSW year. Simply put, even modest or "admirable" expectations, in this case, would place him in the company of only 2 other players league-wide. Elite. That. Is. Quit sucking at trolling OP.
I also think that's the most damning thing about this, but it could very well be explained by him having to "contest" someone else man more often since our wing defenders can't keep anyone in front of them. So a lot goes into this, but still IMO 57% is still too high. The reason I think it's too high is you compare Dwight to say Capela and you see Capela has much better numbers. He's playing half his minutes going against second tier guys, and he plays less minutes... But I think there is some truth to this and it's proven to me by the eye-test. Capela seems much more active than Howard, both faster and more mobile (because he's younger.) Which is proven by his better contest %'s, even though he has a lower deterrance % probably due to being out of position a lot because he's a young guy and Dwight's reputation. If Capela can bring his deterrance index up to 40-45%, he's going to be an elite defender, think top 5. This just means he cuts off the action before it even starts and this really comes with more reps and experience. Basically, with or without Dwight the future is bright for the C position in Houston.
While I agree with you to some extent, that 15-12 or whatever is not common in the NBA. Rebounding is a team thing anyway and even though Dwight is a good rebounder, our team has still been very bad the last 3 years in defensive rebounding.... We make up for it in offensive rebounding, but we give up more OREBs than we get, so it's a moot point. Anyway here are some numbers for you guys. A lot of this is probably because other guys aren't doing a good job of boxing out mind you.....Like how his chase % is pretty high yet he doesn't win a lot of them.
Trade Dwight while he still has decent value. Next offseason Dwight will want way too much money and someone will overpay to sign him (Cuban, if dallas has cap room). Dwight's next contract will put us in Cap hell.
Dwight is a postseason player now. His regular season will probably always be less than elite due to health. Harden gets us to the playoffs and Dwight shines there. 2 years ago Dwight was elite in the playoffs. Last year he lead the league in rebounds per game in the playoffs. That's elite. He's not a great scorer, but if you think that we don't need an elite rebounder on this team then you're kidding yourself. And his defense improves our whole team immensely.