Based on the comments here I realize some people think we might actually be better sans Lin, Parsons, and Asik which I found rather eye opening. So I was curious to see what the general state of optimism was on Clutchfans.
About the same. Ariza > Parsons Asik > Dorsey / Black Lin = Net neutral McHale = McHale - doubt he hadsthe ability or tactical nous to learn anything from last season. He seems to have vacuum between the ears when it comes to coaching. TR Dunn may help though.
Cautiously Optimistic is just a blanket statement for a lot of Houston professional sports fans. We love to hope!
From a seeding perspective, they will not be better than a 4. I think they will end up at the 4/5 seeds and then can hopefully get to the 2nd round.
I think they are worse offensively but 2X better defensively. We will actually win games with defense this year.
Pretty optimistic that the will fare better, especially come playoff time. Asik is clearly better than anything else we have as a back up center, but he rarely played last year and when he did it wasn' 100%. So we don't lose anything there. Imo Trevor is a better fit, has no agenda contract or proving himself wise. Trevor knows who he is and knows the role he plays on the team. As a team we will be better defensively. As far as Lin, I really liked the kid and believed he wasn't used properly, BUT he was young and very inconsistent. He never could over come the constant role changes and inconsistent minutes, but that was the mental part of the game he has to get over. It just basketball, go play the game. I still rooting for the kid to succeed, he was a good guy. Jason Terry on the other hand has been around the block several times and I hope his body can hold up for at least one more lap. If it does, another net positive. Mentality he will provide leadership, Ariza will provide leadership. This team sorely lacked that last year. Parson tried but as we've seen thru his actions since he left, he was very young and learning himself. I also believe Harden has seen that he has to commit to better defense. Howard wants it more now than he ever has. They want to prove the haters wrong. Second year together, I see a more successful year as a duo. We also have some young pieces and Morey hasn't tied the teams hands. I anticipate Morey will make some sort of move to strengthen this teams weaknesses.
I think our starting lineup has improved. I am not one of the many who will bash Parsons. Parsons played hard and exceeded all expectations. But he is/was young and still learning the game. His defensive lapse on Lilliard to end our season is the perfect example of that. Ariza, however, is a savvy vet who knows how to play that role perfectly. I expect he'll be a better fit for our team and I'm really excited to see how many turnovers he and Bev force this year. If Jason Terry is healthy, I think he'll be a better fit than Jeremy was. Jeremy needed the ball in his hands to be effective. Whether playing beside Harden or Bev, Terry is the perfect deadeye shooter to compliment them. Obviously he won't be driving into the lane like Lin, but I can see Terry being a very good fit. But again, he has to be healthy, and at his age, that's a big question mark. As for Asik, there is no replacing him. I like what I'm seeing from Adrien and Tarik Black but it's completely unrealistic to expect them to fill Asik's shoes. Papanikoloau is looking to be much better depth at small forward than we had last year. I hope he continues playing at this level (or improving as he adjusts to the nba). Troy Daniels also looks like he's ready to be a solid contributor off the bench. I'm still holding out hope that we will somehow see the Rockets pick up another solid point guard or an upgrade at power forward. If we could pull that off somehow, then I'd definitely expect this team to be better. My only current concern is how unproven most of our depth is.
Of the options, I picked no difference. I could see see a few less wins because the conference is so good, but I think we'll be the same quality team assuming we roll with who we've got right now. Of course "soon" / "this Saturday" has been extended for several months (lol) so we'll see who we have on the roster by year end.
I put No Difference, but that's recordwise, and I couldn't begin to predict seeding. Improved defense is a definite plus. However, to me, it all comes down to whether we can still win games with half court offense since teams are only going to get better at playing us in transition, taking away the fast break. Even when we did get defensive stops in the past years, we couldn't score on the other end against a set defense. We have few offensive plays and sticky ballhandling. I hope that's improved, but since that's largely a coaching issue, who knows? Probably not. There is definitely room for each player to improve, though. We missed a ton of layups, threes, and especially free throws in the past couplr of seasons. If everyone has improved in these aspects where relevant, that will definitely give us a good chance at going further.
Agree with Realjad - We will end up with a similar record as last year, hovering around 50 wins and the 3-6 seed, but I anticipate we are better suited than last year to move further in the playoffs due to an improved defense. People mention Asik in their analysis of whether we will be better/worse - he didn't play the better part of 2 months, and we didn't have a major dropoff in on the court production so I actually expect the loss of Lin will hurt the most - can Daniels/Terry/Canaan replicate his offense off the bench?
If healthy we'll do ok and just make the playoffs. First round exits from what I am seeing. But we'll see how much Kostas, Troy, isiah, nick johnson improves within the next months. Maybe some trades as well.
I think the team will be better and is certainly built better now for the slow down, grind of the playoffs. On the flip side, the team is even more dependent on Harden now since Lin was the only other guy on the team who could get his own shot. Parson's versatility is outweighed by Ariza's better shooting and defense so I think we get a net gain there. Asik didn't play in Houston last regular season as far as I see it, so again, not a big loss and potentially a gain if one of the unproven big men is hungry and can deliver 15 minutes of defense and rebounding each game. So as long as Harden stays healthy I think we can expect a similar number of wins to last season but with a much more balanced feel and a real ability to win games defensively. I can see this team getting to the second round but until another dependable shot creator lands in Houston, no contending for a championship.
Defensively we may be better with Ariza over Parsons for sure. But I struggle to see where else we have improved. Seems like pretty much the same cast of characters sans Lin and Asik.
This time next year people will agree Ariza is hands down just a better basketball player and fit for this team than Parsons ever was or could develop into.
