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Thoughts on the [DraftExpress] PG Statistical Analysis?

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by Spacemoth, Jun 12, 2008.

  1. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    LINK

    I was just wondering if you guys read this, and what your thoughts were on potential PG's available to us at 25 or elsewhere if we move up or down.

    Here were my thoughts:

    1. Tywon Lawson is the best pure PG besides Rose (no matter what the numbers say, Rose is better). Why is DJ Augustin supposed to go 10-15 picks ahead of this guy?

    2. Lester Hudson will not be a PG in the NBA. At best he'd be a combo guard since he shoots so much and has such a crappy A/TO ratio (1.17). But at least his great rebounding rate means he has superior athleticism and could have some role on an NBA team. Hollinger has previously expostulated that rebounding rates for guards is a great way to determine NBA-quality guards; it translates well into the next level. The Rockets don't need another PG who can't pass though.

    3. For all the noise on Russell Westbrook and Jerryd Bayless, the statistics do not support their status as potential top-8 picks.

    4. The name that continually sticks out is Mario Chalmers. Granted he is an old junior at 22, but he is at or near the top in many categories including Assists/TO (2.25), 3pt/40min (2.4), Steals/40 (3.2), TS% (66%), EffFG% (63%), PPS (1.25), and PER (25.5). The high A/TO comes primarily from his extreme lack of turnovers, meaning he takes care of the ball well but can also distribute. The fact that he leads both the 3-pointers taken and the true-shooting percentage means that he is a sharpshooter in the truest sense. He takes a lot, and makes a lot, of threes. And finally, a high number of steals has been demonstrated (also by Hollinger) as a great metric for NBA-quality defensive abilities and athleticism.

    Maybe I won't be disappointed if we take him. But I probably still would be. 6"1 and we really really need athleticism. But hey he can shoot, he can defend, and he should be able to distribute.
     
  2. ClutchCityReturns

    ClutchCityReturns Contributing Member

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    I read that yesterday too. The guy that stuck out to me at first was Tywon Lawson, but as I read more and more I became interested in Mario Chalmers.

    In this offense it's more important for the PG to be a shooter than a distributor, and that's where Chalmers has it over Lawson. I also like that Chalmers' has defensive prowess combined with decent size (6'1" with big wingspan) compared to Lawson (under 6' with lacking wingspan). He also takes care of the ball and is a knock down spot up shooter.

    So in short, he can come in and take care of the ball, knock down open shots, and defend well. What more could we want from a backup PG?

    That said, I don't think there's much chance at all of us taking a PG in this draft, at least not in the 1st round. And as of today Chalmers is projected to go #26, meaning if we move up as Morey has hinted then he likely won't be in our range, and if we look to get him with a 2nd rounder, he'll likely be gone.
     
  3. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    So many of the best point guards were winners in college. Think of Derron Williams. So Chalmers gets an extra brownie point from me.
     
  4. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    I think George Hill has a chance to have a good career in the NBA. He's smart with a very good skill level.
     
  5. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Contributing Member

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    i think in the case of russell he avged the most assists on the UCLA team but only ran point when darren collison was injured early in the season. i dont consider russell a PG myself but a SG with the ability to play point. He was the most aggressive scorer on the UCLA team, he has more of a scoring mentality to him than a passing one, but what did impress me from watching him play was that he was willing to and did play facilitator when he had to when collison went down. the majority of the time he played in college he wasnt a PG

    I think he would be a great backup guard in the league who can play either back-up point or 2 guard, but more suited for 2 guard. IF he can improve his PG skills and jumpshot he can be a nba PG but that is a big IF imo. he has to first improve his jumpshot to become more consistent
     
  6. jogo

    jogo Member

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    This analysis backed up by positive opinions of Chalmers and Hill. I like Chalmers a lot. I like Hill too, especially if we want a PG who can create his own shot. From this link: http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=368

    George Hill (6'2" JR, PG, IUPUI)

    Undersized combo guards can be giant killers at NCAA tournament time, but three months later, on draft day, they are a dime a dozen. Hill's standout trait is his ability to efficiently create offense. He used 28.8 of his team's possessions and shot 58 percent on two-pointers and 45 percent from beyond the arc. In other words, Hill can flat stroke it. Beyond that, however, Hill had one of the 100 best-foul drawing rates (60.6) in the country last season--he can take it to the hoop as well. Add it all up, and Hill had the highest offensive rating (125.4) in the nation among high-usage players. His playmaking abilities are in question, though he did rank in the top 250 in assist rate (24.2 percent of teammates' field goals), as is the caliber of competition he faced at IUPUI, but Hill turned heads in Orlando last week and will likely end up as a second-round pick.

    I also think Singletary may be a good 2nd round pick. (same link as above)

    Sean Singletary (5'11" SR, PG, Virginia)

    Hey, Singletary is about the same size of fellow ACC alum Chris Paul, right? He had a history of making big shots for the Cavaliers during his four seasons. As a senior, he posted the 12th-best assist rate (37.7) in the country. He's good at using his body to create contact and drawing fouls, with a 46.6 free-throw rate. His primary drawback is, obviously, his size. The Chris Pauls of the world are a rare breed. Of more concern should be his shooting percentages, which weren't strong in college and translate to be unsightly in the NBA. Singletary shot 45.6 percent on two-pointers and 36.7 percent on three-pointers as a senior, translating to an effective field-goal percentage of 48.7. His raw numbers (19.8 points, 6.1 assists per game) were good, though, and he put them up in an elite conference. The kid's got heart.

    I think I take I'd take CDR with the first pick if he's around. If not, I'd strongly consider Chalmers. Hill and Singletary may be second round picks, but we might have to move up for Hill.
     
  7. DrNuegebauer

    DrNuegebauer Member

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    That article made for interesting reading!

    George Hill and Chalmers were the 'surprise packets' statistically

    I'd say both are NBA projects though - not guys who can come in and help right away.

    If we were to draft either one, I'd want to see them sent to the DLeague to play PG straight away, and learn the position (particularly Chalmers!)
     

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