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Hidden value of a steal

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by phantoman, Mar 25, 2014.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Very flawed. It bring up irreplaceability, but doesn't treat it correctly. It needs to define a replacement level player value instead of going from origin for value for each stat.

    If an average player would score 15 points in an identical situation and you score only 9. Your points actually have a negative value toward team success...just not as bad as if you scored 0 points in the same situation. Because the steal replacement value is very near origin, it will almost always have a positive value.
     
  2. oelman44

    oelman44 Member

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    What I've been saying for a long time is that you have to actually watch Timberwolves games to see how much of an impact Rubio makes. He is an exceptional play-maker, and his play-making ability matched with Loves consistent post scoring makes them a nice pair.

    It sucks Love is probably going to leave because if they could get a nice supporting cast around them they could really contend. I don't think Rubio or Love are overrated necessarily, but obviously the bench is atrocious, Pek and Martin have been inconsistent, and Pek and Love have never worked together as a defensive front court. Brewer is nice in transition, but thats about it. Add a few solid role players to the bench and maybe some high flying wing scorers and Minny has a very different record. They are right at .500 despite a ridiculously poor record in close games.
     
  3. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

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    He failed to mention the players that cheat for a steal and let the offensive player get a wide open layup/dunk.

    There is no way steals are THAT valuable, if a player makes a lot of steals AND is a good defender I can understand their value, but I think a lot of steals are just due to cheating on defense to try to get the steal.
     
  4. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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  5. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    It is possible that a steal could be worth 9 points
    1. Gain a possession 1-3 points depending the outcome of the steal
    2. Reduce the openents possession a possible gain 1-3pt due to addition by subtraction
    3. A steal results in a possession that is way less than 24sec therefore there is an extra possession in the total possible possession in the game. 1-3pts
     
  6. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet
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    So a 19 ppg 10 rpg 0 spg player has the same value as a 0 ppg, 0 rpg, 4 spg player? Somehow that doesn't seem quite right.
     
  7. steddinotayto

    steddinotayto Contributing Member

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    What's the difference between Ricky Rubio getting steal (stopping the other team from scoring) than, say, the entire Minnesota defense actually playing defense and stopping the other team from scoring? The former pads his stats while the latter, with consistency, can be much better than a .500 ball club.
     
  8. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    That article is a bit too long so I only skimmed it. I'm not sure if it's covered, but here's my thought.

    To me the value of the steal is directly proportional to a team's interior defense. It feels like a simple risk-reward.

    Risk - The opposing player blows by you and penetrate to the basket.(opponent high% shot)
    Reward - You gain possession of the ball and get a fast break opportunity(high% shot)

    If you have Dwight Howard in the middle, suddenly the risk becomes mitigated. Perhaps the opponent is only maybe 5% more likely to score. Whereas a fast break opportunity generally increases scoring chances by a ton. OTOH, if your center is Luis Scola, a failed steal is guaranteed a layup for the other side. So suddenly the value of the steal becomes much lower.

    Of course there are players that can recover or understand when to attempt the steal to lessen the impact should the steal attempt fails. These players are definitely All-NBA defenders.
     
  9. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    Ok you're right I was being sloppy. Here is the exact quote:
    'Yes, this pretty much means a steal is “worth” as much as nine points. To put it more precisely: A marginal steal is weighted nine times more heavily when predicting a player’s impact than a marginal point.6'

    The writer does state things more explicitly later but his first sentence is certainly misleading. Why state things that way at all when, if you take out the quotes around "worth", the statement is flat out wrong?

    I'm a big supporter of statistical analysis. I just think that this article is overselling. I also think that the article is trying too hard to justify Rubio's value. He makes a lot of caveats, but Rubio's shooting difficulties are so bad that it's hard to take any discussion about him seriously unless it talks about those problems.
     
  10. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    The argument is that while it's difficult to credit those responsible for good team defense, a single player is likely the cause of a steal. Also, a steal will more often lead to an easy fast break opportunity. With a typical defensive stop, the defense has more time to get set.

    Not that I necessarily agree with how they value a steal, but I think that's the logic.
     
  11. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    9 points is an absurdly high number considering a failed steal attempt stalls or even ruins the team's defensive scheme with no direct punishment to the player who took that risk. Much harder to record that what-if stat but it's felt by everyone.

    It's only an effective stat if you have a defensive anchor like an Asik/Howard/Dream to cover your losses.

    He's an actor posing as a scientist.

    Clearly Hollywood isn't trying hard to find telegenic real scientists to play the role.
     
  12. reliableman

    reliableman Member

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    Off topic, but that statement struck me.
    How is somebody (a mechanical engineer, no less, with experience at Boeing designing a hydraulic pressure resonator suppressor) with a Bachelor's in Science not qualified to be a scientist in your view?
    source: wikipedia...where you can learn everything you want to know and more about somebody in less than a minute
     
  13. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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    An engineer is not a scientist.
     
  14. WinkFan

    WinkFan Contributing Member

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  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    TIL...

    That qualifies him to me, but my bar is low for shill actors. I looked at his bio a few years before and didn't see anything about that or a grad degree.

    I wouldn't call him an expert at anything or even scholarly. His rise to stardom as a passionate geek/"science guy" is similar to Paris Hilton or Kim Kardashian.

    Famous for the sake of being famous without any merit otherwise.
     
  16. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
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    This

    At least be fair and the thief equal rebounds. lol



    Steals are great, but not 9 points great.

    1) gambles that leave opponents open
    2) fouls from reaching (Hakeem did this often)
     
  17. StupidMoniker

    StupidMoniker I lost a bet
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    Rebounds are valued at 1.7 points per rebound, so 10 rebs = 17 pts. 17 from rebounds and 19 from scoring would be 36 points in value. If steals are worth nine points, that would mean 4 steals are worth 36 points, the same as 19 points and 10 boards. If you gave the thief equal rebounds, you would have to compare him to a 36 point scorer (so 36 ppg 10 rpg 0 spg vs. 0 ppg 10 rpg 4 spg).
     

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