Round by Round: Drafted QBs last 15 years. Draw from it what you will, but here are some of my observations. I bolded the QB I considered "hit", at least as far as becoming decent starting quarterbacks, though there are probably some debatable ones. I italicized a few other notable ones. But again, you can look at this and draw your own conclusions. I didn't bold anybody from the last 2 drafts because it's too soon to tell, even if we all assume guys like Luck and Wilson will be good QBs. First, while there are a lot of misses, the hit % in the 1st round is still better than drafting anywhere else. If you put Luck and Griffin in the mix, I put the hit % at around 38% (40% if you want to include Tannehill too). In the 2nd round it's 17% and 16% in the 3rd if you include Wilson and Foles (and Schaub, which I'm sure some of you may not). The only player after the 3rd round to get excited about is Tom Brady. Second, the hit % for the first QB taken is higher at 53% (again, may vary based on who you include as a "hit") Mostly, this is a reference tool to quickly look at and see what caliber of QB has typically been available in each round over the last 15 years. It's easy to say we can find a QB in 2nd or 3rd because of Drew Brees or Russell Wilson, but you're not really looking at what's typically available when you say that. Round 1 2013: EJ Manuel 2012: Andrew Luck, Ryan Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden 2011: Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder 2010: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow 2009: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman 2008: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco 2007: JaMarcuss Russell, Brady Quinn 2006: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler 2005: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell 2004: Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, JP Lossman 2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman 2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey 2001: Michael Vick 2000: Chad Pennington 1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, Cade McNown Round 2 2013: Geno Smith 2012: Brock Osweiler 2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick 2010: Jimmy Clausen 2009: Pat White 2008: Brian Brohm, Chad Henne 2007: Kevin Kolb, John Beck, Drew Stanton 2006: Kellen Clemens, Tarvaris Jackson 2005: (none) 2004: (none) 2003: (none) 2002: (none) 2001: Drew Brees, Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo 2000: (none) 1999: Shaun King Round 3 2013: Mike Glennon 2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles 2011: Ryan Mallett 2010: Colt McCoy 2009: (none) 2008: Kevin O'Connell 2007: Trent Edwards 2006: Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle 2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene 2004: Matt Schaub 2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms 2002: Josh McCown 2001: (none) 2000: Giovanni Carmazzi, Chris Redman 1999: Brock Huard Round 4 2013: Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Tyler Wilson, Landry Jones 2012: Kirk Cousins 2011: (none) 2010: Mike Kafka 2009: Stephen McGee 2008: (none) 2007: Isaiah Stanback 2006: Brad Smith 2005: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors 2004: Luke McCown 2003: Seneca Wallace 2002: David Garrard, Patrick Davey 2001: Chris Weinke, Sage Rosenfels, Jesse Palmer 2000: (none) 1999: Joe Germaine, Aaron Brooks Round 5 2013: (none) 2012: (none) 2011: Ricky Stanzi, TJ Yates, Nathan Enderley 2010: John Skelton, Jonathan Crompton 2009: Rhett Bomar, Nate Davis 2008: John David Booty, Dennis Dixon, Josh Johnson, Erik Ainge 2007: Jeff Rowe, Troy Smith 2006: Ingle Martin, Omar Jacobs 2005: Dan Orlovsky, Adrian McPherson 2004: Craig Krenzel 2003: Brian St. Pierre 2002: Randy Fasani, Kurt Kittner, Brandon Doman, Craig Nall 2001: Mike McMahon, AJ Feely 2000: Tee Martin 1999: Kevin Daft Round 6 2013: (none) 2012: Ryan Lindley 2011: Tyrod Taylor 2010: Rusty Smith, Dan LeFevour, Joe Webb, Tony Pike 2009: Tom Brandstarter, Mike Teel, Keith Null, Curtis Painter 2008: Colt Brennan, Andre Woodson 2007: Jordan Palmer 2006: Reggie McNeal, Bruce Gradkowski 2005: Derek Anderson 2004: Andy Hall, Josh Harris, Jim Sorgi, Jeff Smoker 2003: Drew Henson, Brooks Bollinger, Kliff Kingsbury 2002: JT O'Sullivan, Steve Bellisari, 2001: Josh Booty, Josh Heupel 2000: Marc Bulger, Spergon Wynn, Tom Brady, Todd Husak, JaJuan Seider 1999: (none) Round 7 2013: Brad Sorensen, Zac Dysert, BJ Daniels, Sean Renfree 2012: BJ Coleman, Chandler Harnish 2011: Greg McElroy 2010: Levi Brown, Sean Canfield, Zac Robinson 2009: (none) 2008: Matt Flynn, Alex Brink 2007: Tyler Thigpen 2006: DJ Shockley 2005: James Kilian, Matt Cassell, Ryan Fitzpatrick 2004: John Navarre, Cody Pickett, Casey Bramlett, Matt Mauck, BJ Symons, Bradlee Van Pelt 2003: Gibran Handan, Ken Dorsey 2002: Seth Burford, Jeff Kelly, Wes Pate 2001: (none) 2000: Tim Rattay, Jarioius Jackson, Joe Hamilton, Billy Volek 1999: Michael Bishop, Chris Greisen, Scott Covington
2002 and 2007. In hindsight, there weren't any decent QBs in either of those drafts. 2013 could end up that way, but unlike those other drafts, people knew it was a weak QB class going in and none of them were drafted that high.
Bookmarked, for every time someone brings up the foolish idea that it is easy to get a good quarterback after the first round. Anybody who bets that they are going to hit on even a second or third rounder (much less later on) is effectively betting their life savings on a quick pick for the Texas lottery.
bigtexxx's takeaway: 1. Your best chance of success is in the first round (vs. other rounds). 2. However, less than 50% of QBs taken in the first round turn out to be stars. 3. Anything past round 3 has horrible odds, and even round 3 itself has only in the past couple years provided any winners (Wilson, Foles, Glennon...still early on all 3).
Must spread rep. Thanks for taking the time to do this. Makes sense in a QB centric league that the hit % is higher in the first. When teams find one they like, they draft him.
That's debatable, it's not like they were going to pull the plug on Carr after just 2 or 3 seasons. The correct course correction should have been to not pick up Carr's option after the 2005 season and sign Brees as a FA. I wonder how good he would have been under Kubiak... probably not as good as he's been with Payton, but still better than what we've had.
You need to be more specific... We have the #1 overall pick... Yes Rodgers was a first round pick but he was drafted with the 24th pick. Big Ben was drafted with the #11 pick. These are QBs drafted with the #1 overall pick going back to 1990 _ Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Payton Manning, Tim Couch, Mike Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Jamarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Andrew Luck.... Payton and Vick are the only two QBs that can be considered elite out of that group. And although Eli got lucky twice _ Payton,Vick, Cam, and Luck are the only franchise QBs on that list (if you want to include Bledsoe _ fine). That's 4 - 5 guys out of 14... Those percentages suxk.... And just looking at recent history.... Russell and Foles are doing just as well as Luck and RG3.... And Dalton and Kapernick are doing just as good as Cam... Geno Smith wasn't spectacular last year but he got his team to 8-8 with no weapons to throw to. Cousins was a 4th round pick and some team may trade for him and bring him in as a starter. The young kid out in Tampa looked pretty good and Oakland beat us with some kid off the street. Odds are when you spend a #1 pick on a QB _ it won't work out...
It's easy to look at percentages and just wanna quit the practice altogether (what...you're telling me that we have a ONE in THIRTY TWO chance to win it all next year?! screw that), but it would be the biggest statistical fallacy you could make in this situation. We're not drafting 100 quarterbacks and trying to maximize our hit rate. We're drafting one dude that we have to make a decision on. Can Bridgewater be the next Brady or is he a scrub? Can Manziel be the next Wilson or is he a scrub? It's without question, the way QB is treated in this league, that it needs to be addressed at some point--with probably your first pick in the draft--if you want ANY chance at a championship. So in that case, the question becomes, do we address it this year, or next? Because I really don't feel comfortable rolling with a guy that would be available at 2-1. Then again, I don't follow college football. I don't know if there's a diamond in the rough in this class. We could probably be decently competitive picking an "athletic" run-pass QB over a possible franchise one, for a couple years at least. But it doesn't sound like Bill O'Brien would tolerate such a strategy. Hey, good news! We hired a coach who is a QB specialist; maybe we can put the decision of who the next QB will be in his hands. Then again, our last coaching hire was also supposed to be a QB guru .
Well, if you make it to the playoffs that means you have a chance to win the super bowl. Payton, Smith, Cam, and Luck are the four #1 overall picks that made it to the playoffs this year with Rivers also being drafted in the top 5. That leaves Kapernick, Brady, Brees, Russell, Foles, Dalton all being drafted after the first with Rodgers being drafted with the 24th overall pick. So no, you do not have to draft a QB with a high pick to have a chance to win. And not too long ago people thought the Texans were a super bowl contender with a QB drafted in the 3rd round. Usually the QB who most everyone says is the best pro prospect coming out of college _ usually isn't. And just because you draft a quarterback because Mel and Tod have them ranked high doesn't always mean you will land a Luck or Cam with that #1 pick _ it could end up being a Carr, Sam Bradford, or Alex Smith depending on the QB draft class... I really like Johnny and I like Bridgewater but not at a price of a #1 pick and Tajh Boyd is probably better than both of them and he can be had in a later round.
What % of playoff teams over the last 5 years have gotten there with a drafted QB vs. a QB acquired by other means? Drafting a QB is great... if you get the right one. If you don't, you don't realize it for 3-5 years as you have to make some sort of commitment to allowing them to grow. Usually a QB acquired via other means (trade/FA), while it is a rare opportunity to get one of the greats (Brees, Manning, ALEX SMITH!)... usually has a higher success rate because you already sorta know what you're getting (although Manning and Brees have far exceeded expectations).
The problem with trade is that you generally have to find a trade partner that has two good/great QBs. The problem with FA is that you can't control who's a free agent, so you might spent 3-4 years waiting for a Manning/Brees/Smith to show up on the market, and when they do, you're competing against every other team for that player. For example, who's available for trade/FA this year that's worth taking? The only name that's ever come up was Kirk Cousins, and he's more of a risk than the #1 pick given that he wasn't nearly that highly thought of just a year ago. With the draft, especially when you have the #1 pick, you're in total control of the process.
The bolded part is true. But the whole point of this thread is to demonstrate that while it's not necessary, you have a much higher chance of success with drafting a QB with a high pick than otherwise. Far more QBs are drafted in rounds 2-6 than round 1, so of course there will be more successes - but there's also far, far more failures. The whole "necessary" angle is silly - nothing is necessary in football. You could theoretically win with a scrub at QB. It doesn't mean it's a good way to go or that your odds are good.
All true... just assessing how championship contending teams are built. Not all playoff teams find, or need to find, their QB via the draft. Sure, its the "easiest" way... but by no means is the highest % success rate. Nor am I saying they should just wait till a future HOF QB comes on the market... that doesn't make a lot of sense either. There is no "right" and "wrong" answer. If the Texans draft a dud this year, doesn't mean it was the "wrong" choice, just a bad outcome. And simply having total control of the process never guarantees that you're making the correct decision. O'Brien knows that if he drafts a QB #1 that ultimately fails... he will be fired. I do feel the QB choice should entirely be his decision.
Yea but you're talking about a general 1st round pick _ I'm talking about the #1 overall pick which we have and the percentages for QBs taking with the #1 pick are horrible. In the past 24 years 14 QBs have been taking with the #1 overall pick and only two of them have rings (the Mannings). But it's more about the draft class and evaluation than percentages. Take the 2011 draft... Ponder, Gabbert, and Locker were drafted in the 1st round and all three teams who drafted them need a QB... Kapernick and Dalton were drafted in the 2nd round and their teams are in the playoffs.
