MLBPA could easily remedy this situation by allowing pre-draft physicals by mutually agreed upon physicians. And if the PA put pressure on Close & Aiken to not sign for X dollars, then all they accomplished was leaving $8M of guaranteed money on the table that would have gone to players, but now will not.
But, might not be easy to find a mutually agreed upon physician, especially if one side really wants a physician that will help out their side And it would be a lot tougher to do that in baseball as opposed to football and basketball. Not only are many of these baseball guys still playing their seasons as we get to the draft, there are so many more of them going into the baseball draft I agree with you in principle, just don't see that happening As for the last point, yes they did leave the 8 million on the table, but from the PA standpoint it's obviously much more about not setting that precedent
If you don't see it happen, you have to accept that situations like the one with Aiken are bound to occur.
The players association has always taken a polarizing stance on draftees.... while they want them to make money, they really don't want them breaking the bank (hence why they conceded this draft-pool-slot format that really forces the "best" draftees to ultimately get less than what they could have before). They "care"... but they also want these players to earn it before they take away potential money that can be given to established MLB players. In this case, I don't think the actual "physician" would have mattered... they all would have seen the same MRI which showed the same "abnormality". There's just not enough medical evidence or case report history (I did look it up) to see if a "short" UCL can predict a future injury or surgery, or make a future surgery more difficult. But yes, a pre-draft physical would have had the Astros picking somebody else... but I don't think the "finding" is bad enough that it knocks Aiken out of the top 5 (as I said before, would be interesting to see if other teams would have backed away with the same MRI report). If it was truly that bad, team Aiken (as "butt-hurt" as they were), would have had to do the logical thing and take the money. The fact that they didn't (along with the Astros upping their offer at the last second) says more about the "unknown" factor of the abnormality vs. the "negative" aspect.
I don't blame Aiken one bit if he refused to sign that back paddling offer. If the Astros used his UCL as a negotiating tool then shame on them and after going from $3 million to $5 million in a span of 24 hours you can't say they didn't. If they were really concerned about Aiken's health they wouldn't have budged from $3 million. Money ain't everything especially money from a club you don't respect.
Yes the would have, if it got him to sign. $5M would have allowed them a chance at 3 prospects. It speaks more to what they realistically would have offered Marshall under the old system.
The Astros put themselves in that position by selecting Marshall (when many other teams passed) in the first place. They also were not going to be in position to sign him had Aiken not had the abnormality on the MRI... thus the ONLY way they get Marshall is if they convince themselves, along with team Aiken, that there is a significant enough "problem" that Aiken should take less. Obviously, team Aiken wasn't convinced of this... and many saw the ulterior motive the Astros had to having Aiken take the reduced offer (the getting 3 prospects instead of one), which probably soured them as well. Had Aiken had a significant enough injury, he likely signs not only the reduced offer, but the last-second raise. They knew what the Astros wanted to do with the "savings" and didn't give in... especially since they don't believe the original "abnormality" on the MRI will ultimately affect his career.
This. It's just about risk management. The Astros believed Aiken's UCL increased the risk associated with him. They felt signing 2 other high upside HS pitchers would mitigate that risk. I don't get why the situation is so confusing. It's messy sure, but if they planned to do this the whole time they wouldn't have come to an agreement (pending a physical) with Aiken and Nix. They would have performed the physical before serious contract talk and cited the small UCL at that point, low-balling Aiken. Marshall was drafted originally as a back-up plan to Nix.
Slot for pick #1 was 7.92m. Slot for pick #5 was 3.85m. "Unknown" can be negative or neutral. It's almost certainly not a positive. But given that the Astros will likely have 2 of the top 4 picks in next year's draft, team Aiken will have to hope that the other 2 teams in the top slots don't care at all about the abnormality. Otherwise, he gave away millions of dollars by not signing for the final $5m offer.
And that's the Astros defense... but its messy in large part due to the way they handled it. Its even messier if you believe that the Astros leaked the injury along with trying to out the agent in order to try to get him to take the $3 million, And you cannot say without a doubt that it will not affect future relationships, their overall reputation amongst players, and their future ability to play the draft-slot-money pool game in subsequent drafts. Those aspects should also be considered when evaluating risks. IMO, the possibility of an Aiken injury still doesn't outweigh the potential upside along with avoiding all of this blowback. And theres still the matter of trying to figure out how to make a really bad team good again... and apparently having the #1 pick isn't as important to the grand plan as it once seemed to be (or at least was justification for what was happening at the MLB level).
If not, that's how much he'd rather pay or give up to NOT sign with the Astros. Personal relationships and dealings CAN sometimes outweigh money. In the end, though, the "unknown" will always play a role in the drafting of any HS or even college prospect. Was Strasburg's UCL totally fine before he needed surgery just 1 year later? (and he got more guaranteed money in the pre-slot era). Same goes for Jose Fernandez? I don't think enough is known amongst the widespread medical community in "testing" these UCL's to play a role one way or the other (and there's almost zero information on "small" UCL's)... plus, team Aiken has a chance to get another year (or 3 years) of tangible evidence (his pitching performance) to support their cause.
They also took Virant & Hinojosa back in 2012. It actually makes sense for a team to do that. What if Nix had been the one with the health concern? They could have turned around and got Marshall as a backup.
I agree it makes sense... but only when its a strategy truly used as a "backup", and not when it starts to (transparently) affect negotiations with the first pick in the draft (where you then force yourself into an all-or-nothing scenario).
RE: the part in bold, has it been confirmed that the Astros weren't saying that Aiken is currently injured, but rather if he was to be injured at some point in the future, the effectiveness of Tommy John is unknown in repairing his arm? I think that is a big distinction, and I'd really be curious about how other teams would have diagnosed the situation. I guess that is the $6.5MM question!
That isn't gonna make Aiken's bank account any heavier I hate that crap...because it's the agent putting his own needs or the needs of someone else (like a big union of athletes who already getting their millions) in front of his own client.
What if he was just offended and decided he didn't want anything to do with the Astros for 6 years of his career? You can't blame him for that.
The player, and his family, still has the final say... from what I read, his family was heavily involved in his career development and from what we know, they may have been the ones to stop the negotiations.
Astros can't confirm anything. According to Close, he isn't injured. It figures to just be a question of how his tiny UCL will hold up against the test of time. I think it important to remember that Aiken's coaches/advisers worked hard to keep him on strict pitch counts and a diminished workload to protect his arm. Makes me wonder if they knew about his small UCL, but also makes me wonder how it will hold up when he's asked to throw over 100 pitches every 5th day.
