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[Wages of Wins] Does Houston Really have that Big of a Problem?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Hayesfan, Aug 13, 2009.

  1. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Contributing Member

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    http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/08/13/does-houston-really-have-that-big-of-a-problem/

     
  2. NotInMyHouse

    NotInMyHouse Contributing Member

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    Good refreshing read. Makes me feel optimistic still for this season. I think the Rockets will surprise some people.
     
  3. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I have a hard time making sense of his Wins Produced metric. According to him, Brent Barry was an above average player last season, while Aaron Brooks actually hurt us.

    He did win TrueHoop's Stat Geek Challenge, or whatever its called, for the 09 Playoffs.
     
  4. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Contributing Member

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    There's an explanation for his WP numbers at the bottom of the linked page. To be honest I can't pinpoint it, but something in them seems skewed. Not just because AB has such a low WP number for last year.

    He also has a new stat he's been working on to assign position adjusted values to account for defense...

    http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/02/25/introducing-pawsmin-–-and-a-defense-of-box-score-statistics/

    Edit: I probably need to read his book to understand, but to be honest it's not at my library and I don't want to buy it ;)
     
  5. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Member

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    This is the problem I have with "efficiency hawks" like the people behind Wages of Wins. The formulas they use don't really differentiate between, say, shooting 1 for 2 from the field, and shooting 5 for 10. It's like they assume that a player's efficiency will remain constant even if their usage rate goes up. Thus, they tend to overrate the Battier's of the world.
     
  6. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Many people do. I think I remember during that podcast with Morey and Simmons, one or both were mocking it.
     
  7. Dei

    Dei Member

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    I really do believe that we could've beaten Denver and Orlando if we had triumphed over the Lakers.
     
  8. lovemolly

    lovemolly New Member

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    AB and Scola are keys, if they can lead the team,we will get a surprise.
    Wish T-mac to be healthy! :)
     
  9. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I was looking forward to him mentioning how the increased usage will affect the players, but apparently he never said anything.

    I'm pretty sure if you take a look at all the beating-the-clock shots last year, most were likely taken by Yao, Artest, and T-Mac. And probably Brooks. Those type of shots are going to dramatically lower the efficiency of our current cast, since we have no one else to take them.
     
  10. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    Hollinger actually commented on this before, and he basically said that, with the exception of people for whom too small a sample size was drawn (like Ronald Murray three years ago or Anthony Morrow two years ago), players' efficiencies generally go UP the more minutes they get, because they have more of a chance to 'get in a rhythm' so to speak. You play someone 10 minutes versus 20 or 30, and I think it's a perfectly reasonable to expect an NBA-level athlete to maintain his level of play over the increased span of playing time. Over 30 minutes and you get into the area that might start to separate the better athletes from the worse; there I could see an argument being made for efficiency going down as players have to pace themselves more. But up to 30 minutes? Suck it up and play. At least they'll be warmed up and not cold like Luther Head in the playoffs.
     
  11. sbyang

    sbyang Member

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    I have a different problem with the wages of wins data: it produces wacky results, like before when he was insisting that Bynum was better than Kobe or something. To me that's the way you tell if a stat is working or not, if the results of the stat make sense. Hollinger's PER stat seems to have figured it out, while this wages of wins stuff needs to be refined.
     
  12. Tmac1KD35

    Tmac1KD35 Member

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    What I think, IF t-mac returns early and plays at a high level, I think this team has nothing to worry about at all, Look what t-mac did in 07-08 he took these rockets and helped them win 22 games in a row and about half of that was when yao was out. Then look back in 02-03 when he played for the magic, now its most likely that he wont play at that level ever again, but heck look who he had for teammates that year, I bet half of that roster isnt in the NBA today, he took them over .500 and took detriot to seven games, that was just a comparison now clearly this team right now with yao out is still way more talented then his old orlando magic team so you put a healthy him thats hungry for redemption on this team with brooks developing good and ariza hopfully improving even more, I bet it will surprise some people. I bet they can win 50+ games.
     
  13. Canadiandude

    Canadiandude Member

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    Houston's Big Problem has been exiting early in the playoffs. So yes, Houston still has a that big of a problem.
     
  14. Rocket86

    Rocket86 Member

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    This article proves that this team is built to compete. The pieces are in place but because of injuries, others can step in and keep the ship afloat. :)
     
  15. jlwee

    jlwee Member

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    Basketball is more than mathematics.

    Scola average 12 points per game last season doesn't equal to 20 points per 48minutes. Just like Kobe + Gasol + Artest + Odom + Bynum doesn't equal to 2009-2010 Championships.

    Stats are meant for a reference most like to measure a player contribution or team success. But there are alot unknown factors in basketball like injuries, fatigue, defense etc etc.

    I like Scola. If you made him the main scorer of the Rockets this season I am sure his FG% will drop significantly due to fatigue and opposing teams' defense!
     
  16. alex09xu

    alex09xu Member

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    who cares about numbers. you just watch them and ifthey own then they own. if they noob then they noob. pros win noobs lose.
     
  17. JCDenton

    JCDenton Member

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    This also seems to indicate that Ariza is the best player on our squad. A bargain to get him for 5 years at the MLE when he's young and improving.
     
  18. smoove shoez

    smoove shoez Member

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    I think the Rockets swept both those teams.
     
  19. Corpusfan

    Corpusfan Member

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    The problem with your numbers-based analysis is that it assumes these players are going to be playing in the same system, with Yao or McGrady the focal point of the offense, and the others as complementary players. It also assumes none of these young players will show improvement over last year. It's static. But you can't take these players' averages from last year and draw conclusions from that. They're young, improving, and will be used in a completely different way with Yao and McGrady sidelined. They will post vastly different numbers than last year. Some former role players will become the team's primary offensive weapons. I think you have to consider these factors when determining how the team will fare this year. Drawing conclusions about wins and losses based on last year's numbers will not be accurate. The youth of this team and the flashes of potential they've shown, as well as Adelman's coaching, give me hope that they'll be competitive.
     
  20. AroundTheWorld

    Supporting Member

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    I think that this wages of wins thingy has its flaws, but I also think that we will win more games than people think.
     

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