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What will Daryl Morey's Lottery Draft Strategy be?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by crash5179, Mar 25, 2010.

  1. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    Warning Long Post

    I know it may be a little early for draft talk but with the two recent losses I can hear Clutch’s Lottery Generator warming up somewhere in cyberspace. So I am wondering what to expect from Daryl Morey this year since he will have his first lottery pick to use in a draft and several other picks and many ways to package them that should attract trade partners.

    We have all seen what a Daryl Morey draft looks like but only when drafting late first or second rounders. He tends to find guys that none of us are thinking about and tends to draft talent or skill over need.

    Aaron Brooks was drafted because he had a speed and the ability to put the ball in the hoop. Aaron made little since though since we appeared to be stacked at point guard and Aaron almost looked to small to even play in the league.

    Carl Landry was an undersized power forward coming off an injured knee. Not very coveted by most the league but he had a good offensive skill set and some athleticism. He certainly was not on any of our radars.

    Donte Green a player that fit the mold Landry and Brooks, not a great all around game, maybe a one trick pony but being able to score is a pretty damn good and coveted trick once a player proves he can do it in the NBA. Of course he was almost immediately parlayed into Ron Artest.

    Joey Dorsey was a guy that was not projected very high for any team because of all the things he could not do. He was not tall for his position and he had no offensive skills. But because he was built like a tank and could rebound like a machine DM thought he could take that and exploit and make him into someone that could provide something of value and do it exceptionally well, play Defense.

    Jermain Taylor falls into the same mold as Brooks, Landry and Green. A one trick pony that proved he could really put the ball in the basket on the NCAA level.

    Chase Budinger probably the only player that Morey has drafted that had a good all around game. He has prototypical size and exceptional athleticism for a small forward. He had a very good skill set on the offensive end of the floor, good handles, good passer, finishes plays well above the basket and very good outside shot. He was predicted to go in the lottery by some and fell all the way to the 2nd round and I’m still not sure how that happened. Maybe it was his lack of an aggressive personality or the assumption that he would not play defense in the NBA.

    What does Daryl Morey stay away from? The Josh McRoberts types of players are exactly what Morey has avoided like the plague. Josh had prototypical size, decent offensive skill set but not particularly great at anything and just enough college production to make someone think that he could be a rotational player in the NBA. Of course he turns out to have a Hilton Armstrong type of impact where he rides the pine and only comes in the game because there is no one left and soon disappears from the NBA altogether. Essentially the Jack of all trade type of players that do nothing great does not interest DM even if they have prototypical size and athleticism for their position.

    If DM can not get lottery type of talent then he seems to look for the player that has that one thing he does really well but dropped in the draft due to all those things he will probably never do well at all.

    What we don’t know about Daryl Morey is how he will handle a draft when he has a lottery pick and enough ammunition to move up even further in the draft. I would think that in the lottery he will not be drafting one trick pony’s regardless of how good that trick is. I’m guessing if he drafted Carl Landry in the lottery he would want prototypical size and defense to go along with Carl’s offense skill set. I don’t think he would draft Aaron Brooks in the lottery unless he was a couple of inches taller and could play defense. Morey has proven that he can find those types of players lower in the draft. I think he will be looking for a player more along the lines of a Chase Budinger with an attitude, someone with prototypical size, athleticism and a great skill set regardless what position he drafts for. Of course the problem I see is that Morey will not have 3 or 4 years of stats and film to study on guys like that because they tend to come out after there freshman or sophomore years. If DM can move up to draft Cousins he will have to do so with out the knowledge of how Cousins improved from freshman to sophomore because there will be no sophomore year for Cousins. Would DM be willing to spend a lottery pick or two or even three on someone like Demarcus Cousins? How much of a risk is DM willing to take?

    What Daryl Morey has at his expense is a 2010 late Lottery Pick, a 1st round pick in 2011 that could be swapped for New York’s lotto pick and two 1st round picks in 2012 (one a possible lottery). The Stepien rule says that you can not trade away all of your first round picks in consecutive future years. Per the Stepien rule the Rockets can trade this years 1st round pick even though they did not have a 1st last year because a team does not have to account for past years but only future years. Also the Rockets do not have to have their own first round pick as long as they own the rights to someone’s first round pick. So Houston could use this year’s pick, next years 1st round pick and one of the 2012 picks but not both to move up in this year’s draft. To break it down if the Rockets wanted Evan Turner they could offer three consecutive 1st round picks because they would still own a 1st in 2010 and 2012.

    In 2001 CD traded three 1st round picks (late lottery, one mid 1st round pick and one late 1st round pick) to move from 13 to 7 and grab Eddie Griffin. Might 3 potential lottery picks in consecutive years be enough to get you a pick somewhere in the top 5, maybe even top 2 or 3? If so would will Daryl Morey look for upper classmen like Evan Turner or Patrick Patterson that would give him multiple years of stats and film to scour over or would he gamble on someone like Demarcus Cousins who has the talent to be the best center in the NBA in the next couple of years or a bust. Will he go with proven talent or potential? Or would he even be willing to trade that many possible lottery picks for one rookie regardless of what his potential is.

    I tend to think that Daryl Morey probably thinks this is the one time in the foreseeable future to hit a grand slam. I don’t think he will play it safe, I think he will swing for the fences and try to acquire a true superstar. I just don’t know who he values as that but I don’t think he will settle for a 6’8” power forward or a 6’ point guard.
     
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  2. jevon3012

    jevon3012 Member

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    I think the team is at a point where we can gamble a little bit. The Rockets have probably the best collection of role players in the league so I don't think we need to try to draft another "good" player with limited upside. What we really need is a superstar. I think we have to try to pull a Jennings, Roy, or Granger type player out of the draft.
     
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I've been of the same mind for quite some time. I'm thinking Morey goes for Top 5. Those looking to be Wall, Evan Turner, Wes Johnson, Cousins, and Favors. I'm thinking Turner and Johnson are the safe picks. Cousins and Wall have the greatest upside.

    I'd add Sergio Llull and Budinger (if drafting a wing) as other potential parts to a deal to trade up.
     
  4. fumduck

    fumduck Member

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    Very hard to predict. Like you said, Green ended up being Artest. Landry ended up as a Kevin Martin.

    If Morey's plan is winning now with Yao, he might try to find a way to trade the pick and other assets to get one or two superstar caliber player to play along side Yao. At the same time, he might reserve something in the pocket to still collect a few players to help rebuild in the event we need to so a hurry.

    The possibilities are endless, so I am glad DM is running the game!

    I'm too stupid and emotional after a game of NBA2k9, listening to "Real Men of Genius"
     
  5. Yetti

    Yetti Contributing Member

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    He might make two big trades and use all of our picks as stufffing + 4 of our current players. :p
     
  6. rockets934life

    rockets934life Contributing Member

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    1) Trade lotto pick as part of a package to obtain a star level talent, Bosh, Jefferson etc...

    2) Use current lotto pick plus a Knick pick and possibly a player to move up in the draft.

    3) Use Lotto pick to trade for a key role player.

    I think Morey will try his hardest to trade for a star using this year's pick but if not then he will try REALLY hard to trade up and get a Big like Cousins, Favors or Monroe.
     
  7. The_Yoyo

    The_Yoyo Contributing Member

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    I may run the risk of revealing Morey's secret but here it is hopefully he will still talk to me after this

    [​IMG]
     
  8. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Morey does not draft on need. He drafts on talent thinking that he can trade those assets for something he needs. He's accumulating assets just like he did in Boston so he can be in the best position to get in on the next KG type trade.
     
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  9. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    Interesting enough Thread. Here's my take on DM the GM's quandary: there are good players at every position. Only Yao could be classified as (near) great and he is what he is. Martin is top tier. Brooks (and Lowry) the emergent. Scola is Mr Intangible, as is, of course, Shane. Trevor is a nice piece. Bud and Hill are nice looking futures. Lots of (prospectively) good draft choices.

    What DM the GM must do IMHO is to parley the pieces and get a great, a true stud. Is Bosh (enough of) an upgrade over Luis? I don't think so, particularly when the cost of getting CB4 would be so steep. But maybe Paul Pierce would be (if C's flame early might PP be on offer?).

    IMHO a stud is requisite and unless ping pong magic occurs then there will be a trade (again) IMHO.
     
  10. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    keep in mind that morey usually surprised us because after the lottery picks it's pretty much a guessing game.....if we're getting a lottery pick though i'd expect it will be easier to guess his choice, especially as the draft gets closer and closer.
     
  11. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    The one thing is that I have come to trust Daryl Morey. I honestly believe he will make a good decision. I think Morey would love to add Bosh to the team and I believe that is number 1 on his wish list.

    Theoretically he could stand pat and draft the best player available at 13 and use Scola, next seasons 1st rounder (which will likely be a lottery pick) and one of the 1st rounders in 2012 to try to lure Bosh away from Toronto in a sign and trade.

    The problem is that the Rockets will not know if Bosh would do a sign and trade to come to Houston until after the draft. If the option to move up and grab Turner, Cousins etc happens I don't think Morey would pass that up unless he knew Bosh was a sure thing.
     
  12. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

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    All I ask is that he not trade the lottery pick for a role player.
     
  13. crash5179

    crash5179 Contributing Member

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    I think Paul Pierce is entrenched in Boston. As long as he is good to great I don't think Boston would ever trade him. He is probably the most beloved player on that team since Larry Legend. But if they were to decide to trade him you would have to ask yourself a couple of questions:

    1. can acquiring him get you a championship in the next couple of years
    2. how much time does he have left as an elite player

    I'm not sure what the answer to either of those questions would be but I would trade the whole team for just one championship. Having said that I don't think there is a chance Boston trades him.
     
  14. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    After convincing Alexander and CD to trade Rudy Gay and Swift for Battier, he has apparently learned from his mistakes.

    He now trades late 1st round/2nd picks for star players.

    1) He went with Donte Greene as the best player available and traded him for Artest after a few summer league games.

    2) He drafted Landry early in the 2nd and traded him 2.5 years later for Martin.

    If he trades the 14th pick, the target player will be better than Artest and Kevin Martin. No more lottery picks for no-stats all-stars. Morey got burned bad.
     
  15. desi tmac91

    desi tmac91 Member

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    We've seen Morey try to move up into the top 5 last season but failed because we just didn't have enough. It will be interesting what he does with a full loaded arsenal coming into a deep, deep draft. A top 5 pick is certainly reasonable but I see only a handful of teams that will deal with us.
     
  16. mdoggnic

    mdoggnic Contributing Member

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    The first thing he should do is ask Steve francis to represent the Rockets AT the draft lottery. Stevie is our good luck charm...he got us Yao.
     
  17. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    I think morey may trade all of the "potential" for a sure thing in the NBA. In other words he may create a package revolving around picks and youth for established players.
     
  18. rimshot

    rimshot Member

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    draft potential....then sign and trade for bosh or amare!
     
  19. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    On the one hand Paul Pierce was used as an example; NOT a 'trade thread'.
    On the other hand Ainge did in one summer what resulted in one parade. Was it worth it? I'd say YES if DM the GM could effect the same result.
     
  20. xiki

    xiki Contributing Member

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    Does Amar'e really get your blood boiling for a Parade? He's fun to watch, but still a taco short of a combo plate.
     

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