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[ESPN-Insider request] Two-way players to build around

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by phantoman, Apr 28, 2011.

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  1. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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  2. Arvid

    Arvid Member

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    Tentpole players to build around

    Last week, we witnessed Zach Randolph, a perennial 20-point and 10-rebound player on a playoff team, sign a big-time, four-year extension worth an annual $17.8 million. That kind of money is only reserved for a franchise player, or what I like to call a tentpole -- a player a team can build around who is productive on both ends of the floor.

    But is Randolph really a tentpole? Yes, he's a tentpole as sturdy as his frame. Considering both ends of the floor, there's substantial evidence to suggest he's a better long-term option than, say, Amare Stoudemire, who loves to score but loves to see his opponent score, too.

    How can we tell? As observers of the game, our perceptions are skewed to reward offense, since that's pretty much all we can find in the box score. To curb those biases, I've created an all-in-one value metric that takes PER a step further, expanding our scope on defense. For the offensive component, we'll use offensive PER, a cousin of John Hollinger's PER, which you can find on 82games.com, that strictly looks at offensive production (no blocks or steals considered).

    Defense is less straightforward, so we'll need to call in the ringers. We'll package together three of the most comprehensive defensive metrics in the public forum: opponent PER, which tells us the PER of a player's counterpart in the opposing lineup; defensive plus-minus, which tells us how the team defense improved with a player on the court; and Synergy Sports' defensive efficiency rating, which uses countless hours of scout video tracking to assess a player's defensive acumen. I combined the three ratings to come up with a rating that ranges from 1 to 100, in which 50 is average and 100 is the cream of the crop. That's the defensive component. Both are on a 100-point scale.

    As you might have guessed LeBron James (100 offense, 97 defense rating) and Dwight Howard blow out the competition in this metric, but there are some other players who warrant your attention for their two-way play. Let's take a look at five players who deserve more tentpole recognition.

    FRANCHISE TENTPOLE PLAYERS

    Zach Randolph -- Offense 94, Defense 65
    Randolph has often earned the reputation of being a temperamental stat-padder who only plays when he feels like it. But since being released from the clutches of Isiah Thomas and the New York Knicks (who gave us this amazing clip), the 29-year-old has been one of the most productive players in the NBA. Few players can match Randolph's consistency and high level of play.

    Sure, he's not the best help defender out there, but while he's putting up 20 and 10 every night, all of the available defensive metrics consider him average or slightly above average on that end of the floor. The Grizzlies' defense is essentially unchanged when he leaves the court (allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and 106.5 points when he's on the bench), and when it comes to defending the post-up Synergy Sports places him in the top-third in the league in defensive efficiency. He's easily a top-20 player in the league, and now he's getting paid like it.


    LaMarcus Aldridge -- Offense 97, Defense 79
    Judging by his PER alone, Aldridge should have been an All-Star this season. But once we consider his defensive impact, he's entering top-10-player territory. When we talk about players who were most valuable to his team this season, we tend to leave Aldridge out of the discussion, and I'm not sure why. Looking at his plus-minus numbers, his impact on the Portland Trail Blazers was off the charts this season, as the team played about 15 points per 100 possessions better with Aldridge on the floor (fifth best in the league).

    And it's not just because he can score anywhere inside the arc. The 25-year-old has been a staunch defender, despite splitting his minutes between his natural position at the 4 and the center spot. Synergy rates him as the fourth-best defender in the pick-and-roll among those with at least 200 plays defended, which is a huge improvement from where he was a season ago. He doubled his block rate this season -- the Blazers are 5.5 points better per 100 possessions defensively with him on the court -- and he's entering his prime. Tentpole.

    Kevin Garnett -- Offense 91, Defense 95
    How do we continue to underrate this guy? Forget blocks and steals. Garnett is probably the best defender in the league outside of Howard, providing a great example of why the box score comes up short in defensive analysis. Take any defensive metric and they all uniformly agree that he's about as good as any player in the league at point prevention.

    The Celtics maintained their No. 2 spot in the defensive efficiency rankings, even after Kendrick Perkins left, thanks to Garnett still anchoring the back line. Whether it's defensive plus-minus, opponent PER or Synergy video data, you name it and Garnett ranks among the league leaders. No big man pays more attention to detail in defensive coverage, swarming the ball like a wet blanket and playing the angles like a sunbather. Even at his age (he turns 35 in May), you'll be hard-pressed to find a stronger two-way foundation to build around.

    Andre Iguodala -- Offense 65, Defense 95
    LeBron will tell you that only two players have averaged 14 points, five rebounds and six assists this season: himself and Iguodala. It's fitting the two have gone head to head in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, because in many ways Iguodala is LeBron Lite, a wing player who impacts the game in so many ways on both ends of the floor.

    Iguodala's reputation has swung like a pendulum over the past few seasons, from underappreciated to overpaid to underappreciated again. Sure, he's been hobbled this season, but the 27-year-old still ranks as one of the best defenders in the league. According to 82games, his opponent PER is a league-best 8.8, which means he basically reduces his counterpart to Travis Outlaw-esque production. That's value. Iguodala's ability to guard multiple positions has also helped the Sixers play four points better per 100 possessions with the 6-foot-6 freak athlete on the floor. He may not be a go-to scorer, but he doesn't need to be to have a major positive impact on the game.

    Andrew Bynum -- Offense 92, Defense 98
    He's 23 years old and has posted a PER over 20 over the past four seasons. He is one of the game's best shot-blockers and already has anchored two championship teams. In the context of on-court efficiency and impact outside the box score, Bynum is the best center in the NBA not named Howard, and he also may be the most overlooked.

    Look at what he's done to the Lakers' defense, especially in the playoffs. With Bynum on the court in the postseason, the Lakers have allowed just 101.3 points per 100 possessions against Chris Paul and the Hornets. When Bynum sits, the Hornets drop 117.2 points per 100 possessions. Along with Howard and Garnett, Bynum is the only big man this season to rank in the top 15 percent in each of the three defensive metrics. He's about as efficient as it gets on the block, and he'll only refine his game as he enters his prime in the next few seasons. The only obstacle standing in his way? The health of his knees. Oh, that and Kobe's regular hijacking of the offense.

    FAUX FRANCHISE ONE-WAY PLAYERS

    Amare Stoudemire -- Offense 94, Defense 18
    [+] Enlarge
    Steve Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images
    There's no questioning Amare Stoudemire's ability on offense. But his defense leaves a lot to be desired.
    The classic all-offense, no-defense player. Sure, Stoudemire has upped his block rate to heights he hasn't seen since 2007-08, but there's more to defense than swatting a couple of shots per game. Dig deeper and you'll find his defensive liabilities almost completely compromise his other-worldly exploits on the other end of the floor. Consider this sobering fact: The Knicks were 5.8 points better per 100 possessions offensively with Stoudemire on the court this season, but the defense became 5.6 points worse. Basically, it was a zero-sum exchange.

    That isn't anything new. In 2009-10, the Phoenix Suns were 2.6 points better offensively with him on the court but 3.8 points worse on defense. His individual and team-based defensive metrics are all terrible, which makes it even more imperative that the Knicks find the next Dikembe Mutombo to compensate. Good luck with that.

    Al Jefferson -- Offense 87, Defense 31
    The good thing is, at 26 years old, Jefferson is still relatively young. That said, he'll need all the time he can get to reverse the harrowing trends. Jefferson had the worst defensive on-court/off-court differential in the NBA this past season, as the Utah Jazz hemorrhaged 111.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the court and just 103 points with him sitting.

    Individually, his counterpart on the opposing team has beaten up on him all season. The average player in the NBA has a 15 PER, but power forwards against Jefferson have posted a 24.4 PER. Centers against Jefferson? 16.6. All the post moves in the world won't do a thing to mitigate his matador act on the other side of the floor.

    Carlos Boozer -- Offense 84, Defense 26
    If you're somehow able to ignore Carlos Boozer's yelling on the court, you can actually hear opposing big men giggle in delight when they get to face the Chicago Bulls' defensively maligned big man. The Bulls have some of the best defending big men in the league in Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik, and there's a reason why the Bulls did just fine with Boozer sidelined this season.

    That isn't just a blip. For three years running now, Boozer's teams play better with him on the bench, despite his lofty scoring and rebound totals. This season in Chicago, the Bulls' defense has been about six points better with him riding the pine. The Bulls have four years and $61 million remaining on his contract.

    Monta Ellis -- Offense 76, Defense 27
    The Golden State Warriors can play Ellis or Stephen Curry but they can't play both. That's what we've learned over the past two seasons, but they continue to trot out the two defenseless guards. If the Warriors need help picking which one to move, it's not even a question: It's Ellis.

    Ellis is the Stoudemire of wing players, posting gaudy point totals but surrendering just as many on the other end. For the second straight season, the high-volume shooter posted abysmal plus-minus numbers, as the Warriors beat opponents by 41 points with him sitting in 2010-11 but lost by 232 points with him in the game. It's time to move on and let Curry blossom.

    Kevin Martin -- Offense 89, Defense 40
    Ironically, Martin is the type of player that requires a Yao Ming-like presence down low to cover up his defensive mistakes. It's safe to say the Rockets had that in mind when they dealt for the hyper-efficient shooting guard at the 2009-10 trade deadline. The basketball gods had other plans.

    Martin's 25.9 points per game average screams franchise player, but there's little else that warrants the label. He's a liability on the defensive side of the ball, as opposing players effectively shot 60.5 percent on spot-up field goal attempts, according to Synergy data. In other words, he's an efficiency machine on both ends of the floor.
     
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  3. MourningWood

    MourningWood Contributing Member

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    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=haberstroh_tom&id=6436240

     
  4. AroundTheWorld

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  5. AroundTheWorld

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    Andrew Bynum Offense 92 :confused:
     
  6. redao

    redao Member

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    The lie was told by the numbers: Martin's offense rating is lower than Bynum's.
     
  7. RoxBeliever

    RoxBeliever Member

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    Great read. So now they have a metric for defense.

    At least among the defensively-challenged players they listed, KM still got the highest--a def efficiency rating of 40.
     
  8. RoxBeliever

    RoxBeliever Member

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    I wonder what Scola's scores would be?
     
  9. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    thanks for posting the article.


    I wonder if we can get Ai this offseason....
     
  10. STR8Thugg

    STR8Thugg STR8Thugg Member

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    Bynum offense: 92

    Kevin Martin offense: 89

    Tom Haberstroh IQ: 0
     
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  11. liljojo

    liljojo Member

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    Their categories should be: Offense, Defense, and Injury Prone-ness

    Also, where's all the guards? CP3? DWill? Rose? And I'm surprised Griffin isn't on the list.

    And everybody knows you can't build a contending team around Kmart. Kmart even said it himself...
     
  12. phantoman

    phantoman Contributing Member

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    I think the point of the article were able players that arent already franchise players... CP3, dwill and rose are.
     
  13. liljojo

    liljojo Member

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    Oh. Then I'm confused as to why KG is on the list... who the heck underrates KG's defense? 1st team defender a hundred years in a row, MVP, DPOY?

    Also, I think Aldridge has plenty of recognition too, deservedly so.
     
  14. lionaire

    lionaire Member

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    :eek: I forget Bynum's only 23!
     
  15. Noob Cake

    Noob Cake Member

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    It is adjusted by position.

    Bynum is better than all but 1-3 centers in the league since there are literally 0 center talent playing in the current era. Ie, Bynum is one of the best offensive centers.

    Martin is elite offensively, but there are other SG out there like Kome and Wade. So lets assume Kobe has 100, then Martin is a 89. Not bad at all.
     
  16. CCorn

    CCorn Member

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    Kevin Martin -- Offense 89, Defense 40

    Monta Ellis--Offense 76, Defense 27

    Now to revive an old thread where someone attacked me because I said I believe Martin is a better player :cool:
     
  17. marky :)

    marky :) Member

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    I like the quote that says Kevin Martin is an efficiency machine on both sides of the court lol.
     
  18. JayZ750

    JayZ750 Contributing Member

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    True, but as he prefaced the article with a Zach Randolph extension news, one must assume he's trying to see which players are worthy of franchise player money, and status.

    Bynum isn't, even if the numbers say he is. You wouldn't pick Bynum over a long list of players to build around, not just because of his injuries. As competent as he can be offensively, you might just as easily build a championship team by focusin on offensive needs elsewhere and filling in your center spot with a Tyson Chandler type, who comes cheaper than your "franchise player" would.

    Whatever the case, even understanding it isn't his offensive metric he created, Andrew Bynum is not a better offensive player, by any measure, than Kevin Martin. From an efficiency perspective Martin is one of the top offensive players in the league. he can not create his own shot as effectively and isn't as clutch, though, another factor not properly accounted for by the stat.

    Still, it's an interesting read. Randolph, Aldridge, Bynum, Garnett and Iguodala...not sure I'd take any of those in my top 10 if given the choice to pick a player to start a franchise with today.
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I'd hardly consider Bynum an anchor for those title winning teams, since he averaged 6 & 4 in 19 minutes and 7 & 5 in 25 minutes.
     
  20. UTAllTheWay

    UTAllTheWay Member

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    I wonder where Orlando would be right now if they had actually been able to pull off a deal for Randolph at the deadline...
     

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