The debate about who should be our starting PG since we landed Lowry has been an extremely hot topic on this board. Let me begin by saying that I have not watched a whole lot of games lately as they have conflicted with my work however I do follow most games with the play-by-play and I regulalry scan the board so I know the general feeling about the issue. The general conensus on this board is that Lowry should start over Brooks. Reasons I have heard given include: Lowry is the superior defender. Lowry is more of a "true PG." I.e. He initiates the offense better. Lowry is able to give the ball to Yao in far better positions. Lowry attacks the basket far better and is able to draw the foul and finish. Lowry is far more under control. Lowry looks to set up his team mates where as Brooks look for his own shot more. I'm sure there are more but they are the ones i could think of off the top of my head. Now as I said, I dont get to watch as many games as I used to, and therefore am not lobbying for either player, rather I am critically analysing the situation to determine who is better for the team. The good thing about the +/- stat is that it doesnt take into account playing time, rather it strictly focuses on how the team performs whilst each player is on the court. One downside of the stat is it doesnt show lineups/matchups, however seeing as though both players regulalry play 20+ minutes a night, its safe to say that neither has the benefit of playing with the first team more often or playing against the other teams bench. Since the trade the rockets have played a total of 19 games, including the loss at Utah today. Therefore, IMO the Plus/Minus stat is an appropriate indication of what both PG's bring to the table. Here is a list of the last 19 games comparing Brooks' and Lowry's +/- figures. Feb 20 Dallas (W) - Brooks: +14 Lowry: -7 Feb 22 Charlotte (W) - Brooks: +20 Lowry: +1 Feb 24 Portland (W) - Brooks: -3 Lowry: -7 Feb 26 Cleveland (W) - Brooks: +17 Lowry: +2 Feb 28 @ Chicago (L) - Brooks: -4 Lowry: -5 Mar 1 @ Minnesota (W) - Brooks: +17 Lowry: -8 Mar 3 Toronto (W) - Brooks: - 3 Lowry: +13 Mar 4 @ Utah (L) - Brooks: - 10 Lowry: + 10 Mar 6 Pheonix (W) - Brooks: +3 Lowry: +12 Mar 8 Memphis (W) - Brooks: +8 Lowry: +9 Mar 9 @ Denver (W) - Brooks: +3 Lowry: -2 Mar 11 Lakers (L) - Brooks: -11 Lowry: +6 Mar 13 @ Charlotte (W) - Brooks: +12 Lowry: -2 Mar 14 San Antonio (L) - Brooks: +1 Lowry: -6 Mar 16 @ New Orleans (W) - Brooks: +5 Lowry: +6 Mar 18 Detroit (W) - Brooks: +12 Lowry: -11 Mar 20 Minnesota (W) - Brooks: +14 Lowry: +4 Mar 22 @ San Antonio (W) - Brooks: +3 Lowry: -1 Mar 24 @ Utah (L) - Brooks: +1 Lowry: -1 Total: Brooks: + 99 Lowry: +13 Average: Brooks: +5.2 Lowry: -0.68 Now, IMO, this stretch of games is long enough to give us a fair idea of how both players play with the team and the success of the team when both players are running the point. Its been quite rare to see both Lowry and Brooks on the court at the same time so its quite safe to say that these numbers are pretty true indications of how each player is performing. Judging by these numbers its pretty clear to say that Brooks is the more effective PG for this team. The +/- proves most points against Brooks wrong, however Clutchfans posters continually bag on him and seem to see Lowry as the premier player. As I said, I have not watched enough of Lowry play to make a decision however these numbers are definatly in favour of Brooks. The +/- is basic, and I have only scratched the surface, but it shows a lot of info and gives us a good indication. So to the posters who are so adamant that Lowry is better for this team going into te playoffs, please state your case. Im eager to hear. Discuss. Matty101.
PS. Sorry ihe fgures in a table (I didn't know how) and i screwed up the list. Im sure you guys understand anyway.
Heres my input. Lowry comes in along with Wafer and Landry at times. I think that fact that Yao or Scola usually go out when Lowry goes in might be the reason for the low +/-. If we are trying to prove that this is the main reason why Lowry's +/- is low, then we need to analyze the +/- for Wafer and Landry. If they are low like Lowrys, then we know his low number is due to the fact he is playing with the second unit. HOWEVER, if Landry and Wafer's numbers are SIGNIFICANTLY higher, then we can start to assume more that Lowry has not been very efficient.
You make a fair point however i touched on that in my post. Both Players get over 20 minutes on most nights (Brooks almost always does) so it is fair to say that both players have played with both lineups. But I do agree, all i have done is just scratched the surface. There is a lot more to analyse, and you have raised a good point. Another thing to note, is that a lot of peope say that Lowry is far better at getting Yao the ball. Therefore we must assume that he is on the court for an extended period with Yao for people to notice this. I cant tell you the exact amount of minutes Lowry is averaging but i know its enough to say that he has played a fair amount with both the bench and the starters.
I just wanna know how these +/- comes from? is there a formula or something? and what is the main parameter?
aaron brooks by far is the most efficient guy on our backcourt, it's actually too hard for Rick to find a reason to demote him to the bench.
lowry is better than ab only at defense. although ab is "a SG/PG combo with a PG's body" as marc vandermeer describes, he still can do much more in offense than lowry can do. But neither of them is as good as those allstar caliber PGs like williams and CP, even not as good as Mo williams. we have no other choice but to let AB play as our lineup PG, rick chose the lesser between two evils. Both Aaron and lowry are good, but they are still too young to act as the commander of our team, they're each more capable than Rafer Alston though.
As far as I know the "+/-" system is not a true indication player ability. It scores a "plus" for the active player regardless of whether he scores it or not. A lot of factors can skew the numbers such as being on the court when a much better player is on too. In our case Aaron Brooks is a starter so in tandem with Ron Artest and Yao Ming, his figures will be inflated. This system is a better indication of player chemistry and determing better 5 man rotations. When we examine Kyle Lowry a player coming off the bench, naturally his plus-minus will suffer as he is on the court with less talented players.
I'm not alone on this but the reason why Lowry should start all points back to one thing:Yao. I'm not happy with the way we are using Yao lately, we reduced Yao to a mere spectator, you can argue with all the usual BS but let be honest here, we have a problem with our guards. I'm extremely unhappy with Artest, but we sort of expect it when we signed Artest. His positives and negatives you have to live with, and lately the negatives seemed to outweigh the negatives. I'm extremely unhappy with Adelman with his coaching decisions and non decisions. He should put a stop to it when Artest and Brooks decide to take over games by going 1 on 5, but he didn't. He should play Deke on a regular basis(the more Deke plays the better it is for us) but he didn't. I'm also extremely unhappy with Yao. You guys know that I'm always a big Yao supporter, I believed in that guy but lately what the hell is the problem Yao? This team is yours now, take it, grab the bull by the horn and run with it. I don't want to see you with this meek attitude and try to skrink instead of being who you are: our leader and the face of the Rockets. Yao, if you let Artest or Brooks be the first option, we are in trouble! The reason I'm not happy because these things I've mentioned are fixable. This season is special, I know we can go far, maybe all the way but we have to fix these problems first and I'm afraid it's easier said than done!
Adelman still let AB as starting PG, but this need to be discussed. AB is tiny, too too tiny, even Chris Paul is heavier than him. But we cant compare AB with CP3, he is a all-star. AB performs much like a SG, at this position he also have problem, his height is not an advantage, since TM out this season, Ron is much better than he ever done as bench leader, shooting percentage has rised alot. In a word---He is better at 2nd unit.
This is like deja vu with Aaron now playing the role of Alston and Lowry playing the role as Aaron... Same tired arguments with +/- and how our back up PG is far better then our starting pg... Did lowry's 0% from the field benefit our team in anyway? Or maybe it was Artest's 5-22... I love Lowry to death but criticizing every single thing this late in the season has got to stop...
I would like to see our starting PG were Deron Williams who is hundreds of pounds stronger than Aaron, but Aaron is the best PG that we can get to play for us, though lowry seems like a better option when facing a beefy PG like Deron and Baron Davis.
Lowry is getting 20-25 mins most nights. There are many times throughout the game where Lowry is in with the starters and his +/- is still no where near Aarons. Its not even close. Its not just about who you play with, because if you are going to use the 'bench' argument, then you also have to consider that often when Lowry is playing with the bench, the opposition is also runnng with their bench, or at least a good amount of bench players. Going by these stats, its quite clear that Aaron is the more productive PG for our team, but again, I have been unable to watch many games lately, hence the thread for discussion.
If you look at Lenovo's five man combinations, Aaron Brooks has spent 369 minutes with starters Yao Ming and Ron Artest while Kyle Lowry has spent 26 minutes with the two forementioned. In light of that, do you think it's fair you're using the plus-minus system? Source: http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22008&split=9&team=Rockets
