First off, this is not a knee-jerk thread. I'm not going to say we can make the 3rd seed because of how we've played against some poor competition. Rather, we could possibly get the 3rd seed because we are a better team from the improved defense alone. Barring significant injuries, our defense is going to be great this year. I mean elite. We have 3 starters who are top 5 defensive players for their position plus some hardworking role players and veterans. T. R. Dunn's coaching a consistent system throughout system will also help greatly. One of our biggest issues on defense last year was 2nd chance points. Many point to T-Jones and Dmo as the culprits and they are partly right. But the bigger factor was Chandler Parsons. Looking at the statistics, Parsons was one of the worst rebounders of any forward in the NBA, especially for someone at his height. This is one of the areas Ariza is far superior in than Chandler. So expect our 2nd chance points allowed to go down. But can this really launch us to the 3rd seed, despite losing Lin and Asik? Yes. Look at the other teams in the West. Which ones do we know for sure are better than us? Spoiler I count the Spurs, Clippers, and OKC. But with KD and Westbrook's injuries, OKC might even struggle to make the playoffs. I think with this advantage, we can expect the Rockets to have a better record than OKC. Out of the other teams, one can make a reasonable case that the Rockets are better. Spoiler Portland won 54 games last year, but only went 23-19 after starting 31-9, a run highlighted by unsustainable 3pt shooting from Matthews and Batum. Portland also might have the weakest bench in the NBA, even worse than ours, and they lost a key contributor in Mo Williams this offseason. They relied on the extraordinary health of their starters, so I easily see them regressing. Spoiler Dallas is going to be a great offensive team this year, but they are going to be bottom feeders on defense. All their hopes on that side of the ball rest on the aging shoulders of Tyson Chandler. That would make me very nervous as a Mavs fan. So though Dallas has improved, their defensive deficiencies will make it difficult to surpass a very capable offensive Rockets with an elite defense. Spoiler A lot of people are high on Memphis I've seen. They were one of the best teams in the NBA recordwise when Gasol was healthy. But they were very poor on offense last year and they could be even worse this year. With no real backup to Conley last year, the Grizz relied on Mike Miller for a lot of their ball handling, who is now on the Cleveland. They did replace him with Vince Carter though. Regardless, I have a hard time believing that such a bad offensive team could keep up with this improved Rockets team. Spoiler Golden State is the only team I see actually having a better record than us. Their record last year wasn't truly indicative of how good they were, especially on defense. They were top 5 on that end last year. That defense could decline with new coach Steve Kerr though, but they are still very talented on that end. I believe Kerr will free the Warriors on offense from the stale piece of bread that was Mark Jackson's offensive system. There is no way a team with that much firepower shouldn't be in the top 10 on offense. Spoiler So I see us getting the 4th seed behind SAS, LAC, and GS based solely on our improvement on defense. I've completely ignored trends we have seen in the first few games such as improved 3pt shooting, the improvement of Terrence Jones on both ends of the ball, and, dare I say it, improved coaching from McHale. I've also ignored reasonable expectations in improved chemistry between Harden and Howard and the fact that Howard has looked as explosive as he ever has. Also, his post up game has quietly looked better these first few games. I expect great things from him. I also expect Harden to be a more willing passer, not just for assists, but to get the offense moving away from stagnant isolations. So we could possibly the 3rd seed (My inner homer: Goddamnit, we're gonna get the 1 seed). So look up Rockets fans, this season might not be as bleak as you thought.
portland was the worst bench in the nba last year, we were 2nd, now both teams seem to be running middle of the road benches, at least from a functional perspective.
I agree generally with your points, but probably a little early to be talking about seeding. You never know what teams will emerge (i.e. the Suns and Kings are off to great starts), which teams will get hit by the injury bug, etc. But regardless of seeding, all the things you mentioned will serve us well in the playoffs. Even if the Rockets end up the sixth seed, if they play defense and execute in the half court like they're capable of, they can beat anyone in the league in a seven game series.
I agree it is too early to try and project where we will end up with much certainty. This is really a response to people saying we should expect to be int the 5-8 range or maybe even miss the playoffs. We might end up there for sure, but looking at the current landscape of the West, we shouldn't restrict our hopes for this team.
I know 1 thing though...... If OKC ends up making the playoffs and they have a 4th-8th seed, nobody is going to want to play them. Especially now that they have another stud in Perry Jones. With the Rockets luck they would be the 3rd seed and OKC the 6th
I realized didn't give much analysis as to why we are better than each team I listed, but I just didn't want to flood y'all with a wall of text. I'm new here lol.
Makes sense. I don't disagree. I'll just add that after last year's experience, I think seeding is less important to me than developing good habits - like defense, half court offense, a transition offense/defense that's under control, less turnovers. And of course health and depth are important too - like developing guys like Canaan and Nick Johnson Even if it means growing pains and losses during the regular season, to me I'd take being a low seed and all those things over what happened last year. I think the Spurs get this, which is why they've won all their titles.
Has Perry Jones looked good this season? I liked him, but when OKC got him I wanted him to do badly so they didn't just destroy every team in the NBA.
Thanks man. And I honestly, I don't put too much weight in coaching during the regular season. Honestly, if you don't have a top 5 coach, he isn't going to significantly improve the team. It's really all about having a consistent system, especially on defense. That was the biggest issue in the playoffs last year, losing Sampson. Hopefully Dunn doesn't skip out on us as well.
The Rockets seeding will depend on their defense. Nothing more and nothing less. If I remember correctly the Rockets were 12th in the league in PPP allowd last season. Certainly not good enough. Houston has to develop a top 5 defense. It is a prerequisite to making it to the finals. Bev, Ariza, Howard. They OK. Harden can be great on defense if he so chooses. PF? Maybe not. LMA, Bosh will torch the Rockets this season. Just like last season.
I agree that Dallas won't be that good. All the NBA analysts are backing them to do well when really their defense is atrocious.
definitely agree with this. I believe the only player we might miss is Lin, even if he was really inconsistent he still was a good 6th man. That being said, Terry, Papa, Dmo, and possibly Canaan could contribute like he did either as a group or solo. Ariza is a better fit than Parsons based on his defense, toughness and 3pt shooting. And Asik played about half a season last year, miserable. So I agree, we are better off than most people think. IMO
Our defense was atrocious last year and it was okay because of our offense. But now dallas has all that offense and it's not okay? Anyways, as much as I hate Dallas and I do think some of their acquisitions are overrated I think they'll be good. I do agree that we have a shot at the 3rd seed ONLY if we get some more bench help during the deadline which I think we will. I don't think PG is as big of a need on THIS TEAM as it would be on others. Think Mario Chalmers with the heat/Fisher with the lakers. When you have a sg thats as good as harden that can facilitate you need a knock down shooter/defender at the point and pat can be that. Also I don't put OKC in that class anymore. You can't afford to lose games in the west and they're gonna lose too many to land a top 3 seed
