My Top-100 Prospects

http://badmanbureau.com/2014/04/01/pre-final-four-2014-nba-draft-prospect-rankings/

Obviously a lot will change in the upcoming weeks/months

 

I'm far from convinced that he can play PG at a high-level in the L

 

I've obviously seen him play. I'm a big proponent of not having your #1 scoring option play at the PG spot, and that plays a role here as well (as he's a scorer first, no matter what you think of his playmaking ability).

He doesn't play with much center-of-gravity (stands upright) and his handle is not compact enough to deal with the CP3s of the world for 48 minutes. He'd be better suited to be a playmaking 2, like Harden (only if he proves himself to be the star he's hyped up to be, of course).

 

Randle is an interesting case, and as the season wore on, I became more and more wary of his faults (many of which were put under a microscope).

Like it's been mentioned, his short arms, his lack of defensive effort (and tools, partly related to his length), and his bully ball game on O were all concerning.

But despite his subpar championship performance, I've come to appreciate that Randle has a standout skill or two (he's a fantastic rebounder, finisher and an explosive face-up threat/driver), while the more well-rounded Noah Vonleh doesn't. That being said, #4-7 on the big board are all very close, and constantly shifting around for me.

James Young helped his stock quite a bit, but his impressive performances don't erase questions about his shot-selection, defensive effort and decision making. But he is young, and shows quite a bit of offensive potential, and that pushes him up into that group of prospects after the top-7.

Here's my updated big board:

Excluding these guys, under the assumption that they're returning:
SG W.Selden
SG M.Hezonja
C D.Johnson
PF B.Portis
C K.Tarczewski
PF B.Johnson
SF R.Hollis-Jefferson
C C.Ridley
SF S.Dekker
SG S.Dinwiddie
C/PF F.Kaminsky
PG/SG J.Grant
PF C.Walker
SG R.Sulaimon

The Top-70:
1. C J.Embiid
2. SF A.Wiggins
3. SF J.Parker
4. PF J.Randle
5. SG/PG M.Smart
6. SG D.Exum
7. PF N.Vonleh
8. SG J.Young
9. PF D.Saric
10. PF A.Gordon
11. SF T.Warren
12. C J.Nurkic
13. PF C.Capela
14. C W.Cauley-Stein
15. SG G.Harris
16. SG N.Stauskas
17. PF M.Harrell
18. SF/PF D.McDermott
19. PF A.Payne
20. SF R.Hood
21. SG/SF P.Hairston
22. SF/PG K.Anderson
23. PG T.Ennis
24. PF/SF J.Grant
25. SG Z.LaVine
26. PG E.Payton
27. SF K.McDaniels
28. PG S.Napier
29. SF/PF C.Early
30. PG V.Micic
31. SF/SG G.Robinson III
32. C A.Hammons
33. C/PF M.McGary
34. SG J.Adams
35. PF/SF A.Poythress
36. SG B.Bogdanovic
37. SG A.Harrison
38. PF C.Jefferson
39. PF/C J.Stokes
40. SF/PF D.Daniels
41. PG/SG D.Kane
42. PG D.Burton
43. SF/SG F.Edwin
44. SG J.Brown
45. SG C.Wilcox
46. SG J.McRae
47. PF/C S.Long
48. PG/SG S.Christon
49. PF D.Powell
50. PG/SG J.Clarkson
51. PG B.Weber
52. C/PF P.Young
53. SF M.Ejim
54. SG A.Dawkins
55. PG/SG R.Smith
56. PG/SG N.Johnson
57. SF T.Antetokounmpo
58. C W.Tavares
59. C J.Bachynski
60. PG J.Carson
61. PG/SG A.Harrison
62. PF/C K.Birch
63. SG R.Marble
64. C/PF I.Austin
65. SF L.Ross
66. SG M.Brown
67. SF/SG L.Patterson
68. C M.Jaiteh
69. PG R.Boatright
70. SG/PG O.Hanlan

 

Thanks, I'd have McDaniels near or at the top of Rockets' targets with our #25th pick. His perimeter game and J aren't particularly developed, but he'd be a great 3rd wing to have behind Harden/Parsons.

Luckily for us, there should be quite a few solid wings available around that pick. I just hope we value defense over more offense this time around.

I've actually just made a rough big board for 2015. It's incredibly early, and like with most sites, it probably overrates the incoming Freshman (assuming their transition is smooth), but here's what it'd look like right now:

* = Incoming Freshman
** = Foreign Prospect
*** = Assuming they return to school

1. Jahlil Okafor* | C | 6'11" 270 | Duke | 18
A rare blend of size, skill, length and post-upside. Motor could improve.
2. Myles Turner* | C/PF | 7’0” 230 | Undecided | 18
Developing on O (shows promise) but already dominant on D. Needs to assert himself on O.
3. Stanley Johnson* | SF | 6’7” 230 | Arizona | 17
Incredibly well-rounded physical wing who plays both ends. J is still developing.
4. Emmanuel Mudiay* | PG/SG | 6’5” 200 | SMU | 18
Freakish Westbrook-like PG who’s an unstoppable penetrator. PG skills are still a work in progress.
5. Cliff Alexander* | PF/C | 6’9” 255 | Kansas | 18
Bull in the paint with athleticism, strength and nastiness. Needs offensive polish.
6. Wayne Selden*** | SG | 6’5” 225 | Kansas | 19
I expect a breakout year. Well rounded, big 2 who just needs to assert himself more.
7. Rashad Vaughn* | SG | 6’6” 195 | UNLV | 17
Athletic 2 with all the tools to be an elite scorer. Needs maturity, strength and polish.
8. Mario Hezonja** | SG/SF | 6’6” 200 | Croatia | 19
Big time scorer who has fairly complete skillset. Lacks length and needs work on D.
9. Kelly Oubre* | SF/SG | 6’7” 190 | Kansas | 18
Has the explosiveness and outside stroke, but is he ready?
10. Dakari Johnson*** | C | 6’11” 260 | Kentucky | 18
Big physical 5 who’s advanced offensively, but he’s not explosive and he needs work on D
11. Justise Winslow* | SF | 6’6” 215 | Duke | 18
Strong athletic glue-guy who can do it all. Does he have the mentality to be more than a role player?
12. Tyus Jones* | PG | 6’1” 185 | Duke | 18
Advanced shoot-pass PG with impressive skillset. Isn’t overly impressive physically.
13. Brice Johnson*** | PF | 6’10” 210 | North Carolina | 19
Long athlete with some offensive upside. Needs muscle and polish.
14. Kristaps Porzingis** | PF | 6’11” 215 | Latvia | 19
Active, long 4 man with range and athleticism. Also needs muscle and polish.
15. Karl-Anthony Towns* | C/PF | 7’0” 245 | Kentucky | 18
Incredible skills for size, but he screams underachiever to me.
16. Bobby Portis*** | PF | 6’9” 230 | Arkansas | 19
Solid but unspectacular young 4 who checks most of the boxes.
17. Jabari Bird*** | SG | 6’6” 205 | California | 19
Smooth 2 with size and solid stroke. Needs to develop ball skills and consistency.
18. Nikola Milutinov** | C | 6’11” 225 | Serbia | 19
Mobile C with developing offensive game. Still a bit of an unknown.
19. Theo Pinson Jr.* | SG/SF | 6’6” 185 | North Carolina | 18
Athletic and energetic wing who needs to add muscle and a consistent J.
20. JaQuan Lyle* | PG | 6’4” 220 | Oregon | 19
Underrated PG who’s huge and a solid playmaker/shooter. Not a great athlete however, and like many others here, he needs polish.
21. Delon Wright*** | PG/SG | 6’5” 175 | Utah | 21
Big, stat-sheet filler at the 1 spot. Lacks range and bulk.
22. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson*** | SF | 6'7" 215 | Arizona | 19
Long slashing wing with great defensive ability. Lacks explosiveness and range.
23. Cameron Ridley*** | C | 6’11” 275 | Texas | 20
Huge body with solid post game. Conditioning and consistency are questions.
24. Marcus Lee*** | PF/C | 6’10” 210 | Kentucky | 19
Raw athletic big with defensive upside. Needs lots of work on O.
25. Rysheed Jordan*** | PG | 6’4” 195 | St. John’s | 19
Big penetrating 1 with athleticism. Jumper and PG skills are still developing.

I like Alexander as well, and he's far more advanced than other “concerning 6’9” athletic bigs” were at his age (see: Thomas Robinson). He looks like a physical NBA-4 that could be a force in the paint for a half-court, defensive team. Right now he still plays more like a 5, and he's going to have to expand his bully-ball style (which will likely work at the CBB level), to become a better NBA prospect. I think he can man the 5 spot at the college level, but he definitely projects as a 4 in the NBA.

His 7’3” wingspan and overall nastiness erase most questions about his height. I think he’s the most likely to put up big numbers next year (of the top bigs), but I like Okafor and Turner more as prospects at the moment.

If Myles Turner commits to KU, I expect Self to start Ellis at the 4, Alexander at the 5, and bring Turner off the bench for around 20-25 mpg.

 

The next few guys after that would be:

Sam Dekker (SF, Wisconsin)
Caris LeVert (SG, Michigan)
Isaiah Whitehead (SG/PG, Seton Hall)
Kasey Hill (PG, Florida)
Juwan Staten (PG, West Virginia)
Chris Walker (PF, Florida)
Zak Irvin (SG, Michigan)
Jarrell Martin (PF, LSU)
Sindarius Thornwell (SG, South Carolina)
Terran Petteway (SF, Nebraska)
Isaiah Taylor (PG, Texas)

 

Kevon Looney (PF/SF, UCLA) and Chris McCullough (PF, Syracuse) are two more freshman to watch for 2015. Both guys have the talent to jump up boards (both 5* prospects by Rivals), but right now I'm not convinced they're ready to declare.

 

Forgot Trey Lyles for whatever reason. He'd be #7 on the 2015 big board