I nailed it, sort of, just days before it happened. I expect Motiejunas to now get traded separately (for a nonguaranteed contract + a second round pick), but you end up with the same result, i.e., Motiejunas + nonguaranteed contracts out, Jason Terry + second round picks in. Followed by Kostas Papanikolaou + Terry + Clint Capela (OR Isaiah Canaan OR Nick Johnson) + draft picks out, big name/big salary guy (e.g., Rajon Rondo) in. Another option would be to package Motiejunas with Terry (plus one or more second round picks) for a relatively expensive, and good (but not great), veteran player, such as Paul Millsap. And then call it a day, at least until February, at which time you may decide to go all in and trade for a so-called "third star." I will try to put together a list of good but not great veterans who can possibly be acquired for a Terry-Motiejunas-2nd rounders package.
Didn't the Rockets acquire two 2nd round picks from the Kings trade? If so, why would they try to trade Motiejunas now for another 2nd round pick?
List of players who can possibly be acquired (right now!) for a package of Donatas Motiejunas, Jason Terry, and the two second round picks acquired from Sacramento (plus, if necessary, Scotty Hopson's nonguaranteed contract, which I believe is the one NOT getting traded to Sacramento): Paul Millsap Kevin Garnett David West Tayshaun Prince Larry Sanders O.J. Mayo Ersan Ilyasova Millsap is presumably the target, or maybe Ilyasova, but do not rule out Garnett, or Sanders. Sanders is your ultimate buy low target, dude was a monster in 2012-13. But Millsap is the best bet.
DMo is too much to give up for any of those guys. Ilyasova should be acquirable for expirings/non-guaranteeds and a couple #2's at MOST. David West might be worth throwing in Terrence but not DMo. Sanders would be a salary dump for MIL. They should have to send out a first to get rid of him. No way should we give up DMo to them for Sanders. Prince would be a salary dump for Memphis. They should have to give up at least a second for getting rid of his salary. OJ Mayo is total trash. He would require the addition of a first rounder going out with him to get him off Milwaukee's books. I wouldn't even want his dead weight on the roster without an additional first round pick that I could trade with him to dump him. Nobody is going to give up anything of value for Mayo. KG....would love to have him. But not at the cost of DMo. Expirings, a couple second rounders...and that's about it. If we took him off Brooklyn, they'd literally save around $50 million in salary and luxury taxes. No way do we send out DMo to them for one season of KG. No way.
You are obviously very high on Motiejunas. I am not. I believe Morey views him as expendable trade sweetener but I could be wrong. In my opinion, Morey is presently trying to figure out what he can get for Terry, Scotty Hopson, and the two second round picks acquired in this deal with the Kings, plus Motiejunas, if necessary as trade sweetener. And I think he winds up targeting either Millsap or Garnett, and MAYBE Ilyasova. I agree with you that he is not going to be interested in most of the guys I listed. Why are you valuing Motiejunas more than Jones? Jones is better, and he's younger. My guess is that Morey thinks that Jones is a far more valuable commodity/player than Motiejunas.
If Morey can trade Terry, Motiejunas, and these two second round picks for Millsap or Garnett (more realistically, Garnett), consider the fact that he is effectively trading the completely non-essential (and not very good) Motiejunas for either Millsap or Garnett. Huge win! After waiving either Ish Smith or Francisco Garcia in late October, here is your 2014-15 Rockets roster entering the season: Starting lineup PG Patrick Beverley (32 minutes/game) SG James Harden (36 min/g) SF Trevor Ariza (32 min/g) PF Paul Millsap (32 min/g) OR Kevin Garnett (24 min/g) C Dwight Howard (32 min/g) Key reserves Terrence Jones (28 min/g) Kostas Papanikolaou (20-28 min/g) Isaiah Canaan (16 min/g) Troy Daniels (12 min/g) End of the bench Jeff Adrien Robert Covington Joey Dorsey Francisco Garcia OR Ishmael Smith (one stays, one gets waived) Stashed in the developmental league Clint Capela Nick Johnson I'm sorry, but that is a very good team right there. And they can offer Millsap or Garnett with the Pelicans 1st rounder + Capela and/or Johnson and/or Canaan for a big name/big salary guy who is made available in January/February. Many Rockets fans on this website are not really understanding what Morey is trying to do here. Houston should be better in 2014-15 than they were in 2013-14. The roster is going to come together, be patient.
1.) make the Jason Terry trade a 3-way: Hou. get: Blesoe Pho. gets: Capela, D-Mo, New Orlean's 1st pick, Sacramento's 2nd pick, and expiring contracts (Terry and Hopson) Sac. gets: Gee and Powell 2.) Lin TPE for Brandon Bass 3.) sign Okafor for the remaining MLE Howard, Dorsey, Okafor (play ahead of Dorsey when he gets healthy later) Bass, Jones, Covington Ariza, Papa, Gracia Harden, Daniels, Johnson Blesoe, Beverley, Canaan next summer: 1.) Beverley plus all our picks (our own 1st & 2nd, NY's 2nd in 15' & 16') for a lottery pick (#8~#14) 2.) Blesoe+Johnson for Conley+Lee+pick consideration (if Memphis can't extend Conley) 3.) Papa+Dorsey for Jeff Green 4.) Harden+Jones for Durant (if OKC can't extend Durant, who can offer a better deal than Harden+Jones? with the star player being a SG/SF/C since OKC has Westbrook and Ibaka) 5.) MLE/BAE/Vet.Min. for some Vet. to fill out the roster Howard, Okafor, Vet.Min. player Bass, Lottery pick, Covington Durant, Green, Gracia Ariza, Lee, Daniels Conley, MLE player, Canaan
Dmo does not suck....don't trade him. Millsap? you got to be kidding me....., ersan on the other hand, do want!.
Can't extend him. Can agree to a new contract with him but only after his current contract expires and he becomes a free agent. And he is a fringe all-star who plays good D that I'd like to have on this team. But not at the cost of DMo.
DMo may have sucked in the past (and he may in the future..who knows) but his trade value right now is good. He's shown up this summer and shown game and he's a big 7-footer. He's got more trade value than Millsap on an expiring deal.
Update: I screwed up; Garnett makes too much money for this to work. Indiana likely overvalues West so that deal appears unlikely. Houston will not be interested in Mayo. Milwaukee likely refuses to sell Sanders for ten cents on the dollar. Ilyasova has struggled to stay healthy lately and is owed guaranteed dollars in 2015-16, so I think Houston balks at that. This leaves Millsap and Prince. Millsap is a great get but Atlanta may think it can eventually get more. Prince is a logical target, though. Memphis has luxury tax issues and a swap of Prince for Terry gives Memphis some breathing room. Here are my two projected trades: 1) Donatas Motiejunas to somebody for one or two second round picks plus filler (if necessary); 2) Jason Terry to Memphis for Tayshaun Prince and one second round pick (making the deal with Sacramento a three-way deal). I then expect Houston to enter the season with Prince on the roster (but possibly NOT in the rotation), for Robert Covington to make the team (and possibly the rotation), and for either Ishmael Smith or Francisco Garcia to get cut (probably Garcia IMO). We should expect Houston to later (in January or February) package Prince with multiple draft picks (including the Pelicans first round pick) plus Clint Capela or Nick Johnson for a big name/big salary guy, maybe (probably?) somebody whose name is presently not on the radar.
I am high on DMo right now. But I'm not real high on him. And I could change on him if he comes to training camp and doesn't do a good job of carving out a starting spot. I do feel like he is the much better and will have a much better career than Terrence. But I'm much higher on a guy like Cody Zeller than DMo. And I would be very intrigued to be able to flip DMo for a guy like Enes Kanter. And I like Millsap a whole lot too. But to me, DMo for Millsap doesn't work. Millsap could walk away next summer leaving us with nothing. And we need to see what DMo becomes or trade him for another up and coming big 4. Terrence and a future pick for Millsap would be fine. But not DMo and not the Pelies pick for Millsap. I think Garnett, Millsap, or Ilyasova would be good to great fits here. But Garnett is at the end of line. He's got 1 season left and he'll have to be played very limited minutes to be effective come playoff time. And then it's over. DMo COULD turn out to be a 10 year starting PF in this league. I'm not trading DMo for KG. Ilyasova....he's dead weight in Milwaukee. They don't need him and don't want him and if they could dump his salary for anything of value they will do it. They're probably going to trade him. It's a matter of when and they're trying to squeeze as much value as possible. But Ilyasova is coming off a terrible season. His trade value is very, very low. No way should we give up DMo or the Pels pick or even a first rounder for him. The non-guaranteeds, Terry, and the second rounders from the Terry deal are more than enough if we want Ilyasova. And if some other team wants to outbid us by throwing a first rounder at Milwaukee they can have him. That would be stupid. However I do like Ilyasova a whole lot and I feel he would shine here. I'd love to have him. But only at a very low cost...like non-guaranteed deals....you know basically for free. So if Morey turns Gee and Powell into Terry and 2 picks and then turns Terry and Hopson and the 2 picks into Ilyasova that means we got Ilyasove for 3 non-guaranteed contracts. I think that would be a great deal for us. But no first rounders and no other substantial players. Millsap....of the 3 guys you mentioned here, Millsap is the player that holds the most trade value. But he's an expiring contract. I would be willing to give up more for Millsap. Perhaps Terrence and a future first. But once again..not DMo and not the Pels pick. Not right now. However if later in the season we can see the Pels pick is going to wind up in the late teens and DMo is looking average...then possibly then. But not now. 3 factors cause me to value DMo over Terrence at present (remember evaluations change as players progress and digress over time): 1. Size - DMo is a legit 7 foot and around 265 lbs or so. He's a legit big man that can play the 4 and the 5. Terrence is a tweener. He measures 6'9" but about 2 inches of that is extra neck. Terrence does not have the size to go up against the real big boys. 2. Skills - DMo is a guy that you can throw the ball to and he can go get it. Terrence is a guy you throw the ball to and he finishes. He does a good job of finishing but finishers are a dime a dozen in the NBA. He doesn't have a unique skill set in that area. By contrast, guys with DMo's post-up skills are a rare breed. Combine this skill with his shooting. DMo has way better form and will be the better shooter throughout his career if Terrence doesn't break down his jumper and rebuild it. Defensively...and I can't believe I'm actually saying this....but DMo has better defensive skills. He's not a good defender at this point. But he's got more defensive potential, mostly stemming from the fact that his brain kicks in and works at a faster rate than Terrence's does and he has more size to thwart an offensive player's strength. 3. Work ethic - DMo is a worker. He's proven it. Guy is playing all summer for his national team. He's in the gym all the time. He is a worker. Terrence......nobody has any idea what Terrence is doing. I don't think Terrence has the work ethic that DMo has. And therefore I do think Terrence career development is going to level off and DMo's career development is going to continue to progress, whether that is in Houston or in another city.
I would like to see some of this unless Morey has a better plan, which he probably does. But if by some possibility he doesn't, then I would go a step further with the assumption that Bledsoe is ultimately gonna accept a new offer from Phoenix, and then Phoenix will then look to hopefully trade Dragic. In that case, I would hope that we could get Dragic (since he has the player option) for Papa, Capella and a couple of picks, the NO Pick if necessary, thus giving us: Dragic/Beverly/Canaan Harden/Daniels/Johnson Ariza/Garcia/Covington Milsap/Jones/Adrien Howard/Dorsey While I understand some posters opinion that DMo has more upside and potential than TJones, I will still prefer TJones at this point because he has proven that he is better than DMo so far. He has also improved greatly each offseason, so I believe that speaks well for his work ethic and he could be in for a breakout year. If he is your backup PF, that is a GREAT position to be in as a contending team. I like that team to compete this year for a chip, plus we would still have the TPE from the Lin deal possibly to add another backup Center.
That's your opinion and you're welcome to it. My opinion is a lot of posters here severely overvalue Terrence because he was able to slam home the ball when the defense overplayed Dwight and Harden.
