1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[Fangraphs] Keuchel

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, Apr 14, 2015.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    23,839
    Likes Received:
    13,895
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dallas-keuchel-and-weak-contact/

    ....
    So, now that we’ve examined all of the data, we see that not only does Keuchel generate far more grounders than anyone else, he is the extreme upper tier when it comes to limiting ground ball authority. For most pitchers, grounder authority fluctuates a bit from year to year, but at the poles, the outliers tend to remain the same. Keuchel has outlier ground ball generating ability, compounded by outlier grounder authority limiting ability.

    The two-seam sinking fastball is the key to Keuchel’s repertoire, but obviously he can’t just rear back and throw it constantly. He has willed his four-seamer into a viable 89-90 MPH well-placed offering that must be respected, and has expertly fine tuned his slider and changeup into very useful secondary offerings. They all set up the two-seamer, thrown just as hard as the four-seamer, with late sink that usually proves impossible to lift in the air with any frequency or authority.

    Can Keuchel get any better? Probably not, but he is every bit as good as his gaudy 2014 ERA, and there is no reason to believe he will materially backslide anytime soon. He hasn’t even reached his first arbitration payday yet, so he clearly qualifies as one of the single best pitching bargains in the game at present. He might not look or quack like an ace, but Dallas Keuchel most certainly deserves to be classified as one at present.
     
  2. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 1999
    Messages:
    48,946
    Likes Received:
    1,365
  3. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,916
    Likes Received:
    14,156
    Stupid Diaz cost him from getting a complete game last time out.

    Hopefully the offense keeps it up for him so he can get those overrated "wins" that voters still stupidly look at with Cy Young voting.

    I agree that barring injury, he shouldn't just allofasudden regress in his performance.
     
  4. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    14,976
    Likes Received:
    2,564
    I heard one of the Astros announcer compare him to Greg Maddux. Maddux never had overpowering stuff either, but mixed his pitches up well and had pinpoint accuracy. I don't know if Keuchel has that level of accuracy but he mixes his pitches well and disguises them.
     
  5. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,916
    Likes Received:
    14,156
    And he's a lefty... Which makes a big difference.
     
  6. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2001
    Messages:
    29,254
    Likes Received:
    5,362
    I think Glavine would be a better comparison, though neither were the groundball force Keuchel has become.

    The plate was closer to 30" wide when Glavine/Maddux pitched. :p
     
  7. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2013
    Messages:
    19,409
    Likes Received:
    21,916
    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8985605&postcount=110

    Ashby needs to get his own material. :grin: Keuchel has the accuracy well enough, he doesnt have that crazy 2 seam movement that Maddux had.
     
  8. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 1999
    Messages:
    36,288
    Likes Received:
    26,638
    Intriguing....
     
  9. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    14,976
    Likes Received:
    2,564
    Nothing would irritate me more than the games when the ump was giving Glavine that far outside edge of the plate. That freaking guy lived out there and if he got an ump that would call that a strike he was almost unbeatable.
     
  10. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    84,998
    Likes Received:
    83,161
    Nothing new that the abacus and slide-rule crew couldn't have told us.

    Pettitte should be his spirit animal. Once he gets the cutter working hard-in on righties he'll be crazily deadly.
     
  11. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    84,998
    Likes Received:
    83,161
    Eric Gregg
     
  12. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2012
    Messages:
    10,278
    Likes Received:
    5,452
    I like Keuchel, seems like a great dude

    But he needs to get it together, his dang ERA is almost a full 1:grin:
     
  13. bigtexxx

    bigtexxx Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2002
    Messages:
    26,917
    Likes Received:
    2,259
    yes but does he have ACE POTENTIAL?

    *snicker*
     
  14. awc713

    awc713 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2012
    Messages:
    6,394
    Likes Received:
    5,991
    i thought kuechel was "an average pitcher"
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    23,839
    Likes Received:
    13,895
    Just wish he and McHugh were both pitching in next series.
     
  16. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 1999
    Messages:
    36,288
    Likes Received:
    26,638
    At least Felix Hernandez isn't.
     
  17. HstnSprtsFan101

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    522
  18. Houstunna

    Houstunna The Most Unbiased Fan
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2013
    Messages:
    32,660
    Likes Received:
    23,334
    My only worry about Keuchel is postseason. Contact pitchers dont typically dominate in the playoffs... Maddux included. Pitchers who make batters swing and miss fare better. There are less things that can go wrong if a ball isn't put in play. Maddux and Glavine were subpar in the playoffs unlike Smoltz who made batters K.

    Keuchel is ballin no doubt though.

    Houston is on the rise!!
     
  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2001
    Messages:
    29,254
    Likes Received:
    5,362
    Maddux had a lifetime postseason ERA of 3.27, and a 2.09 in the WS. He was incredibly successful in the postseason.

    Glavine had a lifetime postseason ERA of 3.30 and a 2.16 in the WS.

    I'd gladly take either.
     
  20. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2000
    Messages:
    14,976
    Likes Received:
    2,564
    At this point I'd gladly take the opportunity for Keuchel to prove that he isn't as effective in the postseason as regular season. Cause then we'd be in the postseason.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now