Top 5 1. Warriors 2. Thunder 3. Rockets (Lawson could be a distraction) 4. Clippers 5. SAS (Pop is gonna stash the old timers more and more frequently until late season) Seriously, it's not even funny anymore.
The Spurs move for Aldrige is more of a long term move. He'll replace Duncan more than he'll compliment him. They're still good, but I don't see how they'll be able to stop our two-headed monster in the backcourt. I still don't want to draw them in the playoffs, but I'd say we're about even. Warriors are still the favorite and rightfully so. I think they're still better than us, but now the gap is a lot smaller. Iguoldala can't guard both Lawson and Harden, and neither Thompson nor Curry are capable of that task. Our games with GSW will be offensive bloodbaths IMO. I think we'll better than the Clippers, but again the margin is small. OKC shouldn't be too much of a problem, honestly. Their offense is predictable and they don't have the defensive perimeter guys to throw on Lawson and Harden, whereas we have Ariza, Bev, and Brewer who we can throw at Westbrook and Durant. We might also be able to take advantage of them in the post, Dmo and Howard would have a field day against Kanter. IMO OKC is in tier 2. They need a major move to be a true contender. In the East they'd be right up there with the Cavs (OKC and CLE are basically clones), but the Western teams are just too deep.
I'm seeing a 60 win roster. This could be the best squad the Rockets have put on the floor top to bottom. Get ya mind right Ty!
Thunder's new head coach Billy Donovan is completely unproven. Durant just started testing his surgically re-repaired foot, and Westbrook's hyper-agressive style has earned him a deserved "injury prone" tag. And they just overpaid for a stiff in Kanter. I just don't see them in the top 5 teams in the West. 1Dubs 2Rox 3Clips 4Grizz 5Spurs
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trevor Ariza on new-look <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rockets?src=hash">#Rockets</a>: "With a healthy team, I think we're really dangerous...but it all depends on how we gel."</p>— Daniel Gotera (@DTGoteraKHOU) <a href="https://twitter.com/DTGoteraKHOU/status/623618163201196032">July 21, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
he's just being modest for the media. deep down u know he really thinks 'our ceiling is through the roof'
he's just being modest for the media. deep down u know he really thinks 'our ceiling is through the roof'
Another year of the team building chemistry and learning to play with each other is almost as much of an improvement as adding a big name FA. Ask the Spurs. For years they never added elite FA's and continued to build on what they had.
It depends how much our power forwards improved...Josh gave you an interior shot blocking threat....got Griffin a couple of key times.
Depends on the Spurs geriatrics holding up, Durant bouncing back, and GS having another injury free season. Hopefully the bug misses us as we got nailed with Howard, Jones, DMo, and Bev all missing a ton of time last year. GS HOU OKC SAS LAC MEM Health + Lawson = Championship
I think until they fall off of their horse the GS Warriors have to be number 1. After that I'll go with the Rockets because I think they are substantially better than the team that played in the WCF a couple of months ago. GSW HOU LAC SAS MEM OKC NOP I think those 7 are pretty much etched in stone providing injuries don't kill one of the teams. I think the 8th seed is pretty much up for grabs but I'll give it to Phoenix for now. I think SAC would be right behind them and might even pass them.
That's a good point. OKC might have to play catchup and hope some role player breaks out early season. There's a part of me that wants to see OKC and GS duke it out full strength... but regular season is all I need for either full strength team. They're pretty much a wildcard whereas Grizz have been consistently good but not great in the playoffs...even if they've been more successful in the past 5 years than the Rockets lately.
We'll see if you're right though. Probably will be, but they have to show something first. I'm hoping Westbrook & Durant will be healthy (especially KD). But I'm hoping Billy Donovan will be turrible. I don't want him to be next season's Kerr.
Team to Beat Golden State Warriors -- 67 wins -- NBA Champions Why they Repeat: Those 67 wins are tied for the 3rd most in one season since 1980 (when the 3pt line came into play). The 10.10 margin of victory they had was the 5th best since '80. This was one of the most dominant single seasons in recent NBA history. The Warriors evolved from "contender" to "historic" as their young guys like Klay and Dray improved and Kerr's smarter offensive system helped maximize Curry's special offensive ceiling. They didn't make any big move this summer but they didn't have to, they were so utterly dominant that they just need to remain at their '15 levels to remain a monster threat to repeat. Klay Thompson in particular scares me because I don't think he's done developing as an offensive force. The Splash Bros. could be even nastier next year as Klay gets better. Why they don't Repeat: They were an absolutely dominant NBA champion whether us Rockets fans want to admit it or not. But they did get lucky. I don't want to overstate the "luck" aspect because they did win 67 games and win a title convincingly, but teams need luck to win titles and it's no lock they get those kinds of breaks next year. Injuries weren't an issue with them but that could change next year. Steph Curry and Andrew Bogut are two of their most important players and do have injury concerns. I hate to even mention it, but Curry's ankles could become an issue that just destroys the Warriors' chances. It's the main reason why Curry has the best contract in the league right now. And Bogut isn't as important as Curry but he's a defensive force and I don't think they can win a title with him out for the entire playoffs. Contenders tier 1 Houston Rockets -- 56 wins -- WCF loss Why they win a title: 2nd seed in the regular season. Runner-up in the WC playoffs. All year long it felt like the Rockets were underrated by the media and rest of the NBA fans. But with Dwight missing half the regular season and the team dealing with major injury issues beyond Dwight, this team battled it's way and proved they were to be taken seriously. Harden just put on a show last season and earned that MVP runner-up by playing at a level above anything we've seen from him before. Harden was a very good All-Star in '13 and '14, he was a HOF-level Superstar in '15. If Harden can continue to improve (especially in that mid-range game where he dominated the Warriors at times), Dwight can stay healthy, Lawson can get his mind right and mesh well, and the team has good injury luck.. sky it the limit. The depth on this team is just incredible. DMo's back being an issue sucks, because I think his post-scoring could really be the x-factor we need to be a Championship offense. Why they don't win: Ty Lawson might not be the ideal fit we're hoping for. I want him to succeed as much as the rest of you, but this is a guy with a chronic DUI problem. Anyone with a "chronic DUI problem" is a piece of **** who doesn't understand what the word "consequences" means. I've been a fan of Ty since he was at UNC, he was a dominant college PG and he is an impact offensive player in the NBA. But I'll wait and see on Ty, hopefully he gets it together as a person and is a valuable player for us. The biggest threat to the Rockets' title hopes is Dwight's health. The guy still has a superstar impact when he's healthy, which he showed in the playoffs, but his injury issues are quite big. The Rockets need to hope that he can give them more healthy games in the regular season next year and also remain healthy in the playoffs. Los Angeles Clippers -- 56 wins -- 2nd Round exit Why they win the title: 1st in ORtg in '15. 1st in ORtg in '14. They have the best offense in basketball. Chris Paul is the best pure floor general in the game (Curry is a different species of PG than "floor general") and Blake is just an absolute animal on the offensive end with his combination of ball-handling skills and finishing skills to go along with an improved jumper. DeAndre may be one dimensional but he's a dominant PnR finisher and clean-up guy around the rim. With Paul's brilliance, Blake's interior scoring versatility, Jordan's ability to suck in the D when he attacks the rim, and JJ's great shooting... that offense is just unstoppable when their starters are in. And while Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, and Lance Stephenson aren't murderer's row; they're definitely an upgrade on the bench from what they had last year. The Clippers' achilles heel was their depth and they improved there from last year for certain. Why they won't win: They might be the best offense in basketball, but they certainly aren't the best defense. CP3 is a great defensive player and Jordan is a strong rim protector, but it really hasn't translated in great defensive performance so far. They ranked just 15th in terms of DRtg this past season. Out of all the elite teams out West + the Cavaliers, the Clippers absolutely have the worst "#1 wing defender" out of the entire bunch. The answer is probably Chris Paul but you can't overuse him as a defensive ace or else he won't last, so their best option besides him is Wesley Johnson or Paul Pierce? That's a joke. Matt Barnes was already a weak #1 wing defender, but he was still better than what they have now. And while the bench looks better on paper, it's still weak among these other elite teams. San Antonio Spurs -- 55 wins -- "1st round" exit Why they win the title: They are probably the best run franchise in American pro sports. It's just incredible how consistent they've been in the Duncan/Pop era. They failed on their quest to repeat once again, but they were still a major threat to win it all this past season. They fell to the Clippers in an epic 7 game series in the 1st round, but then they went out and added Lamarcus Aldridge who was the best player on a 51 win WC team in Portland. He is an offensive workhorse who could be as effective as ever on that end in San Antonio next to Duncan in that beautiful offense. And as good as Aldridge is, I think Kawhi Leonard is actually the best player on that team from a two-way perspective. He came on so strong at the end of last season, playing like one of the best players in this league. I don't think it's out of the question for both Aldridge and Leonard to be top 15 players in the league next year, the Spurs haven't had that kind of top-end talent in a while. Surrounding those 2 with OGs like Duncan/Pop/Manu/Tony makes them scary. Why they don't win: They are old and they have questionable backcourt play. While Duncan is still a great player and should still make a big impact next year next to Aldridge, I don't feel as comfortable about Manu and Tony next year. Parker (4.9 APG) and Manu (4.2 APG) were the top two playmakers on that team last year, and both looked older and not what they once were. Especially Tony Parker, I don't think his decline is getting enough attention in the whole Spurs-lovefest that's been going on since they added Aldridge. They're depending on old guys in decline to do the heavylifting in terms of perimeter playmaking. Steph Curry, James Harden, Chris Paul, Westbrook, Durant, Tony Parker... which one of those #1 perimeter shot-creators is not like the others? Oklahoma City Thunder -- 45 wins -- #9 seed Why they win the title: Kevin Durant stays healthy. Steph Curry, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Anthony Davis crashed the party last year when it came to rising megastars. All 4 of those guys were unbelievable last year. But '14 Durant was a better player than any of those 4 guys were this past year imo. Curry might have the ring and Anthony Davis might have the stats, but a healthy Durant is a better player than both of them for 2016 imo (Anthony Davis is eventually going to leave Durant in his dust). I love Harden but it's not a hard decision for me when it comes to '14 Durant or '15 Harden, KD was just better. Now combine him with Westbrook who is a freak of nature in his own right and you have the best 1-2 punch in the game. I also think that Kanter's low-post scoring is going to give them a dimension on offense that they've never had before with KD/Russ. I'm not a huge Kanter fan because of the problems on D he has, but I think he's going to be a valuable player on that team offensively and I think Ibaka is the perfect PF-fit next to him because of his rim protecting and shooting. The problem with them for years has been how ugly they are on offense despite the top-end talent, I think they're going to be prettier to watch and more effective than ever this year with Kanter's low-post scoring and Donovan hopefully being a more creative offensive coach than Brooks. Why they don't win: Kevin Durant doesn't stay healthy. Biggest wild card in the entire league. Foot problems (especially on guys as tall as Durant) are always scary as Joel Embiid is showing us. If KD gets hurt, the Thunder stand no chance out West even with Russ going bonkers. They need both of those 2 guys to be healthy and playing their best in the playoffs. And as much as I like Kanter's offense, his defense could prove to be costly. Donovan is going to have to balance Kanter/Adams really well next year, but they might not have enough O when Adams is in and not enough D when Kanter is in. It's going to be an interesting balance. The Thunder SG rotation is also by far the worst positional rotation that any of the WC contenders have. They need to think about making a move there. Contenders tier 1a aka Memphis Memphis Grizzlies -- 55 wins -- 2nd round exit I respect the hell out of these guys, they are just so damn tough. A healthy Tony Allen and Mike Conley and they might have knocked off the Warriors. This is the toughest team in the Western Conference and I respect them for that. But their offensive limitations just hurt their ceiling as a team too much imo. I can easily see the Grizzlies beating any of the Top 5 teams when it comes to a single playoff series, but I can't see the Grizzzlies winning multiple series against 2 or more of those Top 5 teams. I think all the teams above them can win multiple series against each other. At some point their offense is going to go cold and kill them. Anthony Davis is a generational talent so they technically have a chance tier New Orleans Pelicans -- 45 wins -- 1st round exit Best PER for a 19 year old in NBA history? Anthony Davis (21.7). Best PER for a 20 year old in NBA history? Anthony Davis (26.5). Best PER for a 21 year old in NBA history? Anthony Davis (30.8). The only players in NBA history who've posted a higher PER than 21 year old Anthony Davis are Peak Jordan, Peak Wilt, and Peak LeBron. If Baby Davis is making this kind of noise, imagine what Peak Davis is going to be doing to this league. Now I don't think PER is a perfect stat by any means, it doesn't paint the entire picture. I even mentioned earlier that I believe that '14 Durant > '15 Davis despite the PER edge to AD. But what Anthony Davis has done so far in his career has been amazing. He's got the chance to be a Duncan/Garnett level dominator at the PF position for a long time. The Pelicans just aren't good enough to be a title contender but Anthony Davis might be the best player in the league next year which is going to make them a dangerous out in round 1 for anyone. TLDR... I'd rank us #2 in the WC right now... but #1-#6 out West is going to be very close with all of those teams being so loaded.
Funny to go back and look at this now. Some of the delusional no knowledge fools stand out. At least, I was reasonable and close. I still think we can end up with 5th seed :grin:
