Larry Coon projecting next year's salary cap to increase by $5 million

I went through the numbers and the added cap space only allows us to get closer to Melo's max, not add another vet.

Melo's current salary is: $21,388,954, meaning his next contract max is either going to be:

New York's 7.5% raise = $22,993,125
Houston's 5% max raise = $22,458,401

Assuming Houston makes the following moves:
- Convinces Garcia to opt out of his player option, and to resign a similar one year deal using the vet minimum after using max cap space.
-Waive Beverley and Cannan's non guaranteed deals and resign to similar deals using minimum exceptions after using max cap space.
-Trade Lin to Philly for cap space offering Dmo and our 2014 #1 pick as incentive.
-Trade Asik to Boston for Bogan's fully non guaranteed + a future pick. Waive Bogans

The Rockets would have $20,092,767 to offer, which is 2 million below his max. You could free up another 1.2m by giving away Jones, but at that point I am not sure you end up having a better team.

 

This may be a stupid question, but who/what decides how much the cap increases each year?

 

Without doing the math myself just now or double checking the presmises, these steps all seem somewhat reasonable to me except for waiving Beverley and asking him to re-sign at another vet min. First, I feel as if the cba has rules that disallow such things, but maybe for vet min players, there is an exception (again, I haven't double checked atm). Second, I don't see Bev agreeing. He's competitive and thinks he deserves more -- chip on his shoulder. If you give him that option, he wants more, period. Players are all quite greedy and selfish at the end of the day, and I think that's right since teams have little loyalty to virtually all their players anyways...

 

Ummm if u waive Beverley can't another team pick him up off waivers? Bev on his contract would be a steal for any team in the league.

Basically to get Melos true max money you are looking to gut the team. I think the logical goal should be to prep a nice S&T offer for New York with Lin and Asik involved with the leverage of sending Lin and Asik to Philly with multiple picks for the cap space to give Melo a 18 mil a year deal.

Let Melo make the decision on what he is willing to take, and if the money means that much Morey should be willing to walk away from Melo. If he says he is willing to leave for less I think NY ultimately caves and takes Lin, Asik, and the picks you'd be giving Philly, and you end up being able to give Melo the max anyways.

However either way u look at it. If you can move Lin and Asik, I think Morey can do a lot with 18 mil in cap space. Whether that be Melo or absorbing a big contract in trade the Rockets can really improve with this potential cap space increase.

 

FYI, as basketballholic and others have already stated, this latest projection has the cap increasing $5 million over this year's cap, but it is ONLY projecting an increase of about $300k or so over the most recent prior projections, off of which most teams have been planning since the All-Star break. It's only about $700k or so (cumulatively) over the projections in place prior to this season.

In other words, none of this is earth-shattering to any NBA team's plans. Just a small change in the right direction for any team looking for cap room.

 

Edit: On Beverley and Canaan. If Beverley is opted out, no way he doesn't go elsewhere for a much bigger deal, Carlos Boozer style. It's not happening.

If Melo wants to win, I don't think Jones' salary is going to make an impact. If he doesn't, well, he should be staying in NY where he's in the bright spotlight and is definitively the franchise player. If he wants the Rockets to entirely gut their team to fit him, then you wonder if he's worth it in the first place. The Rockets may be better off in 2015 when the cap rises another tick and the 2015 FAs' max money will be lower than Melo's theoretical max.

 

Actually I was talking about 2015 FA, not this upcoming one. Although the content here has been discussed in the big Melo thread.

 

The Beverley and Canaan moves are not game changers.

That only frees up 800k anyways.

 

As others have pointed out, no way Rockets waive Beverley. Another team would snap him up in a second!

Also, FWIW, Isaiah Canaan's deal is fully guaranteed for next season AND 80% guaranteed for 2015-16, meaning that waiving him (and assuming that he wasn't claimed) would actually COST the Rockets' some cap room in both years.

 

Cannon may need to lose a little muscle mass to come correct.

 

I think Canaan has enough value that we could trade him to Philly or Utah for nothing to move out his salary if we had to. But I really don't want us to do that. I think he's going to be a bargain next season.

Based on $63.2 million cap,

if we could move out Asik/Lin/Jones/DMo/2014 first round pick, release Casspi, convince Garcia to opt out and retain Howard/Harden/Parsons/Bev/Canaan we will have $20,787,058 in cap space. If we traded away Canaan for nothing in this scenario it only gives us an extra $309,000 of cap space and if we keep Daniels it only takes away an additional $309,000 of cap space.

I really believe $20 million is enough to get Melo or Bosh or Lebron or some other max free agent (possibly Dirk) to walk here.

 

Question for cap wizards:

Let's assume for a moment that the Rockets are $18M under the cap. Will they be allowed to do a sign-n-trade through the Knicks, with Carmelo signing a max contract at a starting salary of $22.5M?

I know that trades typically allow the exchange of salaries within 125%. But I'm not entirely sure if this applies to TPE's as well.

 

Rox would have to send out $4.5 million in that scenario.

 

I doubt Melo at this point in his career would force a team to dump all its minimum roleplayers for a little bit of money. Sure he's not going to take a 5-6m paycut, but 1 or 2 @30 years of age?

 

We don't need Carmelo. We just need better bench players and a better point guard.

 

Let me restate something here and be more vocal about it.


I believe a player like Melo will settle for around $20 million starting salary.

Reasons?

1. Since the new CBA, max salaries for new guys getting the max have gone down significantly. Witness James Harden playing on a max deal earning less than $15 million per season. $20 million starting salary puts Melo in the top 7 or 8 with only guys like Kobe, Joe Johnson, Lebron, Bosh, Wade, CP3, and Dwight exceeding the $20 million plateau.

2. Lebron, Bosh, and Wade cannot be completed again today by being under the cap without all 3 guys giving up some dough to make it happen and they all 3 have to be free agents at the same time. And as you seen with the Heat, it took them another year to get their full MLE to add RayRay and get a championship. They just couldn't get enough depth to win that first year after forming the big 3.

Melo knows this. However if he is willing to settle for around $20 million then a team like the Rockets could trade their way into cap space to sign him outright. With this threat (being willing to sign for $20 million starting salary), Melo will more likely generate a trade or sign-and-trade once the Knicks figure out they will lose him for nothing.

(In this instance I think Asik/Lin may be the best offer the Knicks get. I sure wouldn't offer them more. One of those take it or leave it scenarios. Especially if Melo wants Houston. Both guys are expiring salaries with Bird's rights and their $15 million salaries can be absorbed by the Knicks easily as well as actually save the Knicks some serious luxury tax dollars.)

3. Melo knows to win a championship he's going to have to combine with at least 2 other superstars. So if he stays in NY, and signs an extension in 2015, and if the cap goes to $66 million like what is currently being projected, that leaves basically $18 million a piece for 2 guys to walk to the Knicks. Most likely Lebron and Bosh won't be available. That leaves Rondo and Love or Aldridge walking to the Knicks to play with Melo. So you've basically got 2 power forwards and a point guard, no shooting guard (have to trade Hardaway/picks/Shumpert just to have the cap space to add the two other guys.) And then they're capped out with minimum salary guys around the newly formed big 3. Welcome to the 2011 version of the Miami Heat...only not as good.

In the meantime, the Rockets get either Love or Aldridge to go along with Howard/Harden/Parsons/Bev. And they're over the cap with free agents begging to sign with them. Not to mention whatever Lebron and company do.



There's simply too many "ifs" for Melo to win a championship by staying with the Knicks. Melo knows that too. What if they can't get Rondo and Love or Aldridge there in 2015? Then it's basically over for Melo winning a championship.

These are just some of the reasons I believe Melo will sign for less than his personal max. And I think $20 million starting salary just may get it done.

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Now.............with all that said....here's what I believe is happening. (Here comes a juicy conspiracy for you.)

I believe Harden and Howard are recruiting Love. How? Well, we know Harden and Love are buds. And we've seen where Dwight has been talking to Melo and closet recruiting Melo. I believe there is a strategy here.

1. We will take Melo if he comes along.

2. We really want Love.

3. If we get Melo interested in coming here then Harden can put on the all out blitz on Love, letting Love know it's now or never if he wants to play with him and Howard. Love decides to go ahead and tell Minny he isn't going to re-sign with them. Game on.

Love and Melo are both talking like they want to win championships very badly. There's only one team with 2 established relatively healthy superstars that they can join that already has great role players (Parsons/Bev) to fill ou the starting lineup.

If Love wants out of Minny and tells them he is leaving after next season, if he wants Houston, I think we'll wait for him. And hopefully we can get a trade done by the trade deadline next year. Because a trade for Love using Asik's/Lin's and other salaries could wind up being for more than just love. That's enough salary for us to get another player or two along with Love and round out the rotation with quality vets and still have our full MLE.

This is what I hope comes out of the Melo talk and free agency.

 

SIDENOTE: I told one of my friends about Howard coming to the Rockets 2 years ago and he was laughing at me. We know how that worked out... lol

Furthermore.... I told him about Melo last year before the season started and I will stick to my word....

Carmelo Anthony will be a Houston Rocket for the 2014/2015 season. *In my SAS voice* Screw that dude.

 

I wonder if Melo learned his lesson? Teams cant give too much flexibility up for him and expect to win a championship. If he comes with a discount then cool that's a good sign, if not then I dont really care for him.