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[Point Guard Analysis] Rafer vs. Lowry

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by JayRow, Mar 9, 2009.

  1. JayRow

    JayRow Member

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    To those who were thinking, What the hell were the Rockets doing trading Rafer for a kid named Kyle Lowry, here is some statistical and analytical analysis.

    Rafer:
    FG: 38.2% on 10.4 FGA per game.
    3PT: 23.3% on 3.3 3PTA per game.
    AST:TO ratio: 6.2:2.4
    MPG: 29.9 Minutes Per Game

    Lowry:
    FG: 53.9% on 5.2 FGA per game.
    3PT: 33% on .9 3PTA per game
    AST:TO ratio: 3.6:1.2 (notice: same ratio as Rafer's)
    MPG: 20 Minutes Per Game

    Across the board, Lowry is more effective, plays his role, and helps this team more than Rafer.

    Just reminding you guys, these games we are winning by a couple points are a byproduct of Lowry's efficiency and not having to deal with Rafer's 10.4 FGA per Game.

    Hm, seems like Yao is given more of a chance to contribute with Rafer off the team, being able to take 14.1 FGA per game, as opposed to his 12.8 FGA per game prior to Rafer being shipped off.

    Overall, what is this? A basic number-crunch. It is my personal belief that our success can be attributed to many factors, such as Ron Artest's improved efficiency. However, replacing rafer's inefficient shot with a high percentage Lowry shot & additional Yao shot attempts helps our overall product.

    Sorry if this was sporadic, I am not great at putting the million thoughts I have about the Rockets on paper.
     
  2. mms

    mms Member

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    Good analysis but your math....
     
  3. OlajuwonShake34

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    We don't any proof that Lowry is better than Alston. It only be time before he reaches the Top 10 PG in the NBA list. :eek:
     
  4. Noob Cake

    Noob Cake Member

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    I really don't like the fact that Lowry can't shoot 3. Other than that he is an awesome PG.

    During the past few games, he has been left semi-open on the perimeter on multiple occasion.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Rafer was playing much better in the games preceding the trade. With the ball in his hands more and no T-Mac, does he put up better numbers for us?
     
  6. sephiroth.hk

    sephiroth.hk Member

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    no need to compare with rafer
    and i dont want lowry to be rafer.
    we will forget rafer very soon.
    rafet may get another first round out in playoff
    if magic face piston in first round.
     
  7. OlajuwonShake34

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    Yes, T-Mac is the guy who was holding Rafer back. However, I still prefer Lowry over Rafer simply because he takes WAY better shot selections. He is still shooting poorly in 3 land paradise Orlando
     
  8. ElPigto

    ElPigto Member
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    That's an overrated quality on this message board.

    If Lowry can still can get to the rim, can shoot less shots and still run the team effectively than he is a good PG. We have plenty of good shooters to compensate for his short comings at the three point line. The point of Rick's offense is to get more movement to the basket. This isn't just inside out, although there is a lot of it, but there is also motion. Therefore Lowry being a 3 point shooter is not as critical.
     
  9. thelasik

    thelasik Contributing Member

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    How many more Rafer/Lowry or Lowry/Brooks threads should we expect in the next two weeks?
     
  10. JayRow

    JayRow Member

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    Well, basically here was my point.

    My point was that statistically, Rafer was hurting our team in many ways that were replaced in a positive manner (statistically) by Lowry.

    Everyone's problem with Rafer? It was shooting too much and not shooting well enough.

    Lowry's Strength: Great high percentage shots.

    And through all this, we didn't lose much, statistically.

    ~~~
    Just something to think about as we enjoy this success.
     
  11. lalala902102001

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    Lowry can penetrate and finish at the rim...something Rafer has never done and will never do in his career. That's the difference right there.
     
  12. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    I've always thought that was overrated, mainly because I never found his shooting to improve. This is more or less confirmed if you look at his horrible shooting since the trade.

    I mean, getting traded to a new team may affect your turnovers, assists, defense, etc. But it doesn't affect a player's shooting nearly as much.
     
  13. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine

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    Rafer isn't a backup and doesn't play most of his minutes against backups first off. Rafer also had different starting lineups constantly due to injuries and TMac appearing and disappearing. Then the fact that Lowry has played about two weeks? Okay.
     
  14. kawins

    kawins Member

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    Lowry's Ast to TO ratio is higher than Rafer's according to your figure.
    3.6/1.2 > 6.2/2.4

     
  15. jedicro

    jedicro Member

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    Rafer is also one of the streakiest players in the league, if not the streakiest. How do you know those 2 or 3 games were not just him getting hot only to cool down a week later?

    Rafer is inconsistent. I don't want my playoff hopes riding on whether or not Rafer is feeling it.
     
  16. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    this has been discussed. i dont think anyone here is still thinking that rafer is better than lowry. if they do, they understand that lowry is 10 years younger.

    lowry is a better defender. better finisher. one of the best in the league at drawing fouls. rafer may spread the floor and run the offense like only a vet pg can... but lowry has the summer to improve his jumper and training camp to learn the offense. by next season he will be hands down the better player.
     
  17. huoxingaishi

    huoxingaishi New Member

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    i am a Houston`s fan from China,in my opinion,rafer can pass perfectly at times but also,he chose the incorrect time to have a shot,we call it`crazy knife`here,which means sometimes effective sometimes not.Lowry(right spelling?) is a player who consider passing as the first choice,i like him haaa~~~
    by the way,i want to say hello to all the guys here and just forgive my poor English.i want to communicate with you all,3q
     
  18. dookiester

    dookiester Member

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    probably not. he's a streaky guy and while he definitely has the ball in his hands more when t-mac is out, i'm not so sure that's a good thing. rafer's numbers on the magic, where there is no t-mac holding him back:

    38% from fg, 23.3% from 3, 61.6% ft.

    rafer's stats with the rockets for february, when tmac sat out most of the month:
    39.3% fg, 32.7% 3, 70.6% ft

    but stats don't tell the whole story. he's a good 'floor general' for whatever that's worth, but the bottom line is that inevitably, rafer will be the player that teams cheat off and dare to score. he does have games where he gets hot, and when he's hot we're almost unbeatable. but a team that has to rely on rafer to get hot to win games is not a team that is going to have any kind of sustained success. rafer, along with tmac and ron, loved to settle for the jumpshot, and kept on shooting even if he clearly didn't have it. it's okay to have one guy like that on your team, but 3? now that tmac is out, and rafer is gone, we are running much better and our offense is far more balanced. brooks and lowry are both players that don't settle for jumpers when it isn't falling, and both have done a good enough job running the offense that i'm willing to sacrifice rafer's steady hand in return for the significantly greater offensive threat that our current PG combo provides. and the best part of it all is that these guys are young and will continue to get better: no matter how hot rafer gets at times, its hard to imagine him turning it around and becoming much better than what he's shown himself to be capable of over the last few years (not saying it's impossible, see steve nash; but it's improbable).
     
  19. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    4 years of watching and the old saying still applies.

    RAFER SUCKS !

    DD
     
  20. dookiester

    dookiester Member

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    to hammer the point home, rafer had 2 great games with the rockets when tmac was out, and before he got traded:

    Feb 4: 54% from fg and 42.9% from 3; 15 points and 6 assists
    Feb 7: 80% from fg, 100% from 3; 22 points and 6 assists

    this is probably the 'great play' and 'hot streak' people are referring to when they say rafer was better without tmac. but immediately after this 2 game hot streak, rafer went back to being rafer.

    over the next 3 games with the rockets, and without tmac, he went 30%, 20%, 25% from FG (along with 60%, 16%, 25% from 3) on about 10 shots a game. im inclined to think his little 2 game hot streak was just that, a streak, moreso than a trend showing he's better without tmac. rafer's hot streaks are great, but his cold streaks suck, and unfortunately his career has for the most part consisted of cold streaks. i think it's time we admit that it's not just a cold streak, it's just his norm.
     

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