Cheaper? no question Santana/Tucker win out there. But similar production? Doubtful for at least the next 2 seasons. Singleton had a much better pedigree than either of those guys and over an extended period he's been worth negative WAR early in his career. With Santana's well documented ML strikeout problem and Tucker's propensity to start off slowly, there's little chance either prospect will out produce Fowler in the next 2 seasons. ??? You and I have different definitions of the term low ceiling. That's an above-average line for a CF. If he qualified, his current .778 OPS would be the fifth best CF OPS in baseball. Almost any team would be happy to count that among their top 3 OFers. More to the point, his floor for the next few seasons is a .700+ OPS hitter. The floor for Marisnick, Santana and Tucker over the next two seasons is a .500 OPS hitter (Marisnick this year prior to the trade). I like prospects as much as the next guy but it seems like some of y'all are willing to forgo actual production and consistency in favor of chasing unproven upside.
We only have Fowler for one more season... and at a significant raise at that ( he'll get more than $10 million in arbitration). He's a free agent in 2016. If they're going to trade him, it would have to be this off-season or by the 2015 trade deadline. Like I said, if they can get him to sign a 3 year extension at a fair (but not crippling rate), they need to try and do that... but if its going to hinder further improvement elsewhere on the roster, they'd still be better off reappropriating his expected salary elsewhere
I get that and I agree that signing him to a below market 3 year deal might be a good idea. He is a $10m player based on the going rate for $/WAR. Might be worth a little more actually.
I like fowler quite a bit, he is a good solid ball player I am also one of the strongest "don't trade guys who can help us win major league games" guys left around here right now But, Fowler has always had issues staying healthy. I think it is tough to genuinely look at him as a major piece of the future for that reason
Part of the problem is that he doesn't qualify - because he has troubles every year staying healthy. And my understanding is that he's not a great CF anyway - he's better suited for LF, where his .778 OPS would be less impressive. As is, his 1.4 WAR this season puts him 27th of qualifying CF's, if that's the measure you're using to decide how much to pay him. That said, my philosophy to building a team is that you focus on finding the potential stars and then fill in the holes around that. You can find Dexter Fowler types in free agency anytime you want - there's no reason to commit money to guys like that until you're ready to really compete for something. Until then, you're better off using that playing time to get other players some playing time to see if anyone with a higher ceiling develops. When you feel like you have the stars to build around, then you fill in the remaining gaps with Fowler-type guys.
It's a valid philosophy. I think we have our stars though. I'm pretty comfortable anchoring the team around Altuve and Springer now. I think we're past the point where we need to play unproductive rookies in the hopes one of them breaks out. Spend $25m to the current team adding Sandoval and Asdrubel Cabrera and I think you have a .500 or better team. That takes the team salary from 30th to 29th. A line up of: 2B Altuve, LF Springer, CF Fowler 3B Sandoval DH Carter C Castro 1B Singleton RF Marisnick SS: Cabrera along with the current rotation is a competitive team.
Fowler IMO has to move to left or right if we plan to keep him. I would even discuss an extension if that's what it took. This team will have very little salary commitments, over the next 4 years so we should start spending money. He is really a negative defensively in CF, it's the Derek Jeter effect. Despite being extremely valuable offensively, his WAR only ends up being OK because his defense drags it down. Even with without power, a .384 OBP plays anywhere. I could even tolerate his yearly injuries.
I know it's really really early, and things could change for all involved...but when judging the front office that had 3 first overall picks, it's not a good look when Bryant has a 1.069 OPS at AAA, and we passed him up for Appel. Then Rodon is already at AAA (and in the very early going of his career has 23 K's in 15 2/3 IP) while we wait until next June to see who we will take with the pick that was "ahead" of him And I know "the draft is a crapshoot" and all of that, but we had the dice first both years. Although our front office would never admit it, I would strongly believe that if we could make those picks over again, we would certainly take Bryant and would likely take Rodon, IF they could do it over
The Astros have the most runs in the majors since the all-star break. And that's without Springer and fowler (for most of that period). If you squint, it's not hard to see them having a good to very good offense next year. Altuve, Carter, Springer, Fowler, Castro are 2/3rds of a really good offense. Grossman has been great the last two months and Singleton should get better as he gains experience. And all of guys ( not to mention Correa, Moran, Marisnick, etc) are on the right side of 30. This team is a lot closer to contending than most people realize. To the extent they go outside the organization for talent, it should be for high-end talent to fill gaps and not for stop-gap depth. Using resources for a Hamels, Lester, Heyward (next year) type makes more sense to me than cluttering the lineup and blocking prospects with mediocre veterans.
Agreed. Would like to see less regression from Castro... and more consistency from Robbie and Carter... but I do like the phrase "if you squint!" I've definitely seen a lot more flashes of promise this year in the lineup... and besides Altuve's numbers possibly taking a minor decline (simply because I think he's just having one of those special seasons that will be hard to top), the rest of the guys should either stay consistent or improve (especially Singleton). I still think they'll try to move Fowler as part of a package if he doesn't sign an extension... I can't see them going into next season (his free agency "year") without something secured.
Yeah I don't really think it is honestly. They're a step away from even being a .500 team and they're several steps away from being a contending team. Going from .500 to contending is a bigger step than I think people realize.
FWIW, here is an article in which Porter explains his reasoning for Fowler being in center: http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastro...est-starter-for-astros/#22102103=0&26050101=0 His logic (as usual) baffles me. He appears to consider Fowler the overall better everyday player, thus, he is entitled to his position of choice. Now, had he said, Fowler has essentially played CF in every inning of every game he has played in his major league career and Porter doesn't want to put him in RF or LF at this stage of the season, that would make more sense.
I agree with this as well. Despite all the "progress", they still have the second worst run differential in the league (and 3rd worst in all of baseball).... but when you go from being a horrific MLB team to simply being a "bad" one, that's enough progress to create even the slightest bit of optimism.
It is pretty dumb logic, but I sort of understand where he's coming from. He basically says since Fowler is going to get a lot of playing time, he needs to play at a position he's comfortable at. I'm sure he's not implying that Fowler can play a quality CF, but he'd be incapable/uncomfortable at playing a corner OF spot... but that's essentially his reasoning. If I were the front office, I'd be giving Fowler one of those take it or leave it extension offers now.
I think recent history tells a different story. The 2008 rays went from worst in baseball to the World Series (and a perennial contender) in a season. The 2012 nationals went from last place to the playoffs in two years. So did the 2012 orioles. The Mariners haven't a been a 500 team in forever and suddenly they have the 3rd best run differential in baseball. Likewise for the 2012 A's.. Etc, etc., etc The Astros have a positive run differential in the 2nd half despite playing in the best division in baseball. Their lineup has scored the most runs in baseball since the break despite not having two of its best players. It's also the youngest team in baseball. It's not a terrible club. It's a flawed and incomplete club that is nonetheless starting to come into its own. In a year or two when the Astros are "good" and competing for the playoffs, the core of that team is going to looks awfully like the current club, only a little older and more mature.
Yes but a big chunk of that was due in large part to their nightmarishly awful April (88-142; 9-19 record). Since May, their run differential is much closer to a .500 team (48-51). That's a 78-win pace. And it's not a small sample size (99 games) nor is it necessarily random... Springer came up April 16 and started to really figure it out the second week of May. McHugh replaced Harrell April 22 and upgraded the rotation significantly. Altuve crossed the .300 threshold May 13 and hasn't looked back... The big question is what leaps this year are sustainable. If Altuve is for real; if Carter has legitimately turned into a .330/.500 player; if Springer can increase his OB% and continue to hit and slug as he did, pre-injury; if Kuechel and McHugh can be solid rotation pitchers... They still need Singleton to make a Carter-like progression; they need Castro to continue playing as he has for the past month-ish; they need Fowler to stay healthy... A lot of IFs - but I don't think the leap is that great.
I drink a lot of kool aid, but I would think that Carter is going to be somewhere between what he is now and what he was at the beginning of the year: .225/.295/.580 Singleton is the wild card here. I would love to see this guy develop, and I would imagine he has a very long leash. Castro... I am just over it. I feel like he is our version of Fowler in Colorado: a good player that was expected to be much more.
Over a long season, you're going to see a lot of ebbs and flows. Hell, they were looking "ok" last year (still bad), but needed a 15 game losing streak to end the season to still be classified as truly awful. But overall, they're better... and could get there pretty quick with the right off-season acquisitions.
