Thanks for this graph which shows that Greece was just on the road to recovery thanks to the fiscal measures which were put in, until the coalition of left-wing and right-wing extremists took over in Greece in early 2015. We did not have a situation like we have now, thanks to these crooks, where there is a bank run and people have to be afraid that the socialists will steal their savings. That only happened after half a year of nationalist/socialist dumbassery and game theory shenanigans and biting the hand that feeds them.
Nice work on selective use of statistics for purposes of lying. What your little graph doesn't tell us is that in Greece, the per capita income had almost tripled in the last few years before that. However, much of that increase was not based on innovation or improved productivity, but simply on taking out debt and living well beyond their means with that debt, and then expecting that this was going to be paid for by others forever. That happened before Syriza got into power. But then corrections simply had to be made (the fiscal measures interns like you describe as "austerity"). However, Syriza, with its extremist left- and right-wing government make it seem like the "austerity" is the actual cause of the downturn. That is not actually true. Syriza dialed back the necessary reforms and made things so much worse for their country. The black line is debt in % of GDP, the bars show per capita income. So, by selectively using certain timeframes and ignoring basic economic facts, interns like you can easily be deceived into believing and spreading dumb propaganda. The shrinking of real GDP in Greece is not a consequence of "austerity", but simply an inevitable consequence of Greece having lived beyond their means and the debt collapse. Greece funded its "growth" in per capita income (basically much of it just handouts in a totally bloated public system) with borrowed money, which however was not used to invest into and build a productive and competitive economy - the money was simply consumed. This can easily be seen if you look at some basic economic indicators. E.g., in 2010, Greece's trade deficit was at above 10 % of their economy's output (they even had to import food), which is a value much more typical of a developing country than of an industrial nation. They had also increased minimum wages massively - in 2010, it was 70 % higher than before they got the Euro, and higher than that of Spain, which is a more productive country. To explain it to a novice like you: If you borrow money from your bank, then use it to invest in a business that ends up becoming a profitable business, then taking out that loan actually led to sustainable growth and you will eventually be able to repay the loan and continue to live off the profits of the business you built. However, if you borrow the money, then spend it all on luxury goods, cocaine and hookers and when you run out of money and the bank says "we are not giving you more money", then you have not invested. You have simply consumed. And no matter how much you scream "AUSTERITY BAD AUSTERITY BAD", the bank will not give you more money - especially not if you are an arrogant shyster like Varoufakis who thinks he can show the rest of Europe the finger and blackmail them because "in the end, you will pay anyway" or if you are an uneducated populist communist like Tsipras who knows about as much about economics as Queen Elizabeth knows about the NBA.
Look at how ever single economy dipped in Europe after "austerity measures' were enacted in 2010-2011. The U.S. is the western economy that didn't dip - no austerity measures. Proof at the lies that ATW is peddling. Misinformation is his game.
Yeah we get it, if you don't keep spending money you don't have, you'll kill yourself. Printing/devaluing currency is just a wealth transfer from current holders of the money to whomever gets the printed money. But it's easier than raiding people's bank accounts or going door-to-door raiding people's mattresses. The Greeks simply don't have the wealth necessary to fund the social welfare state they want to. They can't find any lenders to bankroll it, and the moment they start printing/inflating their own currency, people will cash out of it. What they need is productivity to generate the wealth they don't currently have, which means saving, investing, working.
Looks like the "no" votes have won. I feel sorry for the reasonable Greeks. Greece is on its way to becoming a Venezuela/Argentina of Europe. I predict many young people leaving the failed communist state for a better future elsewhere in Europe.
I'm a bit surprised and impressed, if the opinion polls turn out correct (important to note that these were regular polls - not exit polls, and not actual results). I figured fear of the unknown would cause people to hesitate and vote yes. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow if the No vote holds. Stock markets are going to crash and there's going to be fear of contagion. But I suspect you'll hear some conciliatory comments from both Greece and the European partners, and there will ultimately be an agreement (much friendlier to Greece) in the next few weeks. This is a game of chicken, and Greece didn't blink - I think Europe will though, because the relative potential downside for them (economic crash) is much worse than it is to Greece (which would just be going from really really bad to really really really bad). I suspect you end up with a deal that involves debt relief (outright haircuts or restructure of maturities and payment terms), allowing more ways to fix budget issues (allowing tax hikes), and a lot of Tsipiras having to bow down and thank Europe/etc. Long term, they still need to get out of the Euro, but I'm not sure Europe will take that chance right now.
I seriously doubt stock markets will crash and if they do it will be a quick recovery. The global world economy can not be so fragile that Greece can completely knock it into despair. The demands that have been placed on Greece were unreasonable and untenable, and a no vote is not only not unexpected, but probably will help the world better deal with troubled economies in the future.
Democracy just doesn't work in Greece because the Greeks have shown time and time again that they'll vote for the wrong things and end up screwing themselves. Fiscal responsibility will never win elections there.
LOL Recovery from a slide all the way down to 70% of real GDP. Rich. Well, to be fair, the troika made the same mistake (actual projections).
The funny thing is that Tsipras and Varoufakis will celebrate this as some kind of huge victory, but it spells doom for Greece. Europe must continue to stand firm now.
The other thing is...who knows. Greece manipulated numbers to get into the Euro in the first place. Who knows what they did with the numbers in this "referendum".
The Greek perspective is so strange. It's as if Northside Intern borrowed lots of money from his local bank, then decided to use it all for gay hookers and cocaine, then insulted and attacked the bank for not giving him more money, screaming "AUSTERITY BAD AUSTERITY BAD" and then told the bank "I am going to ask my family whether I repay your loan or not". What does the bank care that his family voted to not repay the loan? Should Germany and Spain and the Netherlands now all hold referenda to determine whether they want to give Greece more money? I can promise you I know how those would turn out.
Intern: Address the graph I posted that includes Income per Capita since 1996 and Debt-to-GDP ratio in the same timeframe, rather than arbitrarily picking the timeframe from 2008 to 2015. Duh. Their debt bubble burst. And then they had a slide down to 70 % of real GDP. What was their real GDP in 1996? And how did they get to the 100 % they slid down from to 70 %?
Let's look at Greece's real GDP over a longer period of time. Now, the intern likes to selectively only take the bit from 2007 to 2014 and thinks it bolsters his "argument" "AUSTERITY BAD AUSTERITY BAD". The truth, however, is that Greece's real GDP steadily grew from the early 1990s. Then their unsustainable debt bubble burst and they had to undergo reforms. But their real GDP is still significantly higher than in the early 1990s. Things were actually starting to stabilize before the government of left-wing extremists and right-wing extremists in Greece took over. What does someone like Northside Intern say about the fact that in Greece, Syriza voted alongside the Golden Dawn to hold the referendum? Does their logo remind you of something? Yes. Those are the people who helped Syriza hold this "referendum".
"Corrections" like fiscal adjustments in a downturn that the troika consistently misprojected? The IMF has admitted as much that they consistenly underprojected the devastating effects of austerity and knew that the Greek debt load was unsustainable no matter what. Now you're going to carve out some argument that the "Greeks got what they deserve" which is even more sadistic than the Troika itself--which has just admitted that their policies were never designed to impose this much damage. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13156.pdf And as much as you are faulting the Greek people before the fact as everybody is want to do, your continued focus on Syriza is baffling. If anything, you're making your argument worse (though why we're having this argument is beyond me). You're trying to argue that it's Syriza's fault and that the degree of austerity is "natural" for the Greek people. You're abundantly wrong on the second point and it's absurd to argue the first now that you've brought in the notion that Greeks are suffering from rightful original sin way beyond Syriza. Nobody is arguing the Greek people were not profiligate in many ways, but the troika had an eye on the situation after the fact: everything you said from current account deficit--which the IMF noted was at 15% of GDP by 2008 to a government-led growth plan based on generous reductions in government interest payments was VERY CLEAR for everybody when policies were implemented. And if you'd read anything I cited that'd be VERY CLEAR for you. But the question isn't ("was Greece f**ked up"? yes) the question is "Does austerity work for situations where countries are f**ked?--and the answer is no. It has consistently degraded growth and unemployment well beyond projections. There were even some who thought fiscal contractions would lead to immediate growth: that has certainly been debunked. This isn't just true of Greece. The same absurd argument that Spain is turning a corner with systematic unemployment, profound youth unemployment and the added burden of huge debt/GDP (300% increase in 6 years) just shows how austerians have ridicolous notions of what it means to "turn a corner". If the original intent were to punish nations collectively with deep systematic scars then you can say austerity has succeeded on all counts. The overbearing debt dynamics make implementing systematic reforms with long-standing effects that much harder: but that didn't stop the Greek people from beginning and seeing the consequences of trying when the Great Depression was raging. Nobody in any other country would have accepted this level of contraction--America is a prime example of this. You're stuck faulting Syriza after austerity drastically magnified economic damage that made for a political environment of protest. You do this after you consistently degrade the Greeks past 2008. Your statement that Greeks "continued to ask for handouts without doing anything" is laughable in the face of significant pension, tax reforms in 2010 and 255,000 public sector layoffs, trade balance rebalancing and deficit reduction. So let me couch it for you: You had two arguments 1) The Greeks deserve the austerity that came for them, and the fiscal contractions that happened were part of the natural "cycle". 2) Syriza is at fault for everything. To argue this, you deployed the fact that Greece was in a terrible state much before Syriza (making this absurd argument more and more tangential and absurd) and you argued that austerity comes with natural consenquences. The second is an absurd argument. Of course there was some reversion to the mean but even in the wildest projections a second Great Depression was never the goal. That second Great Depression was caused by fiscal contractions gone awry. I quote from the IMF's chief economist: In summary: You blaming Greece pre 2008 for partying too hard makes your absurd venom for Syriza in this argument even more absurd. What actually happened here is that Eurozone banks were well aware their lenders were partying, but chose to look the other way. They knew they'd get the political backing of the EU, which manifested in the EFSF and ECB buying up Greek debt from them. Even then, speculators bought into Greek bonds thinking to take advantage of the volatility. Irresponsible lenders beget irresponsible borrowers. Then, when the public institutions took over, they came up with a plan of action for the said hedonist that involved detox. Instead, they accidently sent him to Gitmo. They then felt sorry for him, but kept him there because well, once you start, you can't really finish. The guy goes on a hunger strike. You immediately pounce and even though you were wrong to send him to Gitmo, have admitted that you were wrong to send him to Gitmo, well, now it's the radical left-wing cellmate's fault for encouraging that hunger strike. Because you've been wrong the entire time, but the man is a degenerate and you hate his cellmate so you continue with wrong-headed policy.
