Taking a look at the current state of the organization, a position by position opinion on how we sit moving forward. Looking at it differently than the 2015 thread that we discussed a couple of weeks ago, this is long term how do we feel..... 1B grade: Iffy Singleton certainly has potential, and you can see in his approach that he understands hitting. The power is legit obviously. The problem with the 1B situation is that Singleton has so many risk factors, baseball wise and other, and there is no other 1B in the organization that screams future major leaguer. Hopefully Conrad Gregor can continue to develop, cause you can't take the numbers at Lancaster and get overly excited 2B grade: All Star It's not just what Altuve has done this year, it's the fact that he has started every season out very well before falling off for various reasons. I believe that what we are seeing now is a guy who is finally mature enough physically, to handle being a player in the major leagues. His hitting ability itself is off the charts. Add in Kike (mom and all) and Kemp in the minors, and 2B looks like a position we are set at for years 3B grade: Average Two legit prospects following a young guy who has had off and on success in the bigs already, spells out a decent chance of being good at this position moving forward. Dominguez needs to develop more offensively, but it's easy to forget how young he is because he was brought up (Marlins) so young. He has been around a few years, but the guy is still just 25 years old. I'm not sold that we are set at 3B moving forward, but still think Dominguez could develop. Rio Ruiz is a legit prospect coming up behind Dominguez. When you take into account the health issues he had in high school, and the fact that he is having success at 21 years old, in my opinion he profiles as a future starter. Also have JD Davis, a high pick who is following Ruiz and off to a pretty good start himself. SS grade: Solid with All Star level potential It's all about Correa obviously. He is the jewel of the system and his development is going to go a long ways towards determining what type of team we have moving forward. Sucks that he had the major injury, cause going to AA this year would have set him up to potentially be in Houston next year. Fontana gives more "prospect depth", but it's really Correa or yikes Catcher grade: Solid Last year at this time everyone was talking about Castro as one of the top catchers in the AL. This year, he has been one of the worst. Long term truth very likely lies somewhere in between. I have confidence that Castro will be at least an average major league catcher moving forward. We need him to be honestly, because there isn't a lot of obvious prospects on the way. Stassi had the look last year obviously, but doesn't now. Holberton was a mid/high pick in 2013 that is having a good year so far, but no high ranked catching prospects on the come right now. OF grade: 1 Solid, 1 Average but iffy, 1 serious position of need Won't do this one by LF/CF/RF as some of that is interchangeable. Springer is the star, even with a .240 average he could be an all-star. His power is legit, and we are beginning to see some of the speed. I see a floor of a well above average regular, and a ceiling of a Super Star The Fowler story never seems to change. The guy can play in the majors. Solid on offense, solid on defense. Can't stay healthy though. Never could in Colorado and hasn't here. There is enough depth in the system that I give OF 2 a grade of average, because I think there is a likely chance that Fowler or one of the young guys develop into an everyday average OF. Santana/Tucker/DDJ/Teoscar/Vasquez gives the sytem great depth at the OF position. While all of these guys show upside, I don't think any of them show a floor of a no doubt major league OF. This is a serious position that needs to be addressed. We need to sign/trade for a solid, major league OF to solidify the position, and then let the propsect depth play itself out. DH: Bad Have to hope that we sign someone, or a prospect develops that is blocked at his position. This is a serious position of need. Ace: Non Existent Keuchel has had a great season before the last three starts, but let's be honest here, he is no legit ace. We have great depth of SP in our system, but no one that is showing future Staff Ace stuff right now. #2 Starter: Iffy at best Got to hope that Appel, Feliz or Folty develops into this spot. F&F certainly have shown the potential to get it done, but like the OF prospects, while they have high ceilings none of them have the floor of even a mid rotation starter #3 Starter: Solid I'll put Cosart here. Not sure how much he will improve his command, but even as he is now, he doesn't often get hit hard. The high pitch counts certainly keep him from rising above a #3 guy, but I feel comfortable with him in this spot for years to come. He is more likely to improve his command and climb to a higher spot than he is to fall off the charts #4 Starter: Keuchel While he is probably not going to have a sub 3 era as we move forward, he has shown enough to think he is going to be a solid rotation guy for years to come. I feel good with him as the #4 with potential for more. #5 Starter: As good as it gets Between McHugh and the other guys we have filling out the rotation now, and all of the depth in the system, I don't think the back end of the rotation will be an issue for years to come. We should be as good as anyone with our 4 and 5 spots over the next decade Closer: Solid Kind of crazy to give a good grade there, given the performance at the end of our bullpen the last few years. But when I see McCullers, Folty, Velasquez, Feliz . . .I think we have enough high quality arms, that someone who doesn't end up as a true rotation guy will end up throwing gas at the end of the pen. Bullpen: Solid Again, our pen has been awful. But while I worry about the floor of some of our prospects as starters, there are enough quality arms there that we should end up very good in the pen. Overall: Depends on what Crane wants to do to be honest. If he wants to add a legitimate OF bat, and a true front of the rotation starter, then I think we could be good in the next year or two. If it is going to be ALL about developing the prospects, it's gonna be a struggle for a while
They'll need Castro to figure it out sooner rather than later... he's about to get a hefty raise as he enters his arbitration years, and if the team was considering trading him before this year, you have to figure that likelihood could only have increased.
Agree he needs to figure it out sooner rather than later. But if he continues to play at his current pace, he won't hit it big in arbitration. And he certainly is no longer the trade piece that he was at this time last year. Who would give up anything legit for him right now? And if he does start to figure it out, and is playing well in the second half like he did last year, and we choose to trade him . . .then none of this matters really, if we are going to continue trading away anyone who has value . . .i don't think that is the direction we will continue to go though I think his likely future is gonna be as an average major league catcher for the Astros
Doesn't need to hit it big... even making $7 million next year (which is highly reasonable given his career arc) is enough money to consider either moving him or finding other catcher options (and making him a DH.... which would require him to make a great improvement in his hitting numbers). Its not about trading just anybody away who has "value" like the Marlins do... its about what sort of production they're able to provide at the position they play, and the salary they make, over potential (cheaper) replacement options. Chances are, he won't be the catcher of the 2017 World Champs (ironically, the year he'll be eligible for FA).
Ok, sure hope cheaper replacement isn't a big part of the organization going forward like you think though. You might be right, but if you are it's probably gonna be a rough decade
If Castro is closer to the 1.3 or 1.4 WAR he is now (and was in his first full season), vs. the 4.3 he was last year... I don't consider moving him simply a "cost cutting move". I'd consider it as them trying to get better. Certainly, if he was locked in to a cheap rate like Altuve was, you go with him... but he does stand to get a pretty decent raise starting next year, based on past (not current or future) performance.
Ok man, you are right I am wrong Let's not have this be a state of Jason Castro and his worth thread, and discuss the overall state of the organization, if anyone is interested Thanks
