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Lin without a ball dominant teammate

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Panda23, Jan 29, 2014.

  1. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    So Lin put in a good game tonight, obviously in the absence of Harden, so I went sifting through box scores, based on my detailed statistical analysis (I took a stats course at uni and got a HD thank you) basically;

    In 9 games without James Harden, Jeremy Lin has held averages of:

    21.2PTS, 6.3AST, 3RPG, 4.2 T/O, 1.5 AST/TO

    shot 84.8% from the line with 7.3 attempts per game,
    shot 48.8% from 3PT land, (42.8% sans Sixers game),
    shot 47.5% from the field with 13.3 Attempts.

    The team has gone 5-4.

    Now I was having a very mild mannered discussion with another poster on the topic of basically whether or not he or she felt that 'linsanity' (hate that word) was more or less a fluke.

    Now obviously the league has had plenty of time to scout Lin since his time in New York, where shakey dribbling and jumpitis still plagued his play, but in 8 games without Carmelo Anthony, Lin has held averages of:
    25 PTS, 9.5 AST, 3.6RPG, 6.5 T/O, 1.46 AST/TO

    shot 70.7% from the line with 8.1 attempts per game,
    shot 38.5% from 3PT land
    shot 50.7% from the field with 17.8 Attempts.

    The team went 7-1.

    Thus, leading to a total of 17 games (not sure if this is enough statistical evidence), where Lin without another ball-dominant player in Harden and Anthony, has held averages of:
    23PTS, 7.8AST, 3.3RPG, 5.3T/O, 1.46AST/TO

    shot 77.8% from the line with 7.7 attempts per game,
    shot 44.9% from 3PT land
    shot 49.2% from the field with 15.4 Attempts.

    Now obviously the NYK numbers are inflated due to Lin being unscouted, D'Antoni's ride em til they die PG offense that enhanced Lin's strengths (PnR play) and masked his weaknesses, but there is still some evidence (however limited) to suggest that Lin can indeed perform at a high level if given the opportunity, as shown by how he's performed without Harden.

    Now the caveat however, is that the offence does not run through Lin, and so it shouldn't given we have two superstars in Harden and Howard. Harden is an elite offensive weapon and is a bonafide triple threat, while the post game of Howard has shown glimpses of improvement despite looking rather poor tonight (please run more PnR.)

    Proponents of why Lin should start (the more rationale) believe that there is more offensive firepower with Harden and Lin on the court, and while there has been glimpses of the duo running on full cylinders, Lin has struggled immensely at times to find a suitable medium between being passive, aggressive, and reckless. It's the latter quality that lends to McHale preferring the much more consistent Beverley, who's performances can be rock solid compared to Lin who is more volatile.

    As such, the main points to drawn on is that Lin needs as much time on the floor without Harden, as shown by however much 17 games of data can actually show. I feel he's perfectly suited to the 6th man role, provided he actually runs the offense with a high volume of PnR and brings the aggression night in and night out. People have different opinions on whether or not the minutes should simply be staggered, but if you give Lin a CLEAR defined role as the 6th man to attack and be aggressive, we'll hopefully see more of what we saw at the start of the season. When he's confident, attacking the rim and decisive, Lin has shown to be an effective PG in this league, despite his weaknesses. When he isn't..... its not pretty.
     
    3 people like this.
  2. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    I didn't know where you were going with this at first. Good post.
     
  3. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

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    I think most people see him in the 6th man role, a lot like Harden was in OKC.

    Whether or not he is better than Bev, (just the same as Sef and Harden in OKC), he is better suited when he can control the ball more (aka 6th man).

    Then once crunch time starts you stick your hot hands out regardless of who they are.
     
  4. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    I think you're missing a game. See my sig.
     
  5. Old Man Rock

    Old Man Rock Contributing Member

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    All of this is great but what do you suggest, play Harden less and Lin more. I mean I was all over the LIN SHOULD START bandwagon when he was playing so well earlier. But then Beverly got hurt and Lin was inconsistent at best and stunk it up on many occassions.

    That train has gone. And with the exception of maybe a couple of minutes here and there Lin will not be placing Harden on the bench for long spurts.

    It's more than Lin being productive when Harden is out. It's also Lin needing considerable minutes as the man a team goes to so he can get his rhythm and that my friend ain't happening here in Houston.
     
  6. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    I omitted the nets game because Anthony played 35 minutes (shot 3-15 though), but including that, yes it would be 13-5.
     
  7. Aleron

    Aleron Contributing Member

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    I think the coaches have noticed as well, the last few games they were playing, Lin's substitution was being held back until late in the first, so he would get the entire late 1st and 2nd quarter stretch that Harden was on the bench. The minutes for the guard spots by half way through the 2nd would look like 10 & 10 for Harden and Lin, 14 (for Bev) and 2 for someone else
     
  8. subzor

    subzor Member

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    it feels like if lin plays 3min here sit for 7 min come back in for 5min sit another 3min come back in for 6min then his game just never gets in rhytmn. but if lin plays 10min straight rest a couple min and maybe plays another 15min, then his game is a lot better.
     
  9. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    Why don't you show offensive lineup production without Harden on the floor to show how the team performs with a Lin centered offense.

    Individual performance isn't really all that useful if it is at the cost of the team. The data I have looked at is that Lin is very good with Jones, but just awful with Parsons and Howard.

    The reality is, Harden is going to be on the floor 38-42 minutes on any given night, so Lin ball isn't much of an option here.
     
  10. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    I think McHale isn't confident enough to have Harden off the floor for extended minutes. We've seen despite him toughing it out and playing alot injured hes still averaging i think the 2nd highest MPG in the NBA.

    There HAS to be some room for Lin to take on more control of the offense even if just to allow Harden reduced MPG, because I don't know what we're going to have left of him come playoff time, especially given how he slumped in the back 1/3rd of last season.
     
  11. HardenWay

    HardenWay Member

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    That is why when Harden is in, Lin plays with the second unit.
     
  12. WaitForIt

    WaitForIt Member

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    Well, I mean Lin subs in for Bev, so he's still playing with Harden. Harden plays a ton of minutes too so Lin overlaps with him a lot. Actually, if Lin starts, he would probably have less time with Harden (like a few minutes) because Bev would sub for him, then Lin subs for Harden.

    Meh. Your point is moot in the end. It doesn't matter, like you say, because this isn't Lin's team. It is interesting that the Rockets aren't too down with Harden out in games this year. Partly because Lin is Harden-lite and we have Howard this year.
     
  13. Voice of Aus

    Voice of Aus Contributing Member

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    You could make the argument that teams can't properly scout us when harden is a late withdrawal at the last minute, if this was our team the whole year you could see different results in the W-L with a lot more attention on lin as harden gets regularly
     
  14. bilaal14

    bilaal14 Member

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    Lin would be gone soon, sad because he has been really coming along.
     
  15. Panda23

    Panda23 Member

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    Well thats just never going to happen though haha. This is Harden and Howards team as it should be, the onus is on Lin to be aggressive and contribute in whatever way the team needs
     
  16. vizier

    vizier Member

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    here is my fix for you:

    start lin and let harden comes off bench.
     
  17. WaitForIt

    WaitForIt Member

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    I just think it is what it is. Although, I find it weird when people want him to do more when he's really the 4th option on the team when everyone is healthy or even when Bev is out. The way they play him, they basically want him to be Shane Battier (spot up 3, not the D as much).
     
  18. lucnguye92

    lucnguye92 Member

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    This team would be set if we had Battier in his prime.
     
  19. aesthetics80

    aesthetics80 Member

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    Seems most don't take into context Lin's role on this team. I see Lin being compared negatively to so many other PG's which I feel isn't really a fair assessment. Most other PGs like Conley, Teague, Holiday, Wall, Lawson, etc. all have the main distributor/playmaker role in their team's offense. Lin by contrast is not even the 2nd or 3rd option offensively most nights and PG seems to be a community position that anybody can play. He doesn't have the luxury of bringing the ball up every possession or playing heavy minutes, these guys do.

    Put any of those PG's I listed on this team in Lin's role and playing time and watch all their stats plummet.
     
  20. BallardLocks

    BallardLocks Member

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    I agree with this. How about instead of asking a team to conform to Lin, you ask Lin to play with a killer mentality every game, and not shrivel up and hide when he's on the floor with another all-star. I watched him do it in New York, and he's doing it again in Houston.
     

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