I've heard multiple people complain about how Kevin Martin won't be useful in playoffs because NBA refs "swallow the whistle" during the playoffs. So, why don't we look at whether this is true. Now, we don't have evidence of the % of "true fouls" that were call or not called--and, conversely, the relative amount of "phantom fouls" that were called or not called-- in the regular season vs. in the playoffs. But we do have some other useful numbers. I think a 3 year sample on these is fair enough, but if you feel like doing more or propose other numbers, feel free to do so. (A prior contention, by the way, that he won't get foul calls due to the words "Rockets" or "Houston" on the uniform seems to have been quite clearly untrue, given his recent number of FT attempts.) 1. Personal fouled called on each team per game: 08-09 Regular season: 21.0 Playoffs: 21.9 07-08 Regular season: 21.0 Playoffs: 22.2 06-07 Regualar sesons: 22.2 Playoffs 21.9 2. Free Throw Attempted per Field Goal Attempted. Of course, not all fouls lead to Free Throws. The FTA/FGA stat is a convienient one to measure how often fouls that do lead to FAs are called during a game in comparison to the number of shots attempted. 08-09 Regular: .236 Playoffs: .259 07-08 Regular: .231 Playoffs: .254 06-07 Regular: .246 Playoffs: .250 Sure seems like people get called for fouls for just as many times per game in the playoffs as they do in regular season, and shoot free throws just as frequently, too. Of course, it could well be that team foul much more often in the playoffs than they do in regular season and only get called the same amount. But does that make a frequent FT shooter less effective than someone who rely on taking and making FGs to get his points? If could also be that playoff teams tend to foul more and draw more fouls in regular season than other NBA teams (and I don't have the energy to do that calculation, if someone does it, I'd appreciate it) and then get called less than their usual number of "deserved calls" in the playoffs. Could be true, but kind of doubt it. In any case, I don't know how many "missed" calls there are, but it sure seems like NBA refs call plenty of fouls and send guys to the line just as often in the average playoff game as they do in the average regular season game.
What would be more useful is data on individual players, like Lebron, Kobe, Wade etc...and take that data and massage it for a usage increase etc. I think Kmart will get calls, Yao actually got MORE calls in the playoffs, IMO...and this is observational only......Stars get the same or more calls, and bit or role players get less. DD
I started looking at playoff teams but I have to catch a flight so only got through 09. In 08-09, playoff teams committed 20.6 PF/game in the regular season -- below the league average. In other words, teams playing in the playoffs were slightly less likely to commit fouls. They also had an ever so slightly higher FTA/FGA of .237, but not substantially so (CH -- I think you used FTA/(FGA+FTA) based on the numbers here - http://www.basketballreference.com/leagues/leagueyear.htm?lg=N&yr=2008). On the other side, teams in the playoffs did do a better job of drawing fouls -- on average 21.1. They also hold their opponents to better FTA/FGA of .228. In the net, it looks like this myth can indeed be put to bed.
Kevin Martin after the 2006 playoffs <object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q7RVp3DvX1o&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q7RVp3DvX1o&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object> The refs probably let the players play. And use call fouls to keep the game in control. I can see stars getting calls and role players getting hosed. Like if Chuck Hayes guarded Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, Hayes getting called for a couple ticky tack reach ins they'd normally leave alone in the regular season. But as the series progresses and refs get used to the 2 teams styles, the calls even out.
Here are all "low usage" players (< 20%) who played at least 3000 regular season minutes and 80 playoff minutes from 06-07 through 08-09, ordered by playoff minutes: USG%: estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor. FTA: free throw attempts per 36 minutes played FTA/FGA: free throw attempts per 100 FGA attempted. Code: [size=1] [B] regular season playoffs difference --------------------------------- -------------------------------- ----------------------- [/B] Rk Player min USG% FTA FTA/FGA min USG% FTA FTA/FGM USG% FTA FTA/FGA 1 Derek Fisher 6977 17.1 3.2 29.1 1743 14.6 3.2 36.4 -2.5 0.0 +7.3 2 Lamar Odom 7439 18 4.2 40.0 1713 18.8 4.9 45.8 +0.8 +0.7 +5.8 3 Tayshaun Prince 8752 19.3 2.9 23.8 1465 18 2.2 20.6 -1.3 -0.7 -3.2 4 Bruce Bowen 6420 9.6 0.9 14.8 1327 9.3 0.5 8.2 -0.3 -0.4 -6.6 5 Rasheed Wallace 6888 19.6 2 15.7 1280 19.7 2.2 18.2 +0.1 +0.2 +2.4 6 Kendrick Perkins 5741 13.6 2.8 40.6 1143 13.9 2.8 38.4 +0.3 0.0 -2.2 7 Anderson Varejao 5558 13.9 3.9 50.0 1107 13.5 3 41.1 -0.4 -0.9 -8.9 8 Michael Finley 6363 17.9 1.4 11.7 1072 16.3 1.7 15.9 -1.6 +0.3 +4.2 9 Jason Kidd 8725 17 2.1 21.9 1050 16.5 1.8 19.6 -0.5 -0.3 -2.3 10 Andrei Kirilenko 6097 16.8 4.8 53.3 1050 16.8 3.9 40.2 0.0 -0.9 -13.1 11 Delonte West 5904 18.1 2.4 21.6 1044 17 2.9 31.5 -1.1 +0.5 +9.9 12 Shane Battier 7926 11.4 1.3 17.6 1014 10.7 1.5 23.8 -0.7 +0.2 +6.2 13 Antonio McDyess 5880 16.4 2.3 22.5 958 17.2 2.3 22.8 +0.8 0.0 +0.2 14 Daniel Gibson 4548 15.3 1.8 18.6 858 16.5 2.9 29.6 +1.2 +1.1 +11.0 15 Ben Wallace 6216 9.8 2.9 53.7 849 8.5 3.4 81.0 -1.3 +0.5 +27.2 16 James Posey 5880 13.9 2.2 26.2 835 14.1 3.1 38.8 +0.2 +0.9 +12.6 17 Mickael Pietrus 4582 17 3.3 30.0 827 17 4.4 45.4 0.0 +1.1 +15.4 18 Sasha Pavlovic 3775 18 2.5 22.5 818 17.4 2 19.4 -0.6 -0.5 -3.1 19 Trevor Ariza 3822 17.4 3.9 37.5 814 16.3 3.2 34.0 -1.1 -0.7 -3.5 20 Luke Walton 4877 16.1 2.3 23.2 813 16.1 2.6 28.3 0.0 +0.3 +5.0 21 Fabricio Oberto 3688 11.7 1.4 21.2 768 10.8 1.6 25.8 -0.9 +0.2 +4.6 22 Sasha Vujacic 3507 17.2 2.2 18.6 749 17.6 2 17.5 +0.4 -0.2 -1.1 23 Jordan Farmar 3972 18.8 1.7 14.0 734 17.9 2.1 18.6 -0.9 +0.4 +4.5 24 Nene Hilario 4491 18.5 5.6 53.8 734 17 4.5 48.9 -1.5 -1.1 -4.9 25 Kenyon Martin 4333 17.5 3.5 31.0 656 16.3 2.4 23.5 -1.2 -1.1 -7.4 26 Raja Bell 7878 16 1.6 14.7 653 10.9 1.7 25.0 -5.1 +0.1 +10.3 27 Maurice Evans 5292 16 2.1 19.6 629 13.7 0.8 8.7 -2.3 -1.3 -10.9 28 Paul Millsap 5464 18.8 5 45.9 628 17.7 3.8 34.9 -1.1 -1.2 -11.0 29 Peja Stojakovic 5225 19.8 1.9 14.2 617 16.7 2.3 21.7 -3.1 +0.4 +7.5 30 Jason Maxiell 4119 16.6 4.9 54.4 581 13 4 60.6 -3.6 -0.9 +6.2 31 Kirk Hinrich 6558 19.9 2.8 22.4 572 18.7 3.2 28.3 -1.2 +0.4 +5.9 32 Kurt Thomas 4196 12.8 1.7 20.7 560 15.4 1.8 19.1 +2.6 +0.1 -1.6 33 Al Horford 4782 16.2 3.1 32.6 529 15.6 3.1 34.8 -0.6 0.0 +2.2 34 Tyson Chandler 6753 13.5 3.4 47.2 506 10.3 1.6 28.1 -3.2 -1.8 -19.2 35 Ronnie Brewer 5368 18.1 4.6 41.4 504 17.6 3.9 34.8 -0.5 -0.7 -6.6 36 Brent Barry 3042 14.8 1.9 21.1 487 15.1 1.3 14.3 +0.3 -0.6 -6.8 37 Vladimir Radmanovic 3914 17.7 1.8 16.1 481 16.7 0.4 3.5 -1.0 -1.4 -12.5 38 Morris Peterson 3826 17.4 2.1 18.4 481 12.1 1.2 15.8 -5.3 -0.9 -2.6 39 Joe Smith 4331 19 3.6 29.5 480 15.9 3.8 40.9 -3.1 +0.2 +11.4 40 Chuck Hayes 4147 9.8 1.1 19.0 478 6.7 0.4 10.8 -3.1 -0.7 -8.2 41 Mikki Moore 5669 13.5 3 39.5 465 15.1 2.7 31.8 +1.6 -0.3 -7.7 42 Shawn Marion 7795 18.7 2.5 20.5 455 17.7 2.6 21.7 -1.0 +0.1 +1.2 43 Andrew Bynum 4247 18.1 4.6 43.8 455 18.7 4.2 37.5 +0.6 -0.4 -6.3 44 Anthony Parker 7708 16.5 2 18.9 436 15.8 4.4 47.8 -0.7 +2.4 +29.0 45 Boris Diaw 7330 17.4 1.9 18.4 413 17.7 1.8 16.8 +0.3 -0.1 -1.6 46 Steve Blake 6837 15.1 1.1 11.6 411 11.7 0.6 9.0 -3.4 -0.5 -2.6 47 James Jones 3282 15.1 2.3 23.0 406 10.9 3.1 51.7 -4.2 +0.8 +28.7 48 Linas Kleiza 5201 18.9 3.8 30.9 398 16 3.5 32.1 -2.9 -0.3 +1.2 49 Kyle Korver 5894 19 2.8 23.1 395 16.3 2.9 26.9 -2.7 +0.1 +3.7 50 Antonio Daniels 4943 14.3 4.1 52.6 394 14.8 4.5 60.0 +0.5 +0.4 +7.4 51 Thaddeus Young 4131 19.4 2.5 19.8 389 17.2 1.9 17.3 -2.2 -0.6 -2.6 52 Erick Dampier 5506 11.5 3.1 53.4 388 11.7 3.1 59.6 +0.2 0.0 +6.2 53 Zaza Pachulia 4442 19 6.1 63.5 365 17.3 6.2 80.5 -1.7 +0.1 +17.0 54 Ime Udoka 4495 15.1 1.5 16.0 340 15.5 1.3 13.5 +0.4 -0.2 -2.4 55 Matt Barnes 5309 17.9 2.3 19.5 330 17.1 2 18.3 -0.8 -0.3 -1.1 56 Jason Collins 3438 7.6 2.4 68.6 329 6.1 1.2 52.2 -1.5 -1.2 -16.4 57 Samuel Dalembert 7295 15.4 3 34.5 326 14.1 2.5 32.1 -1.3 -0.5 -2.4 58 Brandon Bass 3293 19.8 4.6 40.4 325 18.5 6.2 58.5 -1.3 +1.6 +18.1 59 DeShawn Stevenson 5869 17.1 2.9 26.9 318 19.3 2.8 23.3 +2.2 -0.1 -3.5 60 John Salmons 7611 18.9 3.8 33.3 313 19.5 3.9 31.7 +0.6 +0.1 -1.6 61 Marcus Camby 7052 14.7 3.1 34.1 308 13.2 1.4 18.2 -1.5 -1.7 -15.9 62 Udonis Haslem 6849 16.2 2.7 27.6 307 14.2 2.1 25.3 -2.0 -0.6 -2.2 63 Anthony Carter 3783 14.1 1.6 19.3 303 12.4 0.6 7.5 -1.7 -1.0 -11.8 64 Keith Bogans 4460 14.4 1.9 20.4 293 13 1.4 16.7 -1.4 -0.5 -3.8 65 Roger Mason 4696 18.8 1.6 13.0 293 18.4 2.1 17.9 -0.4 +0.5 +4.9 66 Anthony Johnson 4313 14.9 1.5 16.7 280 18.1 2.3 21.1 +3.2 +0.8 +4.4 67 Dahntay Jones 3303 16.1 4.1 44.1 280 18.1 5.5 53.9 +2.0 +1.4 +9.8 68 Joakim Noah 3472 13.8 3.9 50.6 271 11.8 3.3 48.5 -2.0 -0.6 -2.1 69 Andris Biedrins 6323 14.9 3.2 34.0 267 9.8 4 80.0 -5.1 +0.8 +46.0 70 Kyle Lowry 3943 18.2 5.5 56.7 254 17.7 4.4 49.4 -0.5 -1.1 -7.3 71 Ronny Turiaf 4241 14.7 3.8 43.2 235 13.9 4.1 53.2 -0.8 +0.3 +10.1 72 Francisco Elson 3122 13.9 1.8 22.8 230 14.8 3.1 44.9 +0.9 +1.3 +22.1 73 Jason Kapono 5128 17.7 1.1 9.4 229 15.3 0.9 8.2 -2.4 -0.2 -1.2 74 Brendan Haywood 4143 15.7 4.6 52.9 212 16 4.9 56.3 +0.3 +0.3 +3.4 75 Grant Hill 6676 19 4 35.1 211 16.8 5.8 69.0 -2.2 +1.8 +34.0 76 Josh Childress 4300 15.7 4.1 45.1 205 11.4 2.1 28.4 -4.3 -2.0 -16.7 77 Jarvis Hayes 4745 18.1 1.5 12.2 200 20 1.3 9.5 +1.9 -0.2 -2.7 78 Luther Head 4088 18.6 1.8 15.5 185 17.1 1.9 19.6 -1.5 +0.1 +4.1 79 Reggie Evans 4146 13.8 5.3 82.8 184 16 5.5 80.9 +2.2 +0.2 -1.9 80 Eduardo Najera 3641 12.2 2.3 29.1 174 9.8 0.4 6.3 -2.4 -1.9 -22.9 81 Chris Duhon 6302 14.5 2.2 25.6 172 11.4 2.1 32.3 -3.1 -0.1 +6.7 82 Joel Przybilla 4472 10 2.6 54.2 162 7.4 1.3 32.5 -2.6 -1.3 -21.7 83 Daequan Cook 3274 18.9 1.2 9.4 161 15.7 0.4 4.3 -3.2 -0.8 -5.2 84 Rasual Butler 5712 17.1 1.4 12.0 158 14.1 2.1 25.0 -3.0 +0.7 +13.0 85 Rasho Nesterovic 4376 16.3 1.1 10.1 148 15.3 1.2 13.3 -1.0 +0.1 +3.2 86 Jamario Moon 4234 13.4 1.4 15.7 144 12.9 0.7 8.2 -0.5 -0.7 -7.5 87 DeSagana Diop 3811 9.3 2.1 44.7 140 6.9 1.8 46.2 -2.4 -0.3 +1.5 88 Matt Bonner 3435 16.9 1.1 9.8 134 14.5 1.1 12.4 -2.4 0.0 +2.5 89 Josh Boone 3437 15.2 4.2 48.8 118 15.3 7.3 100.0 +0.1 +3.1 +51.2 90 Darko Milicic 4610 17.7 3.6 35.0 115 18.2 5.3 50.0 +0.5 +1.7 +15.0 91 Jason Williams 3751 17.6 1.8 16.8 112 14 1.6 17.8 -3.6 -0.2 +1.0 92 Joey Graham 3191 18.5 3.8 34.2 111 13.5 1.6 21.3 -5.0 -2.2 -12.9 93 Thabo Sefolosha 3755 15.9 2.1 21.2 99 17.9 4.4 46.3 +2.0 +2.3 +25.1 94 Rodney Carney 3407 19.1 2.5 19.5 84 17.7 0.9 6.8 -1.4 -1.6 -12.8 [/size] On average, USG% drops by 1.1%, FTA/36min drops by 0.1, and FTA per 100 FGA goes up 2.1. The numbers are similar if I weight it by playoff minutes: USG% drops by 0.9%, FTA/36min drops by 0.1, and FTA per 100 FGA goes up 1.8. So, Carl Herrera's point about free throw attempts per field goal attempt stands even for role players.
Agreed, good thread, good info and it looks like the observational data, is trumped by the truth. Well done Durv and CH. DD
Having the ability to get to the line is rewarded most of the time in the playoffs. Over relying on jump shooting leads to defeat. That's why Wade won over Dirk.
Morey probably had this all figured out before he acquired all these FT shooting studs...he wouldn't be so shortsighted as to consider regular season only. Now we have Lowry, Martin, and Yao who draw fouls and shoot FTs at a prolific rate.
Playoffs? The way the Rockets are playing (especially since the trade) we aren't likely to even make an 8th seed. One year ago we were championship contenders at the start of the year (on paper, before the injuries), now we are lottery bound.
i think we only had a few weak FT shooters if any on our b2b championship teams. even chucky brown shot okay i think. next season will be interesting.
he is talkin about in general...at some point kevin martin will go to the playoffs in a rockets jersey.
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I guess this is the only year we'll be able to get into the playoffs? Damn. I may as well hang up my Rockets cap as there's no future in being a Rockets fan.
Thank you Carl Herrera for a very factual analysis, the result is quite surprising! Thanks also posting a Pure Basketball Question, it's about time we went back to this level on our Forum.Y
I'm one of the posters who brought up the "refs swallowing their whistle" issue in relation to Martin and Lowry. That was before I actually looked at the numbers. As for Lowry, looking at the stats on "low usage" players uploaded by durvasa, his numbers do take a dip. His FTA per 36 minutes drops by 1.1 (from 5.5 to 4.4) and his FTA/FGA drops by 7 percentage points (from 56.7% to 49.4%). A decrease, certainly, but not enough to prove anything, especially a bias on the part of the refs. Anyway, thanks Carl Herrera and durvasa for the interesting statistics.
That still leaves the issue of whether the refs will let a team consistently get more ft attempts then the opposition, whether playoffs or regular season, even if it is earned. I would think the tendency would be to try and balance out fouls, because guys like Cuban are going to complain if you don't. Are the refs going to allow harder fouls against us, while raising the standard on us, calling ticky tacks fouls just to balance it out? I would imagine it's hard to get data, and even so, the sample size would be probably be too small to be conclusive. If several high ft players move to the same team, does the total team ft go up? What's the standard deviation for total team ft between the different teams? Thinking out loud, that last bit is probably answerable with data, and would probably put this to rest.
Awesome, thanks. This answered the question a lot of people were asking in my "we're going to get fouled a lot" thread. I think the subjective impression of the refs "swallowing their whistles" may be based on the increased intensity of playoff games. Perhaps with increased intensity comes a slightly increased threshold for what is a foul, a threshold which is still met at an equal or greater rate to the regular season because of, again, the increased intensity. Another plausible explanation is that teams are less likely to fold in end-game situations in the playoffs. Down by 8, 50 seconds left, game 60 of the season, 2nd night of a back to back, you probably take your 2 posessions and go home. In the playoffs, same game situation, you're fighting for your life, so you're more likely to make the opposition take some foul shots and see if you can make a miracle run. That might explain some of the increase in fouls called.