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The Myth of the Playoff Swallows

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Carl Herrera, Feb 28, 2010.

  1. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    I've heard multiple people complain about how Kevin Martin won't be useful in playoffs because NBA refs "swallow the whistle" during the playoffs.

    So, why don't we look at whether this is true. Now, we don't have evidence of the % of "true fouls" that were call or not called--and, conversely, the relative amount of "phantom fouls" that were called or not called-- in the regular season vs. in the playoffs. But we do have some other useful numbers.

    I think a 3 year sample on these is fair enough, but if you feel like doing more or propose other numbers, feel free to do so.

    [​IMG]

    (A prior contention, by the way, that he won't get foul calls due to the words "Rockets" or "Houston" on the uniform seems to have been quite clearly untrue, given his recent number of FT attempts.)


    1. Personal fouled called on each team per game:

    08-09
    Regular season: 21.0 Playoffs: 21.9

    07-08
    Regular season: 21.0 Playoffs: 22.2

    06-07
    Regualar sesons: 22.2 Playoffs 21.9


    2. Free Throw Attempted per Field Goal Attempted. Of course, not all fouls lead to Free Throws. The FTA/FGA stat is a convienient one to measure how often fouls that do lead to FAs are called during a game in comparison to the number of shots attempted.

    08-09
    Regular: .236 Playoffs: .259

    07-08
    Regular: .231 Playoffs: .254

    06-07
    Regular: .246 Playoffs: .250




    Sure seems like people get called for fouls for just as many times per game in the playoffs as they do in regular season, and shoot free throws just as frequently, too.

    Of course, it could well be that team foul much more often in the playoffs than they do in regular season and only get called the same amount. But does that make a frequent FT shooter less effective than someone who rely on taking and making FGs to get his points?

    If could also be that playoff teams tend to foul more and draw more fouls in regular season than other NBA teams (and I don't have the energy to do that calculation, if someone does it, I'd appreciate it) and then get called less than their usual number of "deserved calls" in the playoffs. Could be true, but kind of doubt it.

    In any case, I don't know how many "missed" calls there are, but it sure seems like NBA refs call plenty of fouls and send guys to the line just as often in the average playoff game as they do in the average regular season game.
     
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  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    What would be more useful is data on individual players, like Lebron, Kobe, Wade etc...and take that data and massage it for a usage increase etc.

    I think Kmart will get calls, Yao actually got MORE calls in the playoffs, IMO...and this is observational only......Stars get the same or more calls, and bit or role players get less.

    DD
     
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  3. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    I started looking at playoff teams but I have to catch a flight so only got through 09.

    In 08-09, playoff teams committed 20.6 PF/game in the regular season -- below the league average. In other words, teams playing in the playoffs were slightly less likely to commit fouls.

    They also had an ever so slightly higher FTA/FGA of .237, but not substantially so (CH -- I think you used FTA/(FGA+FTA) based on the numbers here - http://www.basketballreference.com/leagues/leagueyear.htm?lg=N&yr=2008).

    On the other side, teams in the playoffs did do a better job of drawing fouls -- on average 21.1. They also hold their opponents to better FTA/FGA of .228.

    In the net, it looks like this myth can indeed be put to bed.
     
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  4. Shroopy2

    Shroopy2 Contributing Member

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    Kevin Martin after the 2006 playoffs
    <object width="480" height="295"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q7RVp3DvX1o&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Q7RVp3DvX1o&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="480" height="295"></embed></object>


    The refs probably let the players play. And use call fouls to keep the game in control.

    I can see stars getting calls and role players getting hosed. Like if Chuck Hayes guarded Kevin Garnett in the playoffs, Hayes getting called for a couple ticky tack reach ins they'd normally leave alone in the regular season. But as the series progresses and refs get used to the 2 teams styles, the calls even out.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Here are all "low usage" players (< 20%) who played at least 3000 regular season minutes and 80 playoff minutes from 06-07 through 08-09, ordered by playoff minutes:

    USG%: estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.
    FTA: free throw attempts per 36 minutes played
    FTA/FGA: free throw attempts per 100 FGA attempted.

    Code:
    [size=1]
    [B]                                     regular season                  playoffs                         difference
                              ---------------------------------   --------------------------------    ----------------------- [/B]
    Rk    Player              min     USG%     FTA     FTA/FGA    min      USG%     FTA    FTA/FGM    USG%     FTA     FTA/FGA
    1     Derek Fisher        6977    17.1     3.2     29.1       1743     14.6     3.2    36.4       -2.5     0.0     +7.3
    2     Lamar Odom          7439    18       4.2     40.0       1713     18.8     4.9    45.8       +0.8     +0.7    +5.8
    3     Tayshaun Prince     8752    19.3     2.9     23.8       1465     18       2.2    20.6       -1.3     -0.7    -3.2
    4     Bruce Bowen         6420    9.6      0.9     14.8       1327     9.3      0.5    8.2        -0.3     -0.4    -6.6
    5     Rasheed Wallace     6888    19.6     2       15.7       1280     19.7     2.2    18.2       +0.1     +0.2    +2.4
    6     Kendrick Perkins    5741    13.6     2.8     40.6       1143     13.9     2.8    38.4       +0.3     0.0     -2.2
    7     Anderson Varejao    5558    13.9     3.9     50.0       1107     13.5     3      41.1       -0.4     -0.9    -8.9
    8     Michael Finley      6363    17.9     1.4     11.7       1072     16.3     1.7    15.9       -1.6     +0.3    +4.2
    9     Jason Kidd          8725    17       2.1     21.9       1050     16.5     1.8    19.6       -0.5     -0.3    -2.3
    10    Andrei Kirilenko    6097    16.8     4.8     53.3       1050     16.8     3.9    40.2       0.0      -0.9    -13.1
    11    Delonte West        5904    18.1     2.4     21.6       1044     17       2.9    31.5       -1.1     +0.5    +9.9
    12    Shane Battier       7926    11.4     1.3     17.6       1014     10.7     1.5    23.8       -0.7     +0.2    +6.2
    13    Antonio McDyess     5880    16.4     2.3     22.5       958      17.2     2.3    22.8       +0.8     0.0     +0.2
    14    Daniel Gibson       4548    15.3     1.8     18.6       858      16.5     2.9    29.6       +1.2     +1.1    +11.0
    15    Ben Wallace         6216    9.8      2.9     53.7       849      8.5      3.4    81.0       -1.3     +0.5    +27.2
    16    James Posey         5880    13.9     2.2     26.2       835      14.1     3.1    38.8       +0.2     +0.9    +12.6
    17    Mickael Pietrus     4582    17       3.3     30.0       827      17       4.4    45.4       0.0      +1.1    +15.4
    18    Sasha Pavlovic      3775    18       2.5     22.5       818      17.4     2      19.4       -0.6     -0.5    -3.1
    19    Trevor Ariza        3822    17.4     3.9     37.5       814      16.3     3.2    34.0       -1.1     -0.7    -3.5
    20    Luke Walton         4877    16.1     2.3     23.2       813      16.1     2.6    28.3       0.0      +0.3    +5.0
    21    Fabricio Oberto     3688    11.7     1.4     21.2       768      10.8     1.6    25.8       -0.9     +0.2    +4.6
    22    Sasha Vujacic       3507    17.2     2.2     18.6       749      17.6     2      17.5       +0.4     -0.2    -1.1
    23    Jordan Farmar       3972    18.8     1.7     14.0       734      17.9     2.1    18.6       -0.9     +0.4    +4.5
    24    Nene Hilario        4491    18.5     5.6     53.8       734      17       4.5    48.9       -1.5     -1.1    -4.9
    25    Kenyon Martin       4333    17.5     3.5     31.0       656      16.3     2.4    23.5       -1.2     -1.1    -7.4
    26    Raja Bell           7878    16       1.6     14.7       653      10.9     1.7    25.0       -5.1     +0.1    +10.3
    27    Maurice Evans       5292    16       2.1     19.6       629      13.7     0.8    8.7        -2.3     -1.3    -10.9
    28    Paul Millsap        5464    18.8     5       45.9       628      17.7     3.8    34.9       -1.1     -1.2    -11.0
    29    Peja Stojakovic     5225    19.8     1.9     14.2       617      16.7     2.3    21.7       -3.1     +0.4    +7.5
    30    Jason Maxiell       4119    16.6     4.9     54.4       581      13       4      60.6       -3.6     -0.9    +6.2
    31    Kirk Hinrich        6558    19.9     2.8     22.4       572      18.7     3.2    28.3       -1.2     +0.4    +5.9
    32    Kurt Thomas         4196    12.8     1.7     20.7       560      15.4     1.8    19.1       +2.6     +0.1    -1.6
    33    Al Horford          4782    16.2     3.1     32.6       529      15.6     3.1    34.8       -0.6     0.0     +2.2
    34    Tyson Chandler      6753    13.5     3.4     47.2       506      10.3     1.6    28.1       -3.2     -1.8    -19.2
    35    Ronnie Brewer       5368    18.1     4.6     41.4       504      17.6     3.9    34.8       -0.5     -0.7    -6.6
    36    Brent Barry         3042    14.8     1.9     21.1       487      15.1     1.3    14.3       +0.3     -0.6    -6.8
    37    Vladimir Radmanovic 3914    17.7     1.8     16.1       481      16.7     0.4    3.5        -1.0     -1.4    -12.5
    38    Morris Peterson     3826    17.4     2.1     18.4       481      12.1     1.2    15.8       -5.3     -0.9    -2.6
    39    Joe Smith           4331    19       3.6     29.5       480      15.9     3.8    40.9       -3.1     +0.2    +11.4
    40    Chuck Hayes         4147    9.8      1.1     19.0       478      6.7      0.4    10.8       -3.1     -0.7    -8.2
    41    Mikki Moore         5669    13.5     3       39.5       465      15.1     2.7    31.8       +1.6     -0.3    -7.7
    42    Shawn Marion        7795    18.7     2.5     20.5       455      17.7     2.6    21.7       -1.0     +0.1    +1.2
    43    Andrew Bynum        4247    18.1     4.6     43.8       455      18.7     4.2    37.5       +0.6     -0.4    -6.3
    44    Anthony Parker      7708    16.5     2       18.9       436      15.8     4.4    47.8       -0.7     +2.4    +29.0
    45    Boris Diaw          7330    17.4     1.9     18.4       413      17.7     1.8    16.8       +0.3     -0.1    -1.6
    46    Steve Blake         6837    15.1     1.1     11.6       411      11.7     0.6    9.0        -3.4     -0.5    -2.6
    47    James Jones         3282    15.1     2.3     23.0       406      10.9     3.1    51.7       -4.2     +0.8    +28.7
    48    Linas Kleiza        5201    18.9     3.8     30.9       398      16       3.5    32.1       -2.9     -0.3    +1.2
    49    Kyle Korver         5894    19       2.8     23.1       395      16.3     2.9    26.9       -2.7     +0.1    +3.7
    50    Antonio Daniels     4943    14.3     4.1     52.6       394      14.8     4.5    60.0       +0.5     +0.4    +7.4
    51    Thaddeus Young      4131    19.4     2.5     19.8       389      17.2     1.9    17.3       -2.2     -0.6    -2.6
    52    Erick Dampier       5506    11.5     3.1     53.4       388      11.7     3.1    59.6       +0.2     0.0     +6.2
    53    Zaza Pachulia       4442    19       6.1     63.5       365      17.3     6.2    80.5       -1.7     +0.1    +17.0
    54    Ime Udoka           4495    15.1     1.5     16.0       340      15.5     1.3    13.5       +0.4     -0.2    -2.4
    55    Matt Barnes         5309    17.9     2.3     19.5       330      17.1     2      18.3       -0.8     -0.3    -1.1
    56    Jason Collins       3438    7.6      2.4     68.6       329      6.1      1.2    52.2       -1.5     -1.2    -16.4
    57    Samuel Dalembert    7295    15.4     3       34.5       326      14.1     2.5    32.1       -1.3     -0.5    -2.4
    58    Brandon Bass        3293    19.8     4.6     40.4       325      18.5     6.2    58.5       -1.3     +1.6    +18.1
    59    DeShawn Stevenson   5869    17.1     2.9     26.9       318      19.3     2.8    23.3       +2.2     -0.1    -3.5
    60    John Salmons        7611    18.9     3.8     33.3       313      19.5     3.9    31.7       +0.6     +0.1    -1.6
    61    Marcus Camby        7052    14.7     3.1     34.1       308      13.2     1.4    18.2       -1.5     -1.7    -15.9
    62    Udonis Haslem       6849    16.2     2.7     27.6       307      14.2     2.1    25.3       -2.0     -0.6    -2.2
    63    Anthony Carter      3783    14.1     1.6     19.3       303      12.4     0.6    7.5        -1.7     -1.0    -11.8
    64    Keith Bogans        4460    14.4     1.9     20.4       293      13       1.4    16.7       -1.4     -0.5    -3.8
    65    Roger Mason         4696    18.8     1.6     13.0       293      18.4     2.1    17.9       -0.4     +0.5    +4.9
    66    Anthony Johnson     4313    14.9     1.5     16.7       280      18.1     2.3    21.1       +3.2     +0.8    +4.4
    67    Dahntay Jones       3303    16.1     4.1     44.1       280      18.1     5.5    53.9       +2.0     +1.4    +9.8
    68    Joakim Noah         3472    13.8     3.9     50.6       271      11.8     3.3    48.5       -2.0     -0.6    -2.1
    69    Andris Biedrins     6323    14.9     3.2     34.0       267      9.8      4      80.0       -5.1     +0.8    +46.0
    70    Kyle Lowry          3943    18.2     5.5     56.7       254      17.7     4.4    49.4       -0.5     -1.1    -7.3
    71    Ronny Turiaf        4241    14.7     3.8     43.2       235      13.9     4.1    53.2       -0.8     +0.3    +10.1
    72    Francisco Elson     3122    13.9     1.8     22.8       230      14.8     3.1    44.9       +0.9     +1.3    +22.1
    73    Jason Kapono        5128    17.7     1.1     9.4        229      15.3     0.9    8.2        -2.4     -0.2    -1.2
    74    Brendan Haywood     4143    15.7     4.6     52.9       212      16       4.9    56.3       +0.3     +0.3    +3.4
    75    Grant Hill          6676    19       4       35.1       211      16.8     5.8    69.0       -2.2     +1.8    +34.0
    76    Josh Childress      4300    15.7     4.1     45.1       205      11.4     2.1    28.4       -4.3     -2.0    -16.7
    77    Jarvis Hayes        4745    18.1     1.5     12.2       200      20       1.3    9.5        +1.9     -0.2    -2.7
    78    Luther Head         4088    18.6     1.8     15.5       185      17.1     1.9    19.6       -1.5     +0.1    +4.1
    79    Reggie Evans        4146    13.8     5.3     82.8       184      16       5.5    80.9       +2.2     +0.2    -1.9
    80    Eduardo Najera      3641    12.2     2.3     29.1       174      9.8      0.4    6.3        -2.4     -1.9    -22.9
    81    Chris Duhon         6302    14.5     2.2     25.6       172      11.4     2.1    32.3       -3.1     -0.1    +6.7
    82    Joel Przybilla      4472    10       2.6     54.2       162      7.4      1.3    32.5       -2.6     -1.3    -21.7
    83    Daequan Cook        3274    18.9     1.2     9.4        161      15.7     0.4    4.3        -3.2     -0.8    -5.2
    84    Rasual Butler       5712    17.1     1.4     12.0       158      14.1     2.1    25.0       -3.0     +0.7    +13.0
    85    Rasho Nesterovic    4376    16.3     1.1     10.1       148      15.3     1.2    13.3       -1.0     +0.1    +3.2
    86    Jamario Moon        4234    13.4     1.4     15.7       144      12.9     0.7    8.2        -0.5     -0.7    -7.5
    87    DeSagana Diop       3811    9.3      2.1     44.7       140      6.9      1.8    46.2       -2.4     -0.3    +1.5
    88    Matt Bonner         3435    16.9     1.1     9.8        134      14.5     1.1    12.4       -2.4     0.0     +2.5
    89    Josh Boone          3437    15.2     4.2     48.8       118      15.3     7.3    100.0      +0.1     +3.1    +51.2
    90    Darko Milicic       4610    17.7     3.6     35.0       115      18.2     5.3    50.0       +0.5     +1.7    +15.0
    91    Jason Williams      3751    17.6     1.8     16.8       112      14       1.6    17.8       -3.6     -0.2    +1.0
    92    Joey Graham         3191    18.5     3.8     34.2       111      13.5     1.6    21.3       -5.0     -2.2    -12.9
    93    Thabo Sefolosha     3755    15.9     2.1     21.2       99       17.9     4.4    46.3       +2.0     +2.3    +25.1
    94    Rodney Carney       3407    19.1     2.5     19.5       84       17.7     0.9    6.8        -1.4     -1.6    -12.8
    [/size]
    
    On average, USG% drops by 1.1%, FTA/36min drops by 0.1, and FTA per 100 FGA goes up 2.1.

    The numbers are similar if I weight it by playoff minutes: USG% drops by 0.9%, FTA/36min drops by 0.1, and FTA per 100 FGA goes up 1.8.

    So, Carl Herrera's point about free throw attempts per field goal attempt stands even for role players.
     
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  6. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
    Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Excellent thread.
     
  7. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Agreed, good thread, good info and it looks like the observational data, is trumped by the truth.

    Well done Durv and CH.

    DD
     
  8. saleem

    saleem Contributing Member

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    Having the ability to get to the line is rewarded most of the time in the playoffs. Over relying on jump shooting leads to defeat. That's why Wade won over Dirk.
     
  9. mic

    mic Contributing Member

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    Nice work. Mythbusters in full effect.
     
  10. LCII

    LCII Contributing Member

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    Morey probably had this all figured out before he acquired all these FT shooting studs...he wouldn't be so shortsighted as to consider regular season only.

    Now we have Lowry, Martin, and Yao who draw fouls and shoot FTs at a prolific rate.
     
  11. xclavex

    xclavex New Member

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    Playoffs? The way the Rockets are playing (especially since the trade) we aren't likely to even make an 8th seed. One year ago we were championship contenders at the start of the year (on paper, before the injuries), now we are lottery bound.
     
  12. bullardfan

    bullardfan なんでやねん

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    i think we only had a few weak FT shooters if any on our b2b championship teams. even chucky brown shot okay i think. next season will be interesting.
     
  13. Ariza4MVP

    Ariza4MVP Member

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    he is talkin about in general...at some point kevin martin will go to the playoffs in a rockets jersey.
     
  14. ASidd_1990

    ASidd_1990 Rookie

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    <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qwq7BYOnDrM&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qwq7BYOnDrM&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
     
  15. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    I guess this is the only year we'll be able to get into the playoffs? Damn. I may as well hang up my Rockets cap as there's no future in being a Rockets fan. :(
     
  16. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    Thanks for the more focused data.
     
  17. Yetti

    Yetti Contributing Member

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    Thank you Carl Herrera for a very factual analysis, the result is quite surprising! Thanks also posting a Pure Basketball Question, it's about time
    we went back to this level on our Forum.Y
     
  18. PeppermintCandy

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    I'm one of the posters who brought up the "refs swallowing their whistle" issue in relation to Martin and Lowry. That was before I actually looked at the numbers.

    As for Lowry, looking at the stats on "low usage" players uploaded by durvasa, his numbers do take a dip. His FTA per 36 minutes drops by 1.1 (from 5.5 to 4.4) and his FTA/FGA drops by 7 percentage points (from 56.7% to 49.4%). A decrease, certainly, but not enough to prove anything, especially a bias on the part of the refs.

    Anyway, thanks Carl Herrera and durvasa for the interesting statistics.
     
  19. melvimbe

    melvimbe Member

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    That still leaves the issue of whether the refs will let a team consistently get more ft attempts then the opposition, whether playoffs or regular season, even if it is earned. I would think the tendency would be to try and balance out fouls, because guys like Cuban are going to complain if you don't. Are the refs going to allow harder fouls against us, while raising the standard on us, calling ticky tacks fouls just to balance it out?

    I would imagine it's hard to get data, and even so, the sample size would be probably be too small to be conclusive. If several high ft players move to the same team, does the total team ft go up? What's the standard deviation for total team ft between the different teams? Thinking out loud, that last bit is probably answerable with data, and would probably put this to rest.
     
  20. Htown57

    Htown57 Member

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    Awesome, thanks. This answered the question a lot of people were asking in my "we're going to get fouled a lot" thread.

    I think the subjective impression of the refs "swallowing their whistles" may be based on the increased intensity of playoff games. Perhaps with increased intensity comes a slightly increased threshold for what is a foul, a threshold which is still met at an equal or greater rate to the regular season because of, again, the increased intensity.

    Another plausible explanation is that teams are less likely to fold in end-game situations in the playoffs. Down by 8, 50 seconds left, game 60 of the season, 2nd night of a back to back, you probably take your 2 posessions and go home. In the playoffs, same game situation, you're fighting for your life, so you're more likely to make the opposition take some foul shots and see if you can make a miracle run. That might explain some of the increase in fouls called.
     

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