[ClutchFans] BimaThug: Houston's Future: Dollars and Sense

Thanks clutch and bima.. great article!!

 

Bima, a tremendously true asset to Clutchfans. High respect for that poster. Thanks to both.

 

In Summary Les will be paying luxury tax for at best a team that MAY contend to get to conference more likely second round.

 

I actually had a few ideas brewed and ready to post on this subject...

Indiana possible draft day trade target?

Pacers 2010-11 team salary: $65,705,857
Non-guaranteed contracts: Hansbrough, Price, McRoberts
Team salary without McRoberts: $64,820,737

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837

2010-11 Rookie Scale:

* Above rookie scale figures are base amounts. Contracts can be negotiated for 20% more or less. To agree on 20% more is the norm?

Houston's own 2010 + 2012 1stR picks + NY's 2011 & 2012 picks → Indiana's 1stR high (5th to 8th) lottery pick?

 

Bima,

I know you're not a fortune teller but what are your overall thoughts on what D. Morey's and Les' plans for the offseason? Do you expect Morey to pull another trade or do you see him going after a team that needs financial relief like SAC?

 

A playmaking wing was mentioned by Gersson Rosas as an area of general need...

Battier + Taylor (via min except) + Jeffries + Rockets own 2011 1stR pick → Prince (expiring, left knee & attitude issues)
- Rockets reduce team salary by $3,946,411
Brooks, (Lowry)
Martin, Budinger
Prince, Ariza
(Scola), Hill, Andersen
(draft), Yao
- Scloa & Lowry unsigned
- Hayes's option declined
- 2010 draft pick salary not included
Rockets team salary: $53,723,268
Projected salary space: $11,276,732 (This isn't cap space)


Battier + Taylor (via min except) + Andersen + one of NY's picks + rights to Eliyahu → Ginobili (S&T $8M?) + rights to Splitter
- Rockets reduce team salary by $2,710,371

Rockets own 2010 1stR pick + one of NY's picks + Jeffries (salary dump) → whichever team has cap space or TE
(Lowry), Brooks
Martin, Budinger
Ariza, Ginobili
(Scola), Hill
(Splitter), Yao
- Scola, Lowry, & Splitter unsigned
- Splitter not bound by rookie scale anymore
- Hayes's option declined
Rockets team salary: $48,075,478
Projected salary space: $16,924522 (This isn't cap space)


Taylor + Andersen + one of NY's picks → Ronnie Brewer (S&T, RFA)
(Lowry), Brooks
Martin, Brewer
Ariza, Budinger
(Scola), Hill, Jeffries
(draft), Yao
- Scola & Lowry unsigned
- Battier packaged in a trade to move up draft
- Hayes's option declined

 

Man...as far as pro basketball matters go, I suck at economics. I'm the kind of fan who prefers to enjoy the game as it's played on the court--you know, worrying about stuff like shot selection and player rotation instead of things like "luxury tax" or "MLE" (mid-level exception). One reason I prefer college sports video games (as opposed to pro) is because I don't have to worry about that. It sure does make me respect Daryl Morey--hell, just about ANY general manager--that much more, though.

That said, I gotta thank BimaThug for putting up this VERY detailed article on the Rockets' financial concerns for next year, for those that DO keep track of stuff like that. Keep up the great work, Bima.

 

Just finished reading it. A great job, very professional, certainly worthy of any of the major sports websites, ESPN, etc.. Marvelous job, Bima, and I hope it's not the last from you. I always love to read columns by the top level members of the BBS linked from the front page. It enhances the quality of the site and leads the reader straight to the GARM via the comments link. I hope you do more of this, Clutch, since you're so busy that you can't write as many of your own excellent columns as you used to. Kudos!

 

Great read, but there is one important part of the puzzle missing.

Whenever we talk about Les going over the Lux tax next year and taking a hit, one must consider the enormous amount of money the team is making this year with Yao's contract covered by insurance and part of Tmac's as well.

The team will probably more than make up the Lux tax hit this year in net profit, making it a wash.

DD

 

True, but money is money. If you can retain a profit and still provide a solid team without going nuts, I know I would like to keep that money if it was mine. As much as I love Les as an owner, this is still a business.

With that said, I agree though that he is probably more apt to spend it for those and Bima's reasons.

 

Agreed, I want to keep up with it without putting in the leg work. That was some substansive researching and analysis in the article for apathetic guys (and gals) like me.

 

Brilliant!

 

You have to be in the luxury tax to compete in the modern day NBA, unless you have a superstar on a rookie contract.

Denver, LA, Boston, Orlando and Cleveland all have 3-4 huge contracts taking up at least 80% of their cap space. And role players don't come as cheaply as they used to.

 

Wow, I hope we are not going to lose Hayes. I also I think we can not afford losing Scola and Lowry if there is not a big trade next year. Battier is likely to go since we have Martin, I think so.

 

Those teams, maybe with the exception of orlando, probably sell out their arenas every night also. if you're going to spend the money, you better make sure you are getting a return in wins that equals a return on butts in seats.

 

Great Article. Very thorough. Thanks alot.

 

Great writeup, BimaThug.

I think it's going to end up being a relatively quiet offseason, much to the disappointment of a lot of members here. The odds of Bosh singling out Houston and only Houston just seem so small (on top of that the situation with Scola makes it even harder as you mentioned), and the only MLE pickup I was considering was Ginobili, but we're full at the 2/3 after the trade.

I think we'll end up just re-signing Scola and Lowry, probably Hayes too, and pick in our slot. If anything, maybe move up a few slots via trade in the draft like you said.

Next season we can really evaluate where Yao is at, and then take action at the trade deadline if need be. Battier + Jeffries expirings, Brooks, and the picks will be attractive. If Sergio Llull is anything like he's being touted around here, that might be adequate time to bring him over and have him ready for the '11-'12 season.

I don't really see the sense in doing anything too drastic before we gauge Yao next season. Obviously you go for Bosh if he's available, but I wouldn't commit a long-term MLE contract to anyone or trade those NY picks away before we know for sure that Yao is still our franchise player. Next year will be a defining year in his career.

 

Great article.

Basically the Rockets under Morey have proven themselves to be absolute masters of the art of taking a limited pool of assets, figuring out what other people value those assets at, and then arbitraging themselves into more favorable positions (see the draft pick musical chairs game from a few years ago, or the Walsh-pantsing eg.) As a result they've always been able to build themselves into an incredibly flexible spot in relation to where they could have been.

The only thing that slightly scares me is that despite our wizardry and optimizing our position to make acquisitions, eventually we are going to have to make one and chart a way forward - rather than just continually position/position/position which may become an obsession unto itself. Hopefully we don't sacrifice too much for the sake of flexibility.

 

I also worry about that as well. I think the health of Yao Ming is the key for us to contend. Based on what we've read, it looks like Houston wants a PF that can play for stretches when Yao is out. Whether he is out during the game or out for injury. Basically what LA has in Pau for Andrew B.