Since the season looks like a wash at this point. Is there any merit to the notion that the Rockets should develop some players and increase their trade value. In general I could see two guys Scola and Brooks having huge statiscal leaps if Adelman places a ton of emphasis on both. Scola could be a 20-10 player with more touches in the post. Brooks is a flatout scorer and we saw that in the playoffs when he dropped 30 point games. He could average 20 ppg easily in an uptempo pace. Now the other two smaller names to watchout are Lowry and Landry, both of whom are ripe for inflated numbers and should be traded when the value is high. If the Rockets can manage to win a decent number of wins such as 40-45 and these players pad their stats then you are going to see Morey get a lot phone calls especially considering how cheap some of these contracts are right now. Scola is the one that would be hard not to trade. He is going on 30 and will be a coveted free agent next summer. Big men always get the attention and money in free agency. He could be looking at 8 to 10 mil a season and that would end any hope of getting a top flight free agent like Bosh or Johnson.
Scola fans are in for a rude awakening if they are expecting 20-10 type average, with good efficiency.
albeit baseball and basketball are very different, but that is the general theory of moneyball.. trade your good players to a contender for their good young cheap players. take those young'ns and develop them into good players while competing during that window, and if it fails, trade them for more good young cheap prospects. in our system i think that landry and brooks would fit the trade bait description.
You don't have to pad stats to sell high. You can't really pad stats in baseball, anyway, which is where the philosophy was developed.
For the older players like Scola and Battier you can't really develop them, just increase their numbers and package them for young players or draft picks. However, Brooks, Landry, and Lowry can be still further developed into really good tradeable assets and that is what I am advocating here. Understand Moneyball never overpays its own players with lengthy deal once the initial valued contract is up. So with Morey you are going to see very little resigning players especially those in their 30s. I think Scola will become overpaid once his contract is up next summer. Remember Luis is turn 30 next year and Morey has already proven he won't keep guys beyond their prime such as Artest. That's why the move to Ariza makes much more sense, a 24 year old all round versatile wingman who will only be 29 when his contract is up. I could see Morey setting an invisible age cap on this team. 24 to 29 would be the ideal age for players we are going to target. Battier will be another guy we are going to move who was offered to back to Memphis with Brooks for the #2 pick and Gay by Morey.
You don't develop just to trade. You develop so they produce at a high level for you. If they're able to do so, you keep them. You might, however, pad their stats and trade.
If I remember right, this is Scola's last season under contract so even if he did pad his stats upward, unless a team is desperate or stupid, most teams interested in him will probably wait until 2010 offseason. As for develop and trade, it all depends on what we are trading for. I am not a fan of needless big name trades or draft picks unless they can come in and help where there is a position of need. Trading either Brooks or Scola (unless Landry or Dorsey suddenly blossom into starter material) would just create another need to fill rather then solve anything.
i'm pretty sure that's part of the reosning behinds some picks, like dorsey, greene, etc...yeah you hope they can find a spot with you, but you're also improving them enough to be some kind of trade bait....just look at dorsey, he was 2nd round value and he could eventually become valued as high as Ben Wallace once was, so even if he doesn't fit we could trade him and get better than a second round talent..
My whole idea is that we are no longer a contender and "win now" doesn't apply to us next year. So its best that we develop young player next year even the rookies should get quality minutes so we can have more assets to trade near the deadline. It would also beneficial to moving T-Mac if we package some young talent with him for another star player. Sorry but your GM is a Moneyball guy who believes, instead of paying a big fat contract to his existing players, he can go out and find a better replacement in the draft or via free agency. See Ron Artest and Von Wafer. All these young guys Morey is buying up in the drafts are only there for one reason: Trade Bait. Come on just last year Morey pulled the rabbit out his hat by trading Donte Greene for Artest and now flipped him for a 24 year old Ariza. So we essentially took Greene and traded him for Ariza. This is exactly what he has in mind with Taylor and Buddinger who had an excellent summer league. Look Moneyball is about constantly finding value in underpaid overachieving players. You shuffle and trade until you find what you are looking for (Ariza, Battier) then you keep him 5 years on the cheap and trade again once the player reaches his 30s. Also when I speak of develop and trade, the deal is for a real good player in return. This is called sweetening the deal for the other team. Lets say Scola is a 20-10 guy next year then it would be more a plausible trade to package 2-3 young players and Scola for a proven star player.
This whole moneyball thing is so overblown when it is applied to Morey. The guy is into stats. Thats it, it has nothing to do with money ball or anything like that. Everyone keeps saying that Moneyball is how Morey is running this team and that ultimately is going to be the downfall because it limits our spending. Now when you look at real life you will see the Rox are nothing like the A's. First of all we have two max money players. Granted they are hurt next year but its not like Morey came in and immediately rid the team of high salary players. Next, the Rox have spent money like crazy this offseason buying picks. They gave up 6 million on draft night and close to 2 more in the Anderson trade. Moneyball by its nature is designed to save the owner money while putting a competitive product on the floor/field. Morey is spending money like mad, it just doesnt seem like it because everyone compares it to the Blazers and their billionaire owner. As for the future anything Morey does right now keeps in mind that the Rox want to be able to offer a max level deal to a superstar next offseason. Again, that doesnt follow the moneyball principles. Yes he has been able to find some great role players at great value, but other then that this team was built around max paid superstars, it just didnt pan out due to injuries.
If he gets the minutes, I think YOU will be the one surprised. Dude wasn't the MVP in the Olympics qualifier for nothing...
The key word is "Better". Obviously if you can a better and cheaper replacement why wouldn't you do it? If you can't then you pay the price, which is why we have 2 max players in the roster.
Probably. Consistency would be the determining factor if Scola can be a great player. The problem is that He is the only low post threat the team has as of today. There is no choice but to believe that he can produce those numbers.
I hear all these people saying Moneyball is about finding the Shane Battier's of the world. Guys who are fundamentally sound, and do the little things that don't show up in the box score. But really, the Moneyball system that Billy Beane developed with the Oakland A's is the complete opposite of that. Those A's were famous for NOT being fundamentally sound, and NOT doing the little things. They rejected the very notion of 'intangibles', and baseball purists couldn't believe it. They didn't bunt, they didn't steal, they didn't move runners over or take the extra base. They struck out more than any other team. And they didn't play great defense. All Billy Beane cared about was OPS. They basically had a bunch of guys who did nothing but hit for power, draw walks, and strike out. Like baseball versions of Von Wafer.
Its doesn't make sense to trade your good players at 30. Remember, Dream's best years were not until after he was 30.
