2016 General Election Polling Thread

Yeah. This thread is at least one week to early. Lets wait until a thorough polling sample has been done.

 

This is just like early season power ranking, it is just for fun at this time.

 

Trump's RNC Was Least Effective Party Convention in Three Decades, Poll Finds

Ouch. So Trumph's own convention was a hit piece on him?

 

Trump is the best hit piece on himself.

 

Either candidate suck, this term election would bad enough to let people in other countries (North Korea, China etc) to say they may have a better system to select their leaders.

 

Why are you grouping China with NK? For the last thirty years, Chinese leaders have proven over and over again they are extremely competent at the top level.

 

NK has a very bad system, China has a bad or ok system in US people eyes. To me they are not in the same group, but lots of Americans will put two together, but I think China is doing ok right now.

 

This is weird. GOP convention bounce of +2 to 6 points (unless early data was wrong) and -15 points on more likely to vote for Trump?

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Support for President: Gary Johnson 6%, Harambe 5%, Jill Stein 2%</p>&mdash; PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) <a href="https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/759579980925927424">July 31, 2016</a></blockquote>
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We must do what is necessary to ensure that Harambe Johnson-Stein receives the necessary 15% to be included in the debates.

 

Why? They will only dilute and distract from Trumph's nuttiness by being there. The libertarians are bonkers.

 

Hillary is getting a significant bounce from the Democratic National Convention!

Secretary Clinton takes a 9 point post-convention lead!



Post-convention poll: Clinton retakes lead over Trump

Washington (CNN)

Hillary Clinton emerges from her party's convention in Philadelphia with a restored lead over Donald Trump, having earned a 7-point convention bounce, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll.

In a two-way head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 43%, and in a four-way matchup including third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton leads 45% to 37% with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%.

Besides improving her standing against Trump, Clinton's convention appears to have boosted the share of Americans who think her policies will move the country in the right direction (from 43% before either convention to 48% now), while Trump's right direction number held roughly steady following the back-to-back political gatherings in Cleveland and Philadelphia.

Further, a majority of Clinton's backers now say their vote is more to show support for her than to oppose Trump, a sharp shift since early May. Back then, 48% said their vote was one of support for the former secretary of state, 58% say so now. While Trump also improved his numbers on that metric, his voters are more evenly divided, with 47% saying they're backing him to show support and 50% saying it's more to oppose Clinton.

More of Clinton's backers also say they are certain to support her come November: 44% of registered voters are Clinton supporters who say their mind is made up, while 36% say they are solidly behind Trump. Only about 16% of voters say their minds could change in the 99 days left between now and Election Day.

Clinton's convention appears to have helped her reverse the damage done to perceptions of her honesty during the GOP convention, but she did not improve those numbers compared with where they stood before either convention. Overall, 34% say they consider Clinton honest and trustworthy, up from 30% after the GOP convention but exactly where that figure was in a poll conducted before either convention happened.

Clinton made more progress on several other measures, however, with 50% now saying she's in touch with the problems of ordinary Americans, and 48% that she will unite the country and not divide it. She gained three points -- a change inside the margin of sampling error for this poll -- compared with a poll conducted before the Republican convention on having the right experience, running for the good of the country rather than personal gain and as someone you would be proud to have as president.

On each of those measures, Clinton fares better than Trump, except when voters are asked about their honesty. Thirty-five percent say they see Trump as honest and trustworthy, just about even with the former secretary of state.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/01/politics/trump-vs-clinton-presidential-polls-election-2016/index.html

 

rimrocker's guide to presidential polling:

1. Don't pay attention to national polling until mid-August/September.
2. Only pay attention to national polling if one candidate is carrying a consistent 4-5% lead.
3. State polls matter more than national ones. A small but meaningful lead in one critical state can be washed out by a major deficit in another giving a skewed view of the national race, which ultimately depends on electoral votes.
4. Don't pay attention to state polls unless there are more than two within a week or so and they all show the same trend.
5. Watch where the candidates are campaigning by mid-September. If Hillary is in NC and Texas and NV, she's feeling good but if she is in Ohio and PA, it could be tight. Same with Trump: If he is in Michigan and Iowa and Colorado, he's feeling good but if he is in FL and WV, he's in trouble.
6. Don't trust polls.

 

Is this the official post-convention 2016 election thread? Do we have one? Can someone start one?

 

True, but this is pretty telling

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gallup: this GOP convention is first *ever* where more say they are now less likely to vote for the party's nominee. <a href="https://t.co/1RVDEGKy76">pic.twitter.com/1RVDEGKy76</a></p>&mdash; Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) <a href="https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/760141319499112448">August 1, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Agree. Polls are meaningless until much closer to the election.

 

trump in a landslide, zionist are putting out propaganda on the polling