The auto-play video is 3 minutes of fluff saying the Lakers won't make the playoffs in the West. Pretty enlightening.
Here ya go. Sorry if the formatting is weird. Copied and pasted from my phone. With the calendar turning to August and the NBA's offseason hitting its quiet period, it's time to take a first look at how the league will shake out after a busy summer. Starting Thursday with the Eastern Conference and wrapping up today with the West, I'll take a look at the tiers in each conference based on where teams stand entering the 2015-16 season. Tier 1: Championship contenders Golden State Warriors With an effective age (weighted by minutes) of 27.4, the Warriors were the youngest champions since the 1980-81 Boston Celtics. And Golden State returns 92 percent of last season's minutes -- a figure that increases to nearly 98 percent for just the playoff minutes. The moral of the story is that the Warriors figure to remain elite for years to come and have an excellent chance of defending their title. San Antonio Spurs Projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus show San Antonio nearly even with Golden State next season after adding LaMarcus Aldridge to the core of what was already the NBA's best team after the All-Star break last season. The Spurs have more questions to answer about a rebuilt bench, Tony Parker's health and Tim Duncan's ability to anchor their defense at age 39 (he'll turn 40 during the 2016 playoffs). But their upside is the best team in the NBA. Tier 2: Championship hopefuls Houston Rockets The addition of Ty Lawson pushes the Rockets into this tier. Though Houston was one of the last two teams standing in the Western Conference last season, it was harder to argue the Rockets were one of the two best teams. They ranked fifth in point differential during the regular season and were, amazingly, sixth in net rating adjusted for opposition in the playoffs. But Houston was battered by injuries all season, Dwight Howard was a different player when healthy in the playoffs and Lawson filled their biggest need: a secondary creator to join MVP runner-up James Harden. Los Angeles Clippers DeAndre Jordan's return keeps the Clippers in the hunt for the West title. Instead of taking a huge step back with the loss of their defensive anchor, the Clippers managed to upgrade this summer by strengthening their depth with newcomers Paul Pierce, Josh Smith and Lance Stephenson. If Doc Rivers can find the right mix of this new talent and Pierce manages to hold off Father Time, the Clippers could move into the top tier. Oklahoma City Thunder After injuries spoiled the Thunder's 2014-15 campaign, they should be back near the top of the Western Conference this season. The question is whether Oklahoma City's supporting cast is strong enough to support a healthy group of stars. The Thunder are short on two-way role players, with newcomers Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters failing to qualify because of their shortcomings in defense and efficient scoring, respectively. The older Grizzlies could fall out of championship contention this season, while the younger Pelicans should take another step forward. Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports Tier 3: Likely playoff teams Memphis Grizzlies In terms of point differential, the Grizzlies (plus-3.2 points per game) were closer to seventh in the West than fourth. While Memphis has made solid offseason additions to its bench in forward Matt Barnes and center Brandan Wright, the Grizzlies can't compete with the arms race elsewhere in the conference. At some point, age may become a factor, as the team is projected to be the league's second-oldest (weighted by expected minutes). New Orleans Pelicans It took Oklahoma City's injuries and a win on the final night of the regular season to lift the Pelicans to a playoff berth in 2014-15. New Orleans should have a slightly easier time of things this year. Better health, improvement from budding superstar Anthony Davis and a faster pace under new head coach Alvin Gentry figure to put the Pelicans comfortably in the postseason. Tier 4: Playoff hopefuls Dallas Mavericks After missing out on Jordan, the Mavericks have put together a team that can compete for a playoff berth but will probably fall short. There are simply too many question marks about Dallas' age and health, particularly on the wing, where both Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons are coming off surgeries and unlikely to be 100 percent at the start of the season. Phoenix Suns Having added Tyson Chandler as a defensive anchor to athletic Eric Bledsoe and dogged P.J. Tucker, the Suns project to be a much-improved defensive team. Surprisingly, the question is whether they can score. While trade addition Brandon Knight barely played for the team, Phoenix ranked 28th in offensive rating after trading point guards Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, outscoring just the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers following the All-Star break. Utah Jazz I went long on the Jazz's projections Thursday after the team announced that point guard Dante Exum suffered a torn ACL in his left knee while playing for the Australian National Team. Exum's loss might push Utah out of the ranks of likely playoff teams, but the Jazz still has a realistic shot at a postseason run without him. Even after losing four starters this offseason, Portland doesn't project to slide into the cellar of the Western Conference. Cameron Browne/NBAE/Getty Images Tier 5: Playoff long shots Portland Trail Blazers Because it typically takes 45-plus wins to make the playoffs in the West, teams in this tier don't have the same chance of making the postseason as their counterparts in the East. Still, it might be surprising to see the Blazers here after they lost four of their five starters during the offseason. The lone holdover, All-Star point guard Damian Lillard, is a worthy centerpiece. And Portland added underrated contributors this offseason. Free agents Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis both rate as above-average players based on the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus, as does third-year shooting guard C.J. McCollum. As a result, the Blazers should be competitive rather than sinking to the West's cellar. Sacramento Kings After their offseason shopping spree, there's a reasonable chance the Kings win 35 games for the first time since 2007-08. (They haven't even reached 30 wins in that span.) Sacramento should be improved defensively, with newcomers Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos joining star DeMarcus Cousins in the frontcourt. But it's hard to see the Kings succeeding offensively with such limited shooting in the frontcourt and at point guard, where newly signed Rajon Rondo is unlikely to outperform incumbent Darren Collison. Tier 6: Likely lottery teams Denver Nuggets The Nuggets have some interesting pieces, particularly if Danilo Gallinari plays like he did after the All-Star break, when he averaged 18.6 points with a .602 true shooting percentage. And Mike Malone should be an upgrade on the sidelines from predecessor Brian Shaw. Still, trading Lawson and committing to rookie Emmanuel Mudiay at point guard means Denver will be hard-pressed to improve on last season's 30 wins. Los Angeles Lakers Given their inability to sign a top free agent, the Lakers made smart offseason moves to target value players like Brandon Bass and Lou Williams and trade for center Roy Hibbert on an expiring contract that preserves their cap space for the summer of 2016. In the short term, however, the offseason has left L.A. not much more competitive than a year ago -- particularly if No. 2 pick D'Angelo Russell struggles with efficiency as he did during summer league. Minnesota Timberwolves The pieces are in place for a competitive team in Minnesota built around back-to-back No. 1 overall picks Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, but we're still a couple years away from seeing that happen. Consider this Timberwolves team a little like the 2008-09 Thunder, who started the season 3-29 despite having both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and who finished 23-59.
I feel the same way. The 40 year old players have never been championship material. They're just holding on because they don't want to retire yet.
At this point it seems like a really good breakdown. Almost identical to my current predictions. I don't think the spurs really fall off, i expect LA to take the place of Duncan from 3-4 years ago and Duncan can fill in for center until they pickup a decent backup C.
Hard to say. At some point, Duncan, Ginobli and Parker will not be good anymore. People have been saying that for years and they just keep on going, but it is bound to happen at some point? What if Ginobli is hurt for most of this upcoming season? What if time and age finally catch up with Duncan (which I think might have a higher chance of that happening if he spends most of his time at Center)? What if Parker loses his quickness that has made him effective for all of these years? Sure, they signed Aldridge. They still have Leonard and Danny Green. That is a pretty solid core for them to build around for the post-Duncan years. But that, by itself, isn't enough to be championship contenders either. The Spurs could be really good. They could also be first round playoff exit if some of these other players slow down or get injured. If I was forced to put money on it, I would probably bet on them being overhyped this offseason and getting eliminated in either the first or maybe second round. But that could also be because I just really don't like the Spurs.
I agree the old Big 3 of SA is on the decline, but with the additions of LA and Leonard progressing very nicely and arguably the best coach in the NBA its too soon for me to cross them off the list, if they did not add LA this offseason I would have put them in the same category as us and LAC.
Somehow the spurs still have a fairly deep team: Parker / Mills Green / Ginobili Leonard / ? LMA / West Duncan / Diaw They do have some question marks, however. Besides Duncan, they don't have any rim protection, and they are very thin at wing outside of Green/Leonard/Ginobili. Parker and Mills' ability to stay healthy is also a question. The only real questions the Rockets have is does Lawson come back the same player he was before the 2nd DWI, and can our PFs stay healthy? Otherwise we are the deeper and more talented team.
"Besides Duncan, they don't have any rim protection?" You are going to count on a 39/40 year old Duncan to be your rim protector? (Before anyone says anything, yes I know that we did that with Mutombo. And yes, I know that Duncan got that block on Harden at the end of one regular season game...) The Spurs basically have 4 power forwards. Plus that one rookie center that they drafted, the one that they signed from overseas and Matt Bonner. I wouldn't consider any of them as strong rim protectors and I would consider them good but not great rebounders. Is that enough to derail their season? No, not at all. GSW just won a title playing 6'7 Draymond Green at Center. But it is definitely a question mark and a possible concern for them going into this season.
Good breakdown. I would still consider the Grizzlies a top tier team. Although they didn't make any major improvements this offseason, they're still a team that gives teams like the Rockets, Clippers, and Spurs fits.
Some of that core is aging though. Randolph is 34, Carter is 38, Udrih is 33, Allen is 33, and Barnes is 35. Hell, even Gasol is now 30. Their window is rapidly closing.
I'm pretty sure this is not correct. Someone double check my numbers. Both GSW and LAC had better records after Feb 15th. And the Rockets were only one game behind SAS's 2nd half record.
I have no idea, but the Spurs did go on a tear after the break. Didn't they have a really long winning streak leading into that Pelicans game?
