I don't think judging by age when they reach the bigs is a reasonable metric. Springer isn't a can't miss prospect. He's a very high ceiling player but a lot of reports say his plate approach and swing could use some work. He doesn't need to burn through the minor leagues, even though we all would love for him to.
Springer's age is not uncommon for A+. He's in his 1st full season. It is incredibly common for college players. And we are talking about a guy who every expert says is incredibly raw for a college player. You'd be right if we were talking about a guy who was drafted out of HS and 22 in A+ ball, but we aren't. How many prospects arrive within 2 years of being drafted? Not many. Springer's ETA is 2014. If he arrives before then, it would be surprising.
That will be when he makes his first opening day start... but if he's hitting well next year (and he's a better option than Schaffer), he'll get a callup.
Age is very much a reasonable metric... guys at baseball prospectus have proven that the younger a player is on draft day, history has shown that they've gone on to have more productive careers than their older counterparts. The Astros may have already shot themselves in the foot by drafting a "raw" 22 year old... 22 year olds, if they have real talent, aren't expected to need much seasoning.
Schafer blows, but there is also Austin Wates who happens to be tearing up CC right now. ETA is not for opening day, but is generally a players expected rookie season.
That's what I am saying. The whole point of drafting a soon to be 22 year old is because he is refined and ready to scale the ladder quickly. Jason Castro for instance, not exactly a can't miss guy, was in AA before he turned 22. Started out AAA as a 22 year old and turned 23 during the season at AAA. You would be hard pressed to find many examples of guys turning 23 before ever playing a game at AA and then becoming anything of note.
All good points that I agree with... I also think that the new regime is going to be a little less patient with guys that weren't scouted/developed/drafted or signed by this bunch. Springer wasn't a Luhnow pick, but Fernando Martinez was his signing. I have a feeling that the entire drafting philosophy is going to change... no more signability picks. Even before they've had their first draft, would have liked to see what this regime could have done by blowing up the team LAST year.
How has being rushed worked out for Castro so far? And to be clear, Castro was a defensive player first with an OPS over .900, showing great plate discipline and at a position of extreme need. Hunter Pence, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jeff Kent, Ben Zobrist, Jason Bay, Gaby Sanchez, Andre Eithier, Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Kevin Youkilis, Michael Young... Is that enough all-stars for you (and mind you, I'm only thinking about position players)? Most people in AA at 20-22 were international FA's, signed out of HS or JUCO, or juniors that signed early and got a good amount of time in proball the year they were drafted.
Stories of the Day A lot of 1-run losses today. A relief pitcher took the loss in every game today, from Lexington to Houston. Telvin Nash goes deep again. Why not? Paul Clemens with a solid start, but did he get the win against Memphis? Delino DeShields keeps up his hot start. I still have hope that he'll turn into a good, solid MLB player down the line. Recap A bullpen failure for OKC led to a 4-3 loss to Memphis. They outhit the opposition 10-6 but couldn't beat them in the column that mattered. Paul Clemens had a nice start, going 6 innings, allowing only 1 run on 3 hits, walking 2 and striking out 5. He added an RBI single in the 6th. Landon Powell went 2-3 and put OKC on the board first with a 2nd-inning RBI single. Unfortunately, the bullpen couldn't hold the lead in the 7th. Juan Abreu was the first man in. After getting Pete Kozma to line out, he walked Zack Cox. Then Abreu got wild; one wild pitch and one passed ball later, Cox was at 3rd. After that, he proceeded to walk Jermaine Curtis. Fernando Abad came in and allowed them both to score. J.B. Shuck went 2-4; his RBI groundout in the 8th tied the game at 3, but Angel Sanchez committed a costly error in the bottom half that allowed the winning run to score for Memphis and made Enerio Del Rosario the loser. A Nolan Arenado home run off of Kevin Chapman in the bottom of the 8th broke a 1-1 tie between Corpus Christi and Tulsa and proved to be the decisive moment in a 2-1 defeat for the Hooks. Jake Goebbert's 4th-inning solo homer in the 4th tied the game at 1 and was the only offense today. Jake Buchanan allowed 1 run on 4 hits in 6 innings, walking 1 and striking out 3. Chapman took the loss, with the Arenado homer the only run he surrendered in 2 innings of relief. He gave up 2 hits, didn't walk a batter, and struck out 3. Jonathan Villar's 0-4 day drops him to .171/.261/.195 with only 1 RBI on the season. I don't think he should be worried about Jio Mier just yet, considering we're only 2 weeks into the season, but the SS situation could be worth monitoring soon. Telvin Nash goes deep once again! His 6th homer of the year gives him sole possession of the Minor League lead. It was a solo shot in the 5th that tied the game at 5. Unfortunately, that was the last run for Lancaster, as the bullpen allowed 2 to Lake Elsinore in the 7th, resulting in a 7-5 loss. The Jethawks jumped out to a 4-1 lead after 2 innings, thanks to 2 RBI singles from Rafael Valenzuela and Erik Castro, and a 2-run single from Ben Orloff. George Springer went 1-4 with a walk and is now hitting .275. Wes Musick went 5 innings, allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 6 hits (3-run homer). He walked 1 and struck out 7. Andrew Robinson took the loss after allowing both runs in the 7th. He struck out Michael Wing on a wild pitch that resulted in Rico Noel scoring the tying run and Wing going all the way to 2nd base. Wing would score the go-ahead run on a Jonathan Meyer error. Lowlight belonged to Robinson. Dishonorable mention goes to Jio Mier, who went 0-5 with 2 strikeouts. Here's hoping that Jonathan Meyer goes on a tear at the plate, because I flat out can't stand that tandem of Andrew Simunic and Jordan Kreke at 3rd. Lexington and Kannapolis were in tune with each other, scoring 3 in the 5th and 1 in the 6th. It would remain that way until the 11th when..... Kannapolis scored what would prove to be the deciding run on a Matt Duffy error. Shame. Kyle Hallock rebounded somewhat from a disastrous first start, going 5 innings, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits, walking 2 and striking out 3. Delino DeShields, who was the DH today, hit his first homer of the season, a 2-run shot in the 5th. It was his only hit of the game in 3 at-bats, but he also drew 2 walks. He's now hitting a respectable .295, with 1 homer and 5 RBIs, and now has an 8:12 BB:K ratio. Duffy and Jimmy Howick chipped in 1 RBI apiece. Carlos Quevedo pitched well in relief of Hallock today. In 4 innings, he allowed 1 run on 2 hits and struck out 4. Jason Chowning's control was a bit off in his 2 innings, walking 3 and striking out 1 despite only allowing 1 hit, and he got the loss after Duffy's gaffe resulted in an unearned run.
So far, Springer hasn't set the world on fire in Lancaster, but I'd say he's off to a good start. Not great, just good. If he keeps up and/or improves upon his current production (say, about .280-.285, with 8-12 homers, 40-50 RBI, with a decent K:BB ratio) into June, then I think a promotion to Corpus could happen. Honestly, I don't think he's going to need too much time in the minors. From what I've gathered, he looks like he'll be more than an adequate defender with his plus athleticism. His approach at the plate is solid, although he needs to shorten his swing somewhat, and he'll have his fair share of strikeouts. IMO, these aren't like glaring or even fatal weaknesses. They can be rectified during the season, and I think he's smart enough to make those adjustments and skilled enough to adapt to them. Best case scenario I see with Springer... is exactly how Nick sees it. I was about to post something else, but realized you weren't talking about how old a player was on his major league debut, just how old he was on draft day. And Springer was a pretty old junior, to be honest.
This is like the people that brings up how you can get a Pro Bowl qb in the 3rd round or later and always bring up Tom Brady and Tony Romo. What about the other 200 qb's that never make it. Of course you can go through and pick out a couple of late bloomers as the exceptions to the rule. The exceptions are what helps make the rule. The fact that each of those immediately comes to mind as late bloomers. I could name 150 guys that were out of High A before they hit 23. You bring up ten guys that made it on that track, and I can easily find 1,000 that did not.
Wow, you are so clueless, it is beyond my comprehension. Those aren't a couple of guys. Go find me 1,000 college juniors that were drafted, made an all-star team and were in AA before 23. Heck, find me 50. I didn't go pick one guy. I gave you 7 guys who were all-stars last season. Why don't we talk about the thousands of players who make it to AA by 22 that don't make it? We could do that as well if you'd like.
Stories of the Night Mike Foltynewicz turns in his 2nd straight dominant start. Domingo Santana made his return to the Lancaster lineup. How did he fare? Jarred Cosart unable to make his scheduled start today. Recap OKC was held to 5 hits as they were blanked 2-0 by Memphis. Jimmy Paredes went 2-3; he came in hitting .206. Hopefully it's the start of something for him, as he has been really slow out of the gate. Aneury Rodriguez took the loss but had a decent outing, allowing 1 run on 5 hits in 5 innings, walking 3 and striking out 5. Jarred Cosart was today's scheduled starter for Corpus in the middle game of their series with Tulsa. However, his blisters don't appear to be fully healed yet. He has not pitched in 12 days. So, Henry Villar was deputized as today's spot starter, and was promptly drilled for 3 runs in the 1st. Those would be the only runs he surrendered in 3 innings of work, allowing 3 hits, walking 1, and striking out 1. As for the Hooks, they were mauled 7-1. Jose Martinez hit his 2nd homer of the season, a solo shot in the 6th inning for the only Hooks run. Roster moves... <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>A couple @<a href="https://twitter.com/cchooks">cchooks</a> roster moves today: RHP Josh Zeid to DL (retro to April 14), RHP Adalberto Flores reassigned from Oklahoma City.</p>— Greg Rajan (@GregRajan) <a href="https://twitter.com/GregRajan/status/191926623694622720" data-datetime="2012-04-16T16:30:47+00:00">April 16, 2012</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> Lancaster jumped out to a 3-1 lead against High Desert after the 2nd. Unfortunately, those 3 runs would be the only ones they would score tonight. The Mavericks would tie the game in the top of 7th, and it would remain that way until the 13th, when the Jethawks bullpen caved in. They were quickly put down in the bottom half and finished 7-3 in 13. Erik Castro went deep for the 3rd time this season, a 2-run shot scoring Telvin Nash. Jio Mier added an RBI double later in the inning. Domingo Santana made his return to the lineup tonight, his first action since Opening Day. Batting 7th and playing right field... it wasn't a memorable return for him, as he went 0-5 with a hat trick. Still searching for that first hit as a Jethawk. Jonathan Meyer went 3-5 with a triple in the 13th, but he was left there. You've probably heard me say this, but I hope Meyer catches fire at the plate soon and heads on his merry way to Corpus, because a 3B platoon of Andrew Simunic and Jordan Kreke is just not fun to watch at all. Nash was 2-5 with a walk and 2 Ks. George Springer went 0-6 with 2 Ks and is now hitting .239. I heard the Lancaster announcer make note of the free-swinging ways of this offense quite a few times during the broadcast. Pitching-wise, David Martinez had a bare-minimum quality start (pitching to 2 hitters in the 7th without getting them out, but he got knocked out of the game himself), allowing 7 hits (2-run homer), walking 1, and striking out 3. All 3 runs he gave up came from Mavs 3B Mario Martinez, the #8 hitter, who put them on the board first with a single in the 2nd and took him deep to tie the game in the 7th. Then the Lancaster Lefties came in and handcuffed High Desert for 6 innings. Alex Sogard came in first and went 3, allowed 2 hits, didn't walk anyone, and struck out 5. Pat Urckfitz also went 3 and allowed 2 hits. He walked 1 and fanned 3. Great showing from them. Sadly, Brian Streilein had an epic fail in the 13th. He allowed the first 2 guys (John Hicks and Mickey Wiswall) he faced to reach on singles; on the second single, Wiswall advanced to 2nd on the throw from Telvin Nash. So it's 2nd and 3rd with no one out. He got Julio Morban to ground out, then intentionally walked Mario Martinez to load the bases. Streilein then proceeds to walk James Jones, resulting in Hicks scoring the go-ahead run. Jorge De Leon entered and got the first man he faced to pop out. But then... Brad Miller sent everyone home with a double. And made Brian Streilein the loser. Mike Foltynewicz was stellar once again for Lexington as they took the opener of their series with Greenville by a score of 6-2, as he and Scott Zuloaga combined for a 4-hitter. The Legends staked Folty to a 5-1 lead and he wiped out the Drive's hitters for 7 innings, allowing 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits, walking 2, and striking out 6. He also induced 13 groundouts and didn't record a flyout. Zach Johnson went 2-4 with a double and 2 RBI. His RBI single in the 1st put Lexington on the board 1st, and his double in the 3rd also resulted in an RBI. Justin Gominsky, Matt Duffy, and Jimmy Howick each drove in a run. Delino DeShields went 0-3 and committed 2 errors, but he also drew 2 walks and is now 6-6 in stolen base attempts this season. He now owns a 10:13 BB:K ratio. Last season, if DeShields went 0-3 or worse, it was usually accompanied with at least a strikeout or two. I really like the fact that he's willing to take some more pitches instead of hacking away. In fact, looking at his numbers from last year, he was indeed willing to take some walks (9.7% BB rate, which was above the league average of 8.2%), and hiding behind his .220 average was a .271 BABIP, which was well below the .314 league average. His line drive rate (13.7%) lagged behind the average (16.4%), his ground ball rate (43%) was right in line with the league average (42.8%), flyball rate (25.4%) was below average by a bit (29.2%), but his infield flyball rate (10.1%) was substantially higher than the average Sally Leaguer (7.2%). His strikeout rate was 21.8%, which was higher than average, which was 20%. Yes, he struggled in his 1st full season, but it also seems like he didn't have the best luck. Delino DeShields will be playing much of this season as a 19-year-old, so it's still way premature to declare him a bust. I believe he can sustain his current level of play into the middle or the end of July, which is when I think he'll be ready to go to Lancaster, where he'll finish out this season. Of course, he'll have to refine his fielding, but it seems like keeping track of errors in the lower levels of the minors seems pretty... subjective, in terms of what constitutes an error and who exactly should be charged with an error. I got all of those numbers from http://minorleaguecentral.com/. It's a real comprehensive site that's updated quite almost daily throughout the season, with the basic stats, advanced metrics, tendencies, and even park factors. As for Foltynewicz, this start, and the morning start against Hagerstown, is pretty much what was expected of him in his second go-round in the Sally League. He improved to 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA after today. In 15 2/3 innings, he's allowed 14 hits (1 homer), 8 runs (3 earned), walked 5, and struck out 18. He has a 2:1 groundout-to-flyout ratio, and opponents are hitting .226 off of him. He and Tropeano have been the undisputed stars of this rotation in the early portions of the season.
Hat trick unfortunately meaning three strikeouts for Santana in this case. Foltynewicz is starting to come around. Regardless of if he is repeating the level, that is still encouraging. Seaton never showed any flashes of anything this good.
None of those guys you mentioned were selected in the top 11 picks of the first round, which is usually held to a different standard. Let's look at last year's all-star rosters... Alex Avila - in the majors at 22 Adrian Gonzalez - in the majors at 22 Robinson Cano - in the majors at 22 Adrian Beltre - in the majors at 19 Asdrubal Cabrera - in the majors at 21 Jose Bautista - 20th round pick, skipped from A+ ball at 22 to majors at 23 Curtis Granderson - 3rd round pick, A+ at 22, AA and MLB at 23 Josh Hamilton - out of baseball in his early 20's due to alcoholism David Ortiz - in the majors at 21 Jered Weaver - 11th overall pick, A+ and AA at 22, AAA and MLB at 23 Brian McCann - in the majors at 21 Prince Fielder - in the majors at 21 Rickie Weeks - 2nd pick of draft out of college, reached majors at 20, less than a year at A and AA Scott Rolen - in majors at 21 Tulowitzki - 7th pick out of college, A+ at 20, AA and MLB at 21 I am tired of typing at this point. I don't completely disagree with you that a college player is on a different track. The front office would hope though that picking a college player would mean he is more ready to master those lower levels and zoom his way up the ranks like Tulowitzki. You don't draft a college guy, hoping to put him on the same plan of three or four years in the minors like a high school guy. You hope that a college guy drafted in the top 11 picks mirrors Rickie Weeks and Troy Tulowitzki and is in AAA and ready to go by the end of his second year in the minors. Tulowitzki had the added bonus of being on year younger than Springer basically. If you pick Springer with the 11th pick, and he finishes up the next season as a 23 year old in High ball, I just think the Astros will be a bit disappointed. Right now, he appears to need to go back to Rookie Ball is he doing so poorly.
Good analysis on Deshields. Didn't realize his BABIP was so low last year (which for those unclear about that stat, its one that should be relatively consistent among hitters no matter how good/bad they are... so if his was abnormally low, its more a sign of bad luck than bad hitting). No way anybody should be declaring him a bust... a guy who was a converted outfielder, learning a new position, and more a raw athlete than simply a baseball player. But that's why they took the risk on him as such a young high schooler in the draft... those guys DO eventually pan out. And they pan out at a better clip than the older college type player (just like the one they drafted last year).
I think what the all-star roster backup, is that you are better off drafting/signing young players, in particular with position players. I'd love to see Springer mash and get to AA this year, I just think it is way too early to be worrying about the jump. Good to see Folty getting off to a great start. His K numbers are way up compared to last year.
Was there a change in hitting instructors from last season to this? When you look at the difference in DeSheilds and Altuve alone, someone or something has gone right to get these guys to start looking at more pitches.
They are both a year older. DDJ actually showed very good patience last year. Altuve also posted decent BB rates in the minors. I think you are seeing maturity more than anything.
