Real Plus-Minus

Things are going really well

 

is this the 2nd sarcasm thread? if so then this team is doing great! i love the effort and the new "instilling confidence" approach to the game. jim glad they'll be confident now

 

I'm surprised Ariza isn't ahead of Jones, but rest of numbers make sense.

 

DMo would be 409th.

 

okafor, vasquez, and mudiay are among the last. weird. okafor and mudiay is killing it.

 

Jae Crowder? Marvin Williams??? I want to audit this sh.....

 

DMo last season he was 148, which is bad, but month or so he was the only Bigman ohh sorry Tarik Black, and Dorsey were on the floor too..

only better were
3 James Harden
78 Dwight Howard
90 Trevor Ariza
144 Jason Terry

 

it hurts

 

Why? They've been very good. They are playing the same role Shane played for us back in the day.

 

I definitely don't think he'll be this low...

But for people thinking he will come in and save our season is getting a bit ridiculous.

I think I read somewhere in one of these threads that a combo of D-Mo and Dwight would be the best frontcourt in the league... Like are you serious!? I like the kid but he's not even on Lamarcus Aldridge level yet, if you were just going after Lamarcus Aldridge this past offseason.

Some people are just clueless.

 

You don't think DMo is the worst player in the league?

 

Doesn't surprise me one bit that Capela tops our team.

 

Rpm with only less than 25% of the season is basically worthless.

 

Call me old fashioned, but real plus minus is a bed time story. All that is important is Ws and Ls.

 

I guess I need to do research to understand this statistic. Those guys are bit players doing well for a few weeks.

 

Clearly some mistake? How are there 3 NBA players worse than Lawson????

 

Remember that it's a small sample size - those players may regress to the mean. Also, RPM weights defense higher than raw BPM, and both of those guys are decent defenders.

 

You clearly haven't seen Trashquez play.

Not to mention that DRPM on it's own has pretty big flaws. But sadly it's one of the best public available stats to measure defence for perimeter players. (for centers and combo bigs we have pretty accurate rim protection stats).

 

I would refer you to this Kirk Goldsberry article which is spot on:

http://grantland.com/features/department-of-defense/

If you ever play basketball, there's three broad aspects to defense. 1) making your man miss 2) taking away his shot altogether 3) helping on switches and creating turnovers away from your man (maybe that's 4 things)

RPM misses those subtleties. I work a lot with statistics, and in my field there are broadly two kinds of people - lumpers and splitters. Lumpers try to incorporate many things into one catch-all metric to make it simple for people to understand and apply - but you lose a lot of information that way. Splitters try to break everything down into the smallest meaningful units - you get a lot of granularity but you lose the big picture, literally the forest for the trees. My view with my work is to redefine the lumping by splitting and then re-lumping - in other words, you break down to capture the granularity but then you put it into something which is practical with minimal loss of information. DRPM, in my mind, is the extreme of lumping - it doesn't tell you where a person excels in defense or how he excels, just that he seems to excel when corrected for the defensive presence around him. You need to split and re-lump so you can categorize people by their roles - perimter defender, rim protector, etc..., and one key metric which is missing is the spatial element - how well you can take away a shot in addition to how well people shoot when you are guarding them. It still doesn't capture all the little things - how well you switch, how often you defend a pick and roll properly, but it's a key part of defense that needs to be quantified better such that it could be incorporated into a rating of, say, rim protection.