1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[Article] FiveThirtyEight Playoff Preview

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Visagial, Apr 17, 2015.

Tags:
Page 1 of 2
  1. Visagial

    Visagial Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2002
    Messages:
    1,462
    Likes Received:
    29
    #1 Visagial, Apr 17, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
  2. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2002
    Messages:
    46,550
    Likes Received:
    6,131
    Thanks. 1% seems ridiculously low.

    Vegas has them 14/1
     
    #2 Mr. Clutch, Apr 17, 2015
  3. DreamShook

    DreamShook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    70,813
    Likes Received:
    114,826
    how accurate have these guys been in the past with their NBA predictions?
     
    #3 DreamShook, Apr 17, 2015
  4. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2001
    Messages:
    23,382
    Likes Received:
    33,541
    The percentage chance to win it all... do they explain what that's based on? It seems like it's not math because the Bulls have twice the likelihood to win it all over us. The 3 seed in the weaker east has double the chances of the 2 seed in the stronger west? Yeah, no.
     
    #4 don grahamleone, Apr 17, 2015
  5. Fyreball

    Fyreball Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2009
    Messages:
    14,956
    Likes Received:
    12,238
    1% is comically low. I'd put it somewhere around 10%-15%. 1% should be reserved for the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics of the world. If you get into the playoffs as a 2 seed and Division Champions in one of the hardest conferences in modern sports, you deserve a little more respect than what the national media is giving us.
     
    #5 Fyreball, Apr 17, 2015
  6. RockFanFirst

    RockFanFirst Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    2,067
    Likes Received:
    1,189
    How dare someone bring statistics to this argument! Isn't it easier to just say "other than Harden, they're a bad team".
     
    #6 RockFanFirst, Apr 17, 2015
  7. Hakeemtheking

    Hakeemtheking Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    Messages:
    9,193
    Likes Received:
    6,059
    The only explanation is that it is MUCH easier to come out of the east than the west.
     
    #7 Hakeemtheking, Apr 17, 2015
  8. Pizza_Da_Hut

    Pizza_Da_Hut I put on pants for this?

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2003
    Messages:
    11,323
    Likes Received:
    4,118
    538 loves point differential based stats. Good on them to try and analyze how the playoff will shake up, but truth be told the playoffs are all about match ups.
     
    #8 Pizza_Da_Hut, Apr 17, 2015
  9. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,279
    Likes Received:
    9,629
    1% is a little low but it's close enough. I'd say 3 to 5% chance but I'm a homer. We need the Spurs and Warriors to lose for us to have a realistic chance at getting to the finals imo.
     
    #9 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  10. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Messages:
    7,027
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    I'll take 1%.

    Let harden and co take care of the other 99%.
     
    #10 Mr. Dominant, Apr 17, 2015
  11. Mr. Dominant

    Mr. Dominant Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Messages:
    7,027
    Likes Received:
    3,060
    Honestly, I see the rockets beating the Spurs in a 7 game series.. especially with a non restricted minute Dwight.

    I don't see us winning vs Clippers for some reasons.
     
    #11 Mr. Dominant, Apr 17, 2015
  12. benchmoochie

    benchmoochie Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2003
    Messages:
    5,644
    Likes Received:
    132
    if rockets are 1% then the rest of the field must be very skewed.
     
    #12 benchmoochie, Apr 17, 2015
  13. basketballholic

    basketballholic Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2013
    Messages:
    17,516
    Likes Received:
    4,170
    Just saw this. Interesting. Matches my picks exactly. Basically there's about a 90% chance that one of GSW, SAS, ATL, CLE wins the championship.
     
    #13 basketballholic, Apr 17, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
  14. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,279
    Likes Received:
    9,629
    48% Warriors
    21% Cavs
    12% Spurs
    8% Clippers
    5% Hawks

    Can't say I disagree too much with that
     
    #14 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  15. BigShasta

    BigShasta Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2014
    Messages:
    5,212
    Likes Received:
    4,812

    [​IMG]
     
    #15 BigShasta, Apr 17, 2015
  16. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 8, 2002
    Messages:
    46,550
    Likes Received:
    6,131
    That was assuming no roster moves I think
     
    #16 Mr. Clutch, Apr 17, 2015
  17. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2002
    Messages:
    23,279
    Likes Received:
    9,629
    Yeah I totally disagreed with their preseason estimates. They didn't make sense.
     
    #17 robbie380, Apr 17, 2015
  18. Kwame

    Kwame Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2007
    Messages:
    5,756
    Likes Received:
    333
    You don't know what you're talking about. No place in Las Vegas has the Rockets at 14/1.
     
    #18 Kwame, Apr 17, 2015
  19. roflmcwaffles

    roflmcwaffles Member

    Joined:
    Mar 28, 2006
    Messages:
    2,388
    Likes Received:
    113
    I believe it's based on their 10000 simulations and that alone.
     
    #19 roflmcwaffles, Apr 17, 2015
  20. don grahamleone

    don grahamleone Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2001
    Messages:
    23,382
    Likes Received:
    33,541
    #20 don grahamleone, Apr 17, 2015
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 1 of 2

Share This Page

Toggle Width
Style
ClutchFans Original

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now