That Sinking Feeling: Rockets Points Per Quarter and +/- Per Quarter

2.2+0.9+.0.9-1.0 =+.3.0

Still a net positive

The Rockets are 41-5 when leading at the half. arent they like 16-4 in games decided by 3 points or less? (not sure exact record but something like that) -- All this means is that the team probably when leading is leading comfortably in the fourth and has its 2nd/3rd string in that doesnt really spend a lot of time on court together and thus the offense becomes stagnant.

this doesnt even being to touch upon the face the second focal point of the offense being out for more than half the year as well.

 

harden plays the entire 1st quarter. Then rests during portions of the other quarters. He sometimes doesn't even play the 4th because the game is already won.

 

All I know is we have one of the most clutch players in Harden.

For your reading pleasure:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...istically-clutch-nba-player-at-every-position

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The games definitely FEEL like that, although we are consistently winning.

We build a lead and then play "not to lose" in the second half. Usually we almost give it all away and then are saved by a massive effort in the last 5 minutes.

 

Howard's presence should decrease that pressure to some extent. The lack of another consistent playmaker/ shooter in the backcourt with Harden is the main
problem here. The team needs to improve their defense and rebounding, if they can continue to move the ball and handle pressure defense better, we will be in good shape.

 

I wish McHale could stagger Harden's minutes better to where he isn't sitting out the first four to five minutes of the 4th quarter. Would rather have him sit the last three minutes of the third and the first three minutes of the fourth (would also give him the in between break).

 

How do other top teams rank? I could see some bad teams having higher 4 quarter production of they are always losing or playing close games in the fourth vs teams that have leads and take their foot off the gas a bit.

 

You have to factor in the fact that some of 4thQ time is garbage time.

 

This just about sums it up. Our MVP is out the 2nd and 4th quarter for large portions therefore our plus/minus are impacted negatively.

/thread

 

Like many have said, the 4th quarter breakdowns are probably only relevant in "close" games. In blowouts or comfortable leads, it's pretty normal for the trailing team to win the 4th.

 

If we are in the lead like tonight, Harden starts milking the clock around 3-4 min to go. Part of the reason we don't have higher scoring numbers in the 4th.

 

Probably more to do with games we are way ahead and sit Harden, and the other team closes the gap but still loses.

DD

 

I imagine good teams all have similar stats. Either that or we play fewer close games than top teams.

 

The reason he plays all the 1st Q and all the 3rd Q + the end of the 2nd and 4th Qs is so he can take advantage of getting the other team in the bonus. I also think that is why Dwight is playing the start of all the Qs so as to increase the foul count. It is pretty darn smart if you ask me. Dwight helps get them in the bonus and Harden takes advantage of it.

 

rockets pt differntial is tied for 3rd with dallas, ahead of memphsi and okc. thats bad. that means there's a lot of close games

 

It does. It also means we're winning a ton of close games. And there are several ways to interpret this.

1. We are simply clutch. Harden has the clutch gene. Everyone takes their play up a notch. McHale is a coaching genius. Whatever cliche you wish to use.

2. We are lucky. This is the pure analytics view of things. That we've been extraordinarily lucky in close games this year and we should not be as good.

3. It's a style thing. We milk the clock with Harden and that prevent us from really running away in games because we're settling for bad shots. It makes the score closer, but it leads to more wins over time because you lower opponent chance of comeback.

I personally don't believe in clutchness. So I would say a combination of 2 and 3 leading to this result.