Part of the plight of being a Rocket's fan is that even with the 2-3rd best record in the West and 3-4th best in the league, fans have a tendency to anticipate an early round exit due to history and the lack of 'convincing' wins. The past couple decades are a rotating door of talent with no finals appearances to show for (reminds me of old Orlando Teams). Nonetheless, I think the Rockets are coming into stride in just the right ways leading up to the playoffs and compensating for where their greatest weaknesses lie. Here's what I think are the Rocket's four factors to success in the playoffs. 1. Dwight's 'ultimate sacrifice' means less post play, more deferring, and more PnR. http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2a5a3q/dwight_howard_and_his_refusal_to_pick_and_roll/ http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24415847/why-the-rockets-should-stop-posting-up-dwight-howard http://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/2fkgyn/dwight_howard_the_man_in_the_middle_a_look_at/ While these are older articles, the statistics hold true. Dwight as a Rocket has produced an abysmal 0.75 ppp. That's one of the lowest for big men posting, much lower than the league average ppp, and even lower than our guards shooting mid-range jumpers (generally the most inefficient shot). Compare this to his astounding PnR PPP stats: Year PnR PPP Rank TOV% 09/10 1.49 1 8.2% 10/11 1.43 1 7% 11/12 1.36 2 3.9% 12/13 1.29 9 10.4% 13/14 1.31 3 5.7% The past couple of return games for Dwight have looked great. If he can stick to his real bread and butter, it will cut down his TOV% and generously increase the offensive efficiency of the Rockets. 2. Ariza Stays Hot (and another player catches fire from 3pt Land?). https://twitter.com/clutchfans/status/581668086735978496 http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24840935/rockets-choose-to-live-by-the-three-as-they-shoot-historic-numbers http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=256612 Clutch posted Ariza's blistering stats in the last ten games. This is the Ariza we've been waiting for, the one we saw in Washington, and the one to make us completely forget Parsons even on the offensive end. We know he's capable of it: The Rockets live and die by the three, shooting it at a historic volumes. For the season, they're averaging just around 33% which is under the league average. If Ariza (and one other?) are able to elevate that number, watch for the Rockets to take off offensively. 3. Control Turnovers http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=9629194#post9629194 As highlighted in a previous thread, the biggest statistical difference between the Rockets and other top teams is their Assist and TO numbers. While hopefully better shooting and Dwight PnR will increase the more-efficient assisted shot, there hasn't been signs of turnovers decreasing. The Rockets rank bottom three in all TO statistical categories usually with teams like the 76ers and the Kings. Dwight coming back won't really help as he is a TO machine. Hopefully they will find some way to keep these down. 4. Harden, Defense, Bench play, and McHale stay the course I don't think the MVP, a top 3 defense, and the Headband of Brothers will be an issue here. Harden has shown more maturity this season as a tenured superstar. The defense is consistent, focused all year long on stopping the three and funneling the defense for low % shots. The Headband of Brothers has also been consistent, invigorating the Rockets whenever they need it. The real x-factor here is McHale. I think he's been doing a good job as of late but members of the board are all to familiar with his criticisms. If his coaching stays at a proficient level during the playoffs, the Rockets should be good. Oh and it goes without saying 5. (Stay Healthy Rockets)
More PnR with Dwight will inevitably improve our TOs, because there won't be force feeding it to him in the low post (in which both the entry pass and Dwight's ball-handling in the post both cause TOs). Last night was a great example of the damage Dwight and the team could do when he played to his strengths... I think we had a season high in assists, and Dwight had 18 pts in only 20 min.
Also, your 4th point is like five points in one, haha. One thing I think could be a problem that you don't mention, though, is FT shooting. With how close so many of our games are, I can't help but feel like that could catch up to us... Even though it hasn't really yet.
Yeah that's true . I thought about expanding each point but I think that clump is stuff the Rockets have shown they can do consistently, whereas the other points are relatively new changes.
There may be a perfect "mechanical/mathematical" formula for the Rocket's playoff's success, or may be not. This we know, the field of eight in the West is stacked, absolutely the most talented field in recent memory. Number one is a mecca of talent, they are loaded. They will be tough to unseat. After that, the West is up in the air as anyone can beat anyone on a given night. The keys as always are intensity, talent, execution, mechanics, smarts, grit, and luck. The luck factor is huge. Who gets "healthy" at the right time? Who gets "hot" at the right time? Who gets the "calls?" Who gets the loose balls? The critical rebounds? Makes the "winning" timely shots? The Rockets have talent, experience, size, speed, and skill. They have a deep bench. They may be getting healthy and somewhat rested at the right time. I think PG play is their glaring weakness that can be exploited by all of their opponents. If they can somehow "cover" that gap, they have a chance.
Friggin' brilliant. How did you come up with such a genius game plan? Our defensive switching lately has become a thing of beauty. It's unbelievably fluid.
1) Refs give us the same calls as regular season 2) Dwight more pnr, less post ups 3) mchale makes defensive adjustments and late game execution 4) injuries
No Lin - check Harden plays like Harden- check D12 play like last year-check Wing defense-check DMo does't play like a 5 footer- check McHale does't draw a duck during timeout-check Championship !
Harden has to show up. We have to hit our 3', and we have to defend & REBOUND. Rebounding is huge given extra possessions that usually lead to kaos. When Dwight goes out we will greatly suffer
The key to a long playoff run is to avoid the Warriors for the first 2 rounds and hope that our chemistry has fully developed by the time we play them. Aside from the fact that we laid an egg in our 4 games against them, the Warriors are just playing at an incredible level. I won't be surprised if they get close to 67 to 69 wins. I like our chances, even without Bev, but we must get everybody healthy soon. We have a deep and talented team, lead by a true superstar. If lightning strikes, we could get hot very quickly, thereby having a realistic chance to win it all.
