It take a great player or 2 to win a NBA Championship. Or it takes a group of very good players who come together and make a run (the Detroit formula) But by and large it takes a Magic, Jordan or Hakeem to get it done. How are the Rockets positioned? Let's say our 2 best players are: Yao/Artest- at this point in time Yao is a very good player- 20/10 center Artest is OK, not consistently a 25 pt scorer and not the lock down defender he used to be. And he will probably not be a Rocket next season. TMac is indefinately not counting. Now compare the competition: Boston- Garnett, Pierce- great players Rondo, Allen- pretty good Lakers- Kobe- great player Gasol- pretty good San Antonio- Duncan, Parker- great players Gino- pretty good (when healthy) Cleveland- LeBron- great player Utah- Williams- great player when healthy Boozer- pretty good New Orleans- Paul- great player West- pretty good Nuggets- Melo, Billups pretty good Orlando- Howard- great player Kobe and Lebron have that Jordan/Dream quality- they could go all the way with the right supporting cast. And of course a good supporting cast with a good chemistry plays a big part of being a title contender. I don't rank the Rockets very high in that group of teams and no where near the top 2. It seems to me we have a pretty good player in Yao who at times flashes greatness and an injured TMac who once flashed greatness and likely the rest is just supporting cast waiting for either Yao to elevate to Jordan/Dream status (which is not going to happen) or like Morey has said we get another great player along side Yao. I just don't see a truly great player in the range of Kobe, Lebron, Chris Paul, Derron Williams on our horizon and TMac is a big question and Yao may not be the kind of player who can take over the NBA game and dominate the league. We are so close to being Yao and a supporting cast that we might as well admit it. If that is who we are then we must add a really great player to the roster next year. How do we do it? I don't think we will. It is a very very very small window to win an NBA title. Even with Hakeem and Jordan it takes alot of work to build the right team around the all time greats. Bird, Magic, Jordan, Shaq, Kobe, all of them were super stars- alot like Lebron... but it takes either one more great player and a great supporting cast or it takes alot more good players and real good chemistry. I really am frustrated very much that the Yao/TMac window of opportunity is closing fast IMHO. Frustrated because I love the team and had such great expectation that we would win a championship with this combination. How long before we are where Boston is today? or the Lakers? That is how I view these moves... at what rate are we getting closer to a championship. I don't want to wait another 20 yrs.
rhester -- I agree entirely. I don't think we're close. I'm not thrilled with that. Great players drive teams to win rings....I don't think we have any. I think we have some very good players. Not great. I can't recall a championship post-oriented team (where their best player played down low) who won their championship(s) with a postman that wasn't better than Yao in the past 20 years or so. That's not meant to be a knock on Yao...he's a really good player. I just think you're going to have to find someone GREAT if you want to win a ring. And outside of a hope and a prayer for picking up a Wade or a Lebron in 2010, I have no idea how that's going to come about.
I think you're right. As much as I like Yao, I'm not convinced he's good enough to lead the Rockets to a ring.
I think the Rockets feel that the Yao-Mcgrady core ran its course, and that it was time to prioritize the future. They were trying to get a big name player, but that fell through. I've heard the proposed trade was Caron Butler for Ron Artest. That would have been nice, but I don't think Butler-Yao is enough to get us a championship anyways. The Rockets will have more assets to acquire a big name player in the offseason than they did a year ago when they got Artest. We'll see how they do.
Important point...I really like Yao Ming a lot! He's sooo easy to root for. Just a good guy. I just don't think he can be THE guy on a team that wins a title. I don't think my wife can be that person either, but I love her nonetheless. Actually I love her a lot more because she can't, so that's probably a bad example.
You'd think that if TMac and Yao are that good, they'd be able to get out of the first round eventually. But this year, it looks like the Rockets will squeak into the playoffs and need a bit of fortune to make it to the second round. Realistically speaking: Maybe an 75% of making the playoffs. Maybe a 25% chance of advancing to the second round. That gives us about a 19% chance of getting to the second round ... those odds aren't very good.
I know it is hard on fans, or maybe it is hard on me but I think most pro teams wait too long most of the time to admit the handwriting on the wall... no pro team likes facing that ugly word- 'rebuild' Just think of the Texans under Capers/Casserly/David Carr It's hard to jerk the rug out from under your 'plan' so you ride it until it's way past time to act for the future. Take the Astros- Yes we made it to the World Series and I will never forget that NLCS. But look at our farm system and our pitching staff... anyone think we are nearer now to another World Series? It is problematic but Pro Franchises have to focus on selling tickets, sponsors etc. Often times it takes one very good draft choice. In my mind that is the winning formula more times than not- Earl Campbell - Houston Oilers (sorry we didn't go to a Super Bowl but he was one draft choice that made the team a contender) Hakeem- One of those once in a lifetime players like Jordan, Duncan, Kobe, Bird, Magic. What do those BB players all have in common? Rings Yao is not in that very elite class, but he is very good and it is going to be a real challenge to get an elite player next to Yao before Yao is 33 yrs. old and slower and even more injury prone. The optimism I have is that I still see some rare expertise in Morey and risk taking in Alexander to hope something magical happens to us by next season. There is always next season for all but one team (the champion) in any pro sport.
I see Yao more in the Kareem, not Akeem mode. Kareem couldn't do it by himself ... he needed Magic. Dream is one of the few who could take the whole team on his back to a championship, once he got his head screwed on right. Yao just doesn't have the disposition to do that, as likeable as he his. Now if someone would get him mad all the time somehow, maybe we could see that ... but, without TMac now, I think our championship aspirations are over. It looks like we'll be looking for that great player in 2010 now too, unless TMac returns full strength.
the irony of this is, even though the t-mac yao era has probably closed, we are closer to winning a championship than in years past.
Just something I would like to add. Doc Rivers < Rick Adelman Phil Jackson > Rick Adelman Greg Popavic > Rick Adelman Mike Brown < Rick Adelman Jerry Sloan, Rick Adelman = Push Byron Scott < Rick Adelman George Karl < Rick Adelman Stan van Gundy, please....... I like the guy running the ship and feel like he's pulled alot more out of his players than most people expected. Now, I'm not saying we are going to win the title just because of RA, but having a coach of his stature will definitley help us propel passed a tougher opponet. It's a brutal month, we should have a really good idea of how we are going to look in the playoffs after these next 10-15 games. are we going to win a title? maybe, maybe no. Can we? I believe.
Well according to this logic (and I'm not arguing against it), we'd have to steal one of those 'great' players on the list. ...Unless on the small chance that Yao takes his game to the next level. He always seems like he tries his best to fit in, rather than take over. Now is the time to do both. Bosh seems like the most attainable guy in the near future. Maybe we can do an updated version of the twin towers...wishful thinking I guess.
^ Seriously, you're comparing Yao to Kareem? Anyway, I think the rockets' reluctance to move Mcgrady or Yao will prove to be what hurts their future championship hopes. I'm sure in years past they were offered some interesting packages for both players but were reluctant to pull the trigger. ONLY superstars should be considered untouchable and if either of these guys were superstars they would have been out of the 1st round by now. Even KG got out of the 1st round with the only other good players, Cassell and Sprewell, being past their primes at ~34.
i think we will past the 2nd round this year...seroiusly we are better off this year than we ever have been.....minus tmac...we gain Artest, an experience landry, scola, and brookes...barry > novak/jackson last year in 3 pt shooting...and of course, VON not a cookie not a cracker WAFER! I like our chances, not saying we will win a championship but there is still somethign to be excited about and I always root for the rockets to go all the way if we are in the playoffs, i never go in saying i'll just be happy to get past the 1st round...and i hope the players dont think that either...
There are no guarantees...so to me, I just want to be in the mix...and then let the chips fall where they may. I think the Rockets are in the mix THIS season. Yao is good enough, he just needs players that defer to him a lot more often (Exit Alston).... Don't panic.......don't worry, be happy. GO ROCKETS !! DD
Rhester, I agree 100%. This is why I'd like to see them let Yao go at the end of his contract. He and Tmac are both very good players, but we need to find someone "great" if we want to win the championship and build around them. I like Yao and he's one of the best centers in the NBA, but is that really saying much? There really aren't many good centers in the NBA, so being called "one of the best" centers in the league isn't really all that great of a compliment right now. Bye Tmac, Bye Yao, lets find someone great, let's take a gamble and at least try.
I think you are out of your mind. THIS team without Tmac and Rafer into the 2nd round? I like your optimism, but I still want some of whatever you are smoking.
Just watch over the next month, when we are in a close game in the 4th qtr and everyone is standing around looking at each other - then tell me we are closer to winning a championship. Tmac may not be a "great" player but the one gift he had was being able to take over when it mattered.
I think the issue with Yao is that he tries his best every single night. I know, i know that sounds like a crazy think to gripe about and a quality that you want in your best players but it's a major difference between him and the superstars of this league. Yao will give you a 20/10 effort every night, whether he amasses those stats or surpasses them is more dependant on how he is defended or how much energy he has than anything he can personally control. Guys like Kobe and Lebron can "step up" when needed because, honestly, they're coasting most games. They are that good. We've seen it this season. Kobe and Lebron decided before hand that they were going to have huge nights against NY and they went out and did it.
Not really. If you think about it, almost EVERY question that concerned the Rockets in 2004 has been addressed in some form or fashion. The problem is that our best player in that time span has become a 23-million-making non-entity. Issue #1: Power-forward. Enter Scola and Landry. I would say, problem completely solved. Issue #2: PG play. Enter and exit Rafer. It remains to be seen how good Lowry and Brooks will be (and it IS in that order btw, Lowry is over a year younger than Brooks), but barring getting a top-3 pick I can't see us addressing this spot in a better fashion. Teams that draft franchise PG's generally never let them loose until they are old and no longer worth their dime. The exceptions so far have been Steve Nash and Chauncey Billups, but honestly Billups doesn't have many years left at this level of play, I'd give him till fall 2010 before he becomes a liability to Denver. Issue #3: Balance in the scoring. This is easily the best-addressed issue, done first through the coaching change and now through our hash-up of personnel to fit the kind of style that would maximize Yao's ability to create mismatches and make opponents pay for the double team. The big problem with moving in that kind of a direction though is: will we be able to maintain the defensive intensity that has defined our team for the past half-decade? Let's all hope that the first half of this season was simply an aberration due to injuries.
