With the recent development, I'm trying to see what the Rockets can do now with Ron's departure and Yao's health problem. First a look at the salaries. Will be on the books Battier: 7.3 mil 2010 1st round pick(2~3 mil?) Most likely will be on the books Yao: 17.7 mil (Most likely pick up his player option unless he REALLY wants to do the Rockets a favor) Landry: 3 mil (Team option) Brooks: 2 mil (Team option) Lowry: 2.9 mil (Qualifying offer) Possibly going to be on the books Scola: 6.7 mil (Cap hold until he's resigned or renounced) Dorsey: 1 mil (Non-guaranteed contract) Taylor (?) Budinger(?) Crunching the numbers. I think it's unlikely that Yao opts out. So unless one or more of Landry/Brooks/Lowry become crap, the Rockets figure to have around a cap figure of roughly $36 million. Using this year's cap of $58 mil as a measuring stick, that would leave $22 million to spend. Which would indeed be enough to offer the max to the Lebron/Wade/Bosh of the worlds. However, this assumes that the Rockets will let Scola go for free in the next offseason. It also assumes we sign no one this year for more than a 1-year deal. While It makes sense to let Scola go(or trade him mid-season for an expiring + pick), Morey has obviously made it clear that he's looking to sign people this year. So, assume the Rockets make one FA splash for the MLE, whether it be Ariza or Gortat or whoever. By next year that contract will be over $6 mil. Or giving us a cap space of ~$16 mil. This is barely enough to offer the top players. But if we decide to rid of Lowry, Brooks, or sell our 1st round pick, then we'd have enough to offer a true max contract. This will also allow us to retain any young player(White/Budinger/Taylor) who might break out this eason. So what do we end up with? Max FA signee(thinking Bosh at this moment) Yao Battier MLE player(thinking Gortat at this moment) Landry 2 of Lowry/Brooks/1st round pick Vet minimums to fill out the rest of the roster. My personal take on the above roster? Playoff caliber, but nothing special. However, it has the advantage of Yao/Battier going off the books for the 2011 season. Personal Conclusion I think the Rockets can do one of two things. One is to do nothing besides get our MLE signing this year. Go for a top player + a bunch of minimum salary players, and try to go on another FA run in 2011 when Yao and Battier come off the books. The other to go for broke next year. That is, trade Battier, who's value should be quite high, for some 3-team trade that nets us a good 1st round pick or a player still on the rookie scale plus expirings. This saves about $4 million next year. We can also try to convince Yao to opt out and take less money, but give him a longer contract(ala Shaq in Miami). This basically defers part of our cap hit until later years, when we figure to be way over the cap anyway. In this scenario, I feel the Rockets will have full ammunition to go after FA while still retaining Scola, and possibly give us a contender immediately. To sum up, I think the Rockets can more or less stand pat, and still come back and compete again pretty soon. And I feel that's what Morey's doing. Wait and see. No need to panic, folks. IN MOREY WE TRUST
If the Rockets are really and truly going after Bosh, they need to trade Scola at the deadline, so as not to lose him completely. Perhaps for an expiring plus a first round pick?
Great thread. This line of thinking is more or less what I was thinking making a thread about. Thanks to Morey's shrewd cap management, we're in good shape to contend very soon. The sky isn't falling. We have great pieces for cheap and WILL be major players in 2010. No state income tax, the Chinese endorsements effect, cheaper land etc, makes Houston very attractive to NBA players (think of how many players own homes in Houston in the off season). It would be unwise to take on big contracts this off season unless it's someone like Bosh or Amare.
I don't think they will let Scola just walk. IF (a big if) they really want to pursue Bosh, then maybe they will trade Scola mid season for an expiring. But that is risky. There is no guarantee Bosh will sign with us even if we have the money. In any case, banking on the 2010 FA market is a big gamble. You can end up getting rid of valuable players and getting nothing really good signed.
Which is one reason why I'm against going for the sweepstakes. This can turn out to be a huge gamble by letting Artest go. Did they not believe Tracy can bring us some valuable assets? Was Curry + Cat the best offer? Or did they believe Yao will miss the whole season or that his career will always be filled with injury? We are so close to be contenders.
ron and scola will be on the wrong side of 30. if you can get something in return for them (like a future pick) then you didnt lose them for nothing. even if you dont land a major free agent in 2010, you've done a good job not committing to aging players on inflated salaries.
Not sure if this is the right place to ask this question, but can the Rockets waive Brian Cook's contract like they did with Luther Head, or is he going to be somehow involved in a trade, and can we do the same with Brent Barry or get him to retire to get that money for a younger player. Thanks for any help.
That's the reason why I went through our salary situation. Getting someone in 2010 is conflicted with trading Scola/Artest. The Rockets are basically at the borderline in terms of cap space. Even an extra few millions could result in not having money for next year. But what's the alternative? Stay in this no-man's land of mediocrity for the next 3 years? Who can we get in a trade that makes us contender given Yao's situation? It is a gamble. But the Rockets don't have any other alternative right now.
Waiving either Cook or Barry won't help us out financially. Les still has to pay them their entire salary. I doubt if Barry will retire.
no - because he will be a "caplock" due to the nature of his contract - the caplock is twice the amount of the expired contract (so 3.35x2 - 6.7million). We'd have to renounce him first - which would mean we don't hold his bird rights anymore - and then couldn't re-sign him...
He reduces our cap space by $6.7 to sign another player, but after we sign that player, then we can resign Scola to a contract paying more than $6.7 and go over the cap. http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q29 http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q30 http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q31
Not sure what you're arguing. As even that site mentions, Scola counts $6.7 million towards the cap next summer, until we renounce him or resign him. Which, of course, puts us in the ~$10 mil range in terms of capspace. Pointless if we want anyone worth breaking the bank for.
If we're rebuilding, we'll trade Battier, because we won't be ready to contend before his contract expires. I think that would be the best option.
Its really risky playing the 2010 game. For starters there will be a lot of appealing teams out there to go up against and some will have enough to sign two big names to contract, you gotta believe if the Knicks get Lebron another big name could end up there to. Also you can't strip the team too much because if you left with a bunch of unproven young guys no big name free agent is going to want to play for a team that then has to try and build around them. Therefore I feel its best to keep what we have, let Mac expire and hope Yao either returns or feels so inclined to not pick up the player option if hes done(is there any rule that prevents him from taking it if he knows he cannot play?).
Here's a dose of reality for you. If you're primary source of talent evaluation is $Ball, you're not "breaking the bank" for anyone. IOW, if there's $10m of cap space, expect a Battier-type $7M contract and several low-ball short-term contracts for 2011 cap flexibility. What I find irritating about the Morey jock-riders is the excitement that's derived from role players. Scola was first offered to the Cavs and Dumb Dan Ferry passed. We got Artest as a low-risk one year rental because the Kings went into blow-up mode. Those are/were the keys beyond Yao and Grady and they had NOTHING to do with $Ball. The true key to rebuilding is getting young quality picks for Grady. They'll have to eat some longer contracts but you evaluate that in terms of "could we do better with the $10m"? So I guess my long-winded cap answer is get something of value for Grady ASAP and build the team as if Yao was never returning. Which they should have done as far back as trading for glue.
why scola and not landry?!?! Scola is legit and yeah he may not get any better but he's consistant and is a hussle guy. Landry is good to but he gets into foul trouble too much for me.
Kyle Lowry will also have a cap hold of about ~$6.1M (not the qualifying offer amount of ~$2.9M), so that further reduces the Rockets' cap room until they officially re-sign Lowry or renounce his rights. For first round rookie scale salary contracts below the league's average salary, the "cap hold" is equal to 300% of the player's previous salary. Lowry will make $2,034,996 next year. While not re-signing Artest would potentially create a decent amount of cap room, just waiting for McGrady's contract to expire won't make the Rockets big time players in free agency next summer. Unless: --Yao opts out and is not re-signed (or is re-signed at a greatly reduced salary); --The Rockets trade Battier for an expiring contract; or --The Rockets trade Scola for an expiring contract or otherwise renounce/S&T him . . . the Rockets probably won't have more than about $8M or so in cap room. If the Rockets are re-building, then more moves are coming.
the thing that bothers me about Morey haters is that they fail to actually listen to him speak and watch the moves he is making. They like to make it out as though he will only sign moneyball contracts and won't ever sign an impact player. They forget that he's stated multiple times how you need impact players in the league. They point to his low cost signings and say "see, this is a moneyball signing". They don't every point out that the team is up against the wall cap-wise and these are the only moves he can make. The reality is, now that all the chips are on the table, we will see what type of gm morey is. He's already worked out the scenarios put forth in the op and has been making strategic moves that allow flexibility as he knows he has a few big moves on the horizon. After years of watching handshake deals and summerleague max contracts, I am way more confident that Morey will make good moves. Hell, I'm betting that CD would've already flipped TMAC for Samuel Dalembert.
