Smart would have been tier 3 last year had he declared. The only thing that has changed in Smart is his hype.
This is my favorite Chad Ford piece every year. I rarely buy in too heavily to a straight-up top-30 or top-60 list/mock draft. Seeing the players broken down into Tiers makes it much easier to understand the players' relative value to NBA teams and to see when a pick might be good value versus an overreach. I'm guessing, if the Rockets stay at #25 and #42, their picks will both come from that Tier 5 list. I'd be a little surprised if the top 40 picks are all from Tiers 1-5. I'm hoping Patrick Young is still on the board at #42. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Rockets try to package #25 with #42 and/or one or more future second rounders to move up a few spots in order to draft a guy listed in Tier 4. Seems like it would be worth some additional assets to get a guy they view as a more substantial piece of the puzzle for this team.
Personally can't really get excited for this draft. I keep wondering if we're even keeping the pick or trading it. If Melo becomes a real possibility but we can't work out a trade with the Knicks before the draft, I can see Morey trading back into the 2nd round to maximize capspace. At where the Rockets are picking? I doubt it means anything. Probably quite accurate near the top though. Parker/Wiggins/Embid going 1-3 seems like almost a lock. No way any of them drops past 4. But once you get to the 20s, it's all in the eye of the beholder. Parsons got a 1st round grade from the Rockets, and didn't make the 1st round tier that year from Ford. But DMo and Morris were drafted where they're slotted.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Joel Embiid's physical with the Cavs didn't go well, and raised plenty of "red flags" ESPN reports he's out of the race for the #1 pick.</p>— NBA Legion (@MySportsLegion) <a href="https://twitter.com/MySportsLegion/statuses/477525828650401792">June 13, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
People are saying that tweet is false and other sources are confirming the opposite. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Cavs put Joel Embiid through rigorous workout. His physical checked out fine, source says.</p>— Sam Amico (@SamAmicoFSO) <a href="https://twitter.com/SamAmicoFSO/statuses/477525160094752768">June 13, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Report: Joel Embiid’s physical with Cavaliers showed ‘enough red flags’ that they won’t take him No. 1 overall <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>.<a href="https://twitter.com/TheRealTRizzo">@TheRealTRizzo</a>: Sources tell me Joel Embiid's physical w/ the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Cavs&src=hash">#Cavs</a> did not go well. Enough red flags that they won't take him #1 overall.</p>— ESPN Cleveland (@ESPNCleveland) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNCleveland/statuses/477441295598628864">June 13, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Several NBA officials told me the Cavs have no desire to unload the top pick and have honed in on Joel Embiid.</p>— Gery Woelfel (@GeryWoelfel) <a href="https://twitter.com/GeryWoelfel/statuses/476821728815886336">June 11, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
No, I mean the tiers. He says a tier 1 player is an all-star lock and a franchise player. How accurate is he on those? (And lower tier predictions etc). Less about draft position and more his tiers.
It sounds like either Izzo and Amico are either giving out misinformation or one source is credible. I don't know who is right or wrong, but teams will play the game to jockey for positioning to make trades or moves. I also wonder if Cleveland wants a safe pick like Parker or a "compromise pick" in Wiggins this draft after other mistakes, but this ironically could be another mistake in itself.
Previous tiers 2007 Spoiler 2008 Spoiler 2009 Spoiler 2010 Spoiler 2011 Spoiler 2012 Spoiler 2013 Spoiler
2011 looked like a weak class coming in but the amount of potential All-Star talent in that class is amazing.
forget 2011... 2009 knocked it out of the park... All-Stars: Griffin/ Harden/ Curry/ Derozan/ Holiday (the first three of them are franchise players!) Great Role Players/ Rotation Guys: Evans/ Jennings/ Gibson/ Teague/ D.Green/ Budinger/ D.Blair/ Hill/ Johnson/ etc. It did very well, specially considering that every sports analyst and draft expert was saying it was going to be a very weak draft.
As well as Spencer Dinwiddie, Kristaps Porzingis, Patrick Young, GR3, KJ McDaniels, Mitch McGary - lots of options at 25 (not counting whoever is bound to slide from top 4 tiers - always happens). Some of these guys will still be available at 42.
