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jayhow92 is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:20 PM   #21
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I really like the idea of seeing if we can get a 1st rd pick out of the Bulls dumping Rip's on us. This would be a very Morey-esque move. Get a vet to potentially backup Harden as well as the Bulls' first round pick (with top-20 protection) as an asset for another move later on while the Bulls get cap relief.
 
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The Cat is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:21 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Kevin Martin preseason: 16.5 PPG 0.547 FG% 0.500 3FG%
James Harden preseason: 13.5 PPG 0.286 FG% 0.250 3FG%
If you're using preseason statistics to try and prove anything, you've already lost your argument.

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Carl Herrera is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:21 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Clutch View Post
Yeah, I hear ya (nice use of that pic) I actually typed his name, but removed it. I had a hard time even thinking Marcus Morris was on this team last year.

Only guys left who had any say in where the Rockets were last year were Parsons and Patterson.
Haha... glad you like the pic. Agree that Morris and Smith were irrelevant to the team's record laast year.

The one thing I keep hearing from analysts and advance-stats types is that what prevents the Rockets from having a .500+ record is their likely heavy reliance on youth. Young guys, even talented ones, have tended to hurt a team's record during the history of the NBA-- in "stats talk," this means they tend to have rather terrible +/- numbers even as they put up points, rebounds, etc.

There is some basis to this observation, but I think the Rockets have a chance to overcome their youth.

First, the Rockets are most likely going to play only 1 rookie, Terrence Jones, at least until the rest of them catch up later in the season. Second, their other projected rotation players have at least some history of success (even if not as full time, 82 game a season, 36+MPG starters) and is not being asked to reach a level that they have not reached before, but rather reach (or at least get close to) their prior level of performance but in a larger role (bigger minutes, over a longer stretch, etc.).

I don't think the team will have too many of those "Keystone Cops" stretches that we have seen out of teams like SAC, CHA, and WAS over the last few seasons with too many clueless young guys on the court at the same time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post

As far as taking on dead money goes, I love the concept, but unfortunately I don't think there will be a whole lot of options. I actually looked at this just the other day.
Good analysis. Another example: Jordan Hill's expiring for Fisher + Dallas 1st rounder.

The thing is, it is always hard to see where this kind of "salary dump" moves will be coming from at the beginning of the season. At this point, teams are still figuring out questions like who may or may not have a chance at rotation minutes, whether they are contending for a playoff spot or giving up on the season, who is going to be a team cancer, etc. Also, they have had all summer to figure out what to do with all of the guys they right now know they want to dump. There aren't too many perfect fits-- i.e. tax paying teams with assets that we want-- but things can show up later. I mean, even a non-tax paying team may have reasons to want to dump a salary, no? Take the Clippers, don't you see Donald Sterling giving up a 1st round pick to rid himself of Odom if he doesn't get in shape and perform later in the season?




One more thing: I wonder whether the Rockets might use their cap room, expiring contracts and other assets (including 2 Knicks 2nd rounders) to make a "Marcus Camby"-type pick up-- i.e. a veteran on an expiring contract who can help now but won't hurt their cap situation in the summer and can in fact be traded for something valuable in a S&T if need be. In Bill Simmons' Harden podcast, Simmons and professional sports gambler Bob Vulgaris were talking about Rockets over/under win totals, Vulgaris mentioned that one factor is that the team may not be done making additions yet. Got me thinking about who they might add even as a short term help.

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Last edited by Carl Herrera; 10-31-2012 at 02:32 PM.
 
jayhow92 is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:22 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Kevin Martin preseason: 16.5 PPG 0.547 FG% 0.500 3FG%
James Harden preseason: 13.5 PPG 0.286 FG% 0.250 3FG%

Not that just Martin was better fit(which was obvious in preseason), Harden been terrible since NBA finals. He has no midrange game and no right hand. Also James Harden never took more than 15 shots in one game(he did in one preseason game vs. Bulls when WB and KD was out, he went for 2-17). Martin is 21th most efficent scorer in NBA history and averaged more than 15 shots 5 times(he averaged 14.8 twice, so basically 7 times) in season. Not to mention Lamb who will turn out to be best player in this trade and pretty valuable Toronto pick.

Martin>Harden
Are you butthurt that all the spotlight isn't on Lin or something?
 
bobrek is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:28 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Kevin Martin preseason: 16.5 PPG 0.547 FG% 0.500 3FG%
James Harden preseason: 13.5 PPG 0.286 FG% 0.250 3FG%

Not that just Martin was better fit(which was obvious in preseason), Harden been terrible since NBA finals. He has no midrange game and no right hand. Also James Harden never took more than 15 shots in one game(he did in one preseason game vs. Bulls when WB and KD was out, he went for 2-17). Martin is 21th most efficent scorer in NBA history and averaged more than 15 shots 5 times(he averaged 14.8 twice, so basically 7 times) in season. Not to mention Lamb who will turn out to be best player in this trade and pretty valuable Toronto pick.

Martin>Harden
What were Lin's preseason stats since that is your basis for judging Martin vs. Harden.

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CXbby is offline Old 10-31-2012, 02:48 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Clutch View Post
but if you look at these 9 teams alone -- LA Lakers, OKC Thunder, LA Clippers, Denver, San Antonio, Memphis, Minnesota, Dallas and Utah -- it's hard to see the Rockets ahead of them right now.
First off, thank you to Clutch and Bima once again for their great work, always a terrific listen. Especially while charging my phone in the car now that everywhere around here is without power.

As for your 9 teams, I see Minnesota dropping out of the playoff chase by all star break due to their injuries, and Dallas tanking hard this year. Utah caps themselves out until they can redistribute their redundant talent concentrated in the front court.

As for the Rockets and your analysis on them, I think many are making a cardinal mistake, and that is relying on history without examining the circumstances.

Yes, youth has historically been hard to win with. Youth is unproven, and inconsistent. Usually when it comes to youth, it is uncertain what they will become, or if they can play at all. But this story is for a generalized broad view of youth. If you examine specifically the Rockets youth, outside of Patterson, they have all at some point experienced anywhere from success, to tremendous success, in the Nba. And even Patterson had a solid rookie year. The question for them is not what can they do, but rather can they simply replicate and expand upon what they have already done. This is in stark contrast to the circumstances of most youth. As once you have already shown you can produce at a certain level, the odds of you reaching it again and becoming that kind of player increases exponentially.

Clutch, you mention Terrence Jones as the young guy who may make rookie mistakes, which adds up and can cost wins. Well, Terrence Jones is the only guy, because he will be the only rookie in the entire rotation. And I doubt how much damage a 15 minute bench guy can do.

Just a quick tangent that this reminds me of. A big contributor of the 08 financial crisis was due to the mathematical models that were based on historical data breaking down. Housing prices on a nation wide basis have never fallen before, and when they finally did, the products based on these models also collapsed. What these people failed to realize was that in the face of unprecedented lending standards, and unprecedented gov policies, and unprecedented interest rates, an unprecedented outcome was imminently to follow. To hell with historical models.

The Houston Rockets are young. The youngest, in fact. And they are also about to show everyone why historical models can be deceptive, especially to those who aren't paying attention.

Are you paying attention?
 
CXbby is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:00 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by Carl Herrera View Post

There is some basis to this observation, but I think the Rockets have a chance to overcome their youth.

First, the Rockets are most likely going to play only 1 rookie, Terrence Jones, at least until the rest of them catch up later in the season. Second, their other projected rotation players have at least some history of success (even if not as full time, 82 game a season, 36+MPG starters) and is not being asked to reach a level that they have not reached before, but rather reach (or at least get close to) their prior level of performance but in a larger role (bigger minutes, over a longer stretch, etc.).

I don't think the team will have too many of those "Keystone Cops" stretches that we have seen out of teams like SAC, CHA, and WAS over the last few seasons with too many clueless young guys on the court at the same
Carl, did not see this while I was hammering away on my phone the past 20 minutes, slow swyper. Glad to have reiterated basically some of the same points. Hopefully outcome is better than Busty Morris, as I actually have some things riding on this one.

Last edited by CXbby; 10-31-2012 at 03:12 PM.
 
MKL is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:00 PM   #28
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LOL, this script written by Stephen A. Smith?

bash Lin but love fest with the Beard. Thanks man, why to go and alienate your fans and cause unneeded team drama.

You go into detail on how Harden and Mchale hug each other. hmmm
 
mikol13 is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:10 PM   #29
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@WojYahooNBA: James Harden has agreed to a 5 year, $80 million deal with Houston, source tells Y!
 
BimaThug is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:17 PM   #30
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Thanks, everyone, for the kinds words and constructive criticism.

A couple of things:

--No, we do NOT hate Jeremy Lin. In fact, we both rather like him. Do I think he's as good as Goran Dragic RIGHT NOW? No. Do I think he's as good as Kyle Lowry RIGHT NOW. Hell no. Do I think he can get significantly better, since he's only just turning 24? You bet! He's a great kid who you can't help but root for. I believe in his work ethic and his ability to get better. Clutch and I were just giving our honest opinions about Lin's expected level of play for THIS season.

(Also, the "artificial superstar" comment is intended to mean that Jeremy Lin--for however impressive of a player he is--is NOT a true superstar at this point in his career; but the media attention he receives is that of a superstar. I think Jeremy Lin himself would agree with that assessment. It is not intended as a slight or an insult to Lin.)

--HMMMHMM, excellent analysis of the (limited number of) teams potentially seeking cap relief this season. Yes, I had thought about that as well. But the fact remains, if even ONE team needs to dump salary, the Rockets will be near the front of a short line of teams willing and able to absorb that salary.

--Just saw that Harden got a FIVE-year deal. Good for him. FYI, the fifth year is still "only" around $18 million or so, and Harden will just then be ENTERING his prime! This will not be a case of paying a guy in his prime on a deal with gradually increasing salary, only to see that player getting paid the most in the years when he's on the decline. Harden should get better in every single season he's on that contract, including the last one.

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BMoney is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:26 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King1 View Post
You have the basketball knowledge of a fire hydrant.
Stop insulting fire hydrants!

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Carl Herrera is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:30 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by BMoney View Post
Stop insulting fire hydrants!
Yes, some of them have extremely high basketball IQ.



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King Boo is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:32 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by BimaThug View Post
(Also, the "artificial superstar" comment is intended to mean that Jeremy Lin--for however impressive of a player he is--is NOT a true superstar at this point in his career; but the media attention he receives is that of a superstar. I think Jeremy Lin himself would agree with that assessment. It is not intended as a slight or an insult to Lin.)
Fair point. Just taking those 2 words out of context like that makes it sound a lot harsher than was meant.

That said, Lin is getting paid the same contract as Jameer Nelson and a lesser contract than Mike Conley. Can't believe the amount of criticism Lin gets given that context.
 
tzou88 is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:43 PM   #34
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You have the basketball knowledge of a fire hydrant.
Look at his join date and username... what did you expect?

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johnstarks is offline Old 10-31-2012, 03:45 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Herrera View Post
The one thing I keep hearing from analysts and advance-stats types is that what prevents the Rockets from having a .500+ record is their likely heavy reliance on youth........

There is some basis to this observation, but I think the Rockets have a chance to overcome their youth.
I think it's not just their lack of experience, but the fact that only Parsons and Pat are the ones on the team that were part of the rotation last year. It takes a while to develop chemistry. In comparison to other teams with a stable core of players, it's a significant deficit to overcome.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CXbby View Post
A big contributor of the 08 financial crisis was due to the mathematical models that were based on historical data breaking down. Housing prices on a nation wide basis have never fallen before, and when they finally did, the products based on these models also collapsed. What these people failed to realize was that in the face of unprecedented lending standards, and unprecedented gov policies, and unprecedented interest rates, an unprecedented outcome was imminently to follow. To hell with historical models.

The Houston Rockets are young. The youngest, in fact. And they are also about to show everyone why historical models can be deceptive, especially to those who aren't paying attention.
You're right that decision-making based on retrospective statistical models alone were a big cause of how the housing collapse brought down the financial sector. But concluding that retrospective models are useless is a huge leap. Under most normal conditions, retrospective models give you a reasonable idea of the risks that different events will occur. They're limited when there are unprecedented events for which past data don't exist. But unless you think there's some unprecedented change in the NBA and how the players or the game of basketball is being played versus the past, I'm gonna go with the models and say that having a lack of experience will probably hurt the team in winning now. That said, I'm excited to see how the team grows this year and hope they do make the playoffs.

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CXbby is offline Old 10-31-2012, 04:08 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnstarks View Post



You're right that decision-making based on retrospective statistical models alone were a big cause of how the housing collapse brought down the financial sector. But concluding that retrospective models are useless is a huge leap. Under most normal conditions, retrospective models give you a reasonable idea of the risks that different events will occur. They're limited when there are unprecedented events for which past data don't exist. But unless you think there's some unprecedented change in the NBA and how the players or the game of basketball is being played versus the past, I'm gonna go with the models and say that having a lack of experience will probably hurt the team in winning now. That said, I'm excited to see how the team grows this year and hope they do make the playoffs.
Retrospective models are not useless, you just have to pay attention to the details and not blindly follow them. There is not a sea change in the way basketball is played, that is exactly why our young players have a good chance of replicating what they have already done. My point is that the circumstances of some of our young players is not quite comparable to your typical broad stroke of youth. So don't be surprised when the results stray from the historic models as well.
 
jocar is offline Old 10-31-2012, 04:15 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Lin has to handle the ball, play pick&roll, penetrate and decide:
1. finish around the rim
2. pass out to 3PT shooter
3. pass to big for dunk

There is no other perimeter player handling the ball in that equation. That's why Lin struggled with Melo and that's why he will with Harden. Lin is not 3PT shooter to stand on perimeter and watch what other player does.
omg shudup already
 
DorianTurk is offline Old 10-31-2012, 04:20 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Kevin Martin preseason: 16.5 PPG 0.547 FG% 0.500 3FG%
James Harden preseason: 13.5 PPG 0.286 FG% 0.250 3FG%

Not that just Martin was better fit(which was obvious in preseason), Harden been terrible since NBA finals. He has no midrange game and no right hand. Also James Harden never took more than 15 shots in one game(he did in one preseason game vs. Bulls when WB and KD was out, he went for 2-17). Martin is 21th most efficent scorer in NBA history and averaged more than 15 shots 5 times(he averaged 14.8 twice, so basically 7 times) in season. Not to mention Lamb who will turn out to be best player in this trade and pretty valuable Toronto pick.

Martin>Harden
talking about preseaon? thats how you rank martin>harden? is this seriously a joke cause i literally busted out laughing

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DorianTurk is offline Old 10-31-2012, 04:21 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LinMVP View Post
Lin has to handle the ball, play pick&roll, penetrate and decide:
1. finish around the rim
2. pass out to 3PT shooter
3. pass to big for dunk

There is no other perimeter player handling the ball in that equation. That's why Lin struggled with Melo and that's why he will with Harden. Lin is not 3PT shooter to stand on perimeter and watch what other player does.
Harden is a MUCH more polished ballhandler than lin...he will help out lin since he wont have to be depended on and vice versa. what have you been watching? are you a LOF? lol

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MKL is offline Old 10-31-2012, 04:23 PM   #40
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From the stats projection i.e Hollinger: Lin, Asik and Harden will be productive and worth their contract. However, when talking about Lin, people tend to say he is overhyped and disregard the stats projection.

I think you're either on the "Morey train of advance stats" or you're not. Talking about how Harden is projected to be this really great player and #1 option and then in the same breath disregard the Lin stats projections kind of annoys me. You base Harden's worth of $80mil extention from advance stats.
 

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