2012 Fantasy Football - Sleepers/Busts/Strategies/etc

[FLASH21]

Here's how one of my 12 team drafts turned out:

Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson
Arian Foster
Julio Jones
Dez Bryant
Shonn Greene
Antonio Gates
Packer D
Matt Prater

Bench
Anquan Boldin
Denarius Moore*
Jared Cook
Rashard Mendenhall
Jon Baldwin
Ronnie Brown

Did my best at drafting for value regardless of position. Chose Matt Ryan on the 7th round which is someone who I don't see as being elite NOW, but could finally rise to the level everyone else has been waiting for him to.

I have absolutely no confidence at all in Matthews being able to stay healthy so I say Rivers again plans to air it out or Brown will step in and perform solidly in the Tolbert type role. Plus he was my last overall pick and it was between him and Eddie Royal who I also like this year.

[what]

Originally Posted by FLASH21 Here's how one of my 12 team drafts turned out: Matt Ryan Adrian Peterson Arian Foster Julio Jones Dez Bryant Shonn Greene Antonio Gates Packer D Matt Prater Bench Anquan Boldin Denarius Moore* Jared Cook Rashard Mendenhall Jon Baldwin Ronnie Brown Did my best at drafting for value regardless of position. Chose Matt Ryan on the 7th round which is someone who I don't see as being elite NOW, but could finally rise to the level everyone else has been waiting for him to. I have absolutely no confidence at all in Matthews being able to stay healthy so I say Rivers again plans to air it out or Brown will step in and perform solidly in the Tolbert type role. Plus he was my last overall pick and it was between him and Eddie Royal who I also like this year.

I know you are high on Dez Bryant this year, but I think that there are a lot of young receivers that could be legit #1 or busts. Actually, if I were to pick the guy I have the most confidence in would be Victor Cruz. The guy has a GREAT attitude, a great chemistry with Eli. Another thing Dez hasn't shown enough for me to pick him where I'd have to pick him late 3nd or early 3rd round to warrant that high of a pick. You might consider going with Victor Cruz, who didn't have any contract demands after his breakout season and just wants to play football. Give me that guy all day.

[moestavern19]

Originally Posted by what I like Mathews because his drafting status is commensurate with how I see his value. Last year I was really big on McCoy because I thought that he had room to grow. This year I think he's already topped out. Part of why I like Mathews so much is that he is undervalued, and that will allow me to pick lower in the draft to maximize my talent. The only risk he presents is he is injury prone.

You think he's undervalued when a lot of draft sites and ranking him 4th?

[what]

Originally Posted by moestavern19 You think he's undervalued when a lot of draft sites and ranking him 4th?

I think that in terms of drafting and the masses he is. Certainly many publications are ranking him pretty high as well they should (tolbert gone, norv stating that he thinks Mathews can do more in the offense).

I suppose it depends who you are drafting with but I could see: Rice, MJD, Foster, Chris Johnson, McCoy, not to mention Calvin, Rodgers, Cam or brees or both going before him.

Mathews is just SO talented. Last year he could turn a simple catch in the flat into 20 yards. If tolbert had not have been there last year (even with his injury) he would have been close to the top back in football.

So I am super high on him.

[FLASH21]

Another dude I'm high on is Ryan Williams, unfortunately, someone took him earlier than I expected him to go. I think Beanie is too inconsistent for Wisenhunt and too out of shape this year as well.

[moestavern19]

I think Arizona is a fantasy cesspool.

McFadden to me is the most talented runner in the league, brutal combo of size and speed, deadly out of the backfield. Like Mathews, needs to prove he can stay on the field.

McCoy I think will get his just by virtue of the offense, even if his usage is down I think his TD total will still approach the 15-18 range.

Rice is a durable, consistent playmaker. Foster is a one cut master, just so good at finding the seam and hitting it hard.

After that, I really don't know. Steven Jackson is approaching the dreaded (get it?) year when RBs supposedly die. Fred Jackson is going to have to give carries to Spiller, Forte is finally paid so he might not play with that chip on his shoulder now.

Getting harder and harder to find 2 stud RBs.

[FLASH21]

Originally Posted by moestavern19 I think Arizona is a fantasy cesspool. McFadden to me is the most talented runner in the league, brutal combo of size and speed, deadly out of the backfield. Like Mathews, needs to prove he can stay on the field. McCoy I think will get his just by virtue of the offense, even if his usage is down I think his TD total will still approach the 15-18 range. Rice is a durable, consistent playmaker. Foster is a one cut master, just so good at finding the seam and hitting it hard. After that, I really don't know. Steven Jackson is approaching the dreaded (get it?) year when RBs supposedly die. Fred Jackson is going to have to give carries to Spiller, Forte is finally paid so he might not play with that chip on his shoulder now. Getting harder and harder to find 2 stud RBs.

I agree on the finding a stud 2 back will be difficult to do, I was really high on Greene last season but dumbass Rex Ryan decided to put the game in Sanchez's hands for most of the season and their season was a complete failure.

After finally giving him 20+ touches the finally few games of the season he started to show his worth, of course I like him this year too, especially if Tebow is called upon... we all saw what that did to an aging breaking down McGahee.

I know that AP is coming off a serious injury, but for him to fall as far as the second round is absurd. That's a top 5 player you can possibly snag at a bargain this year. I'd be ecstatic if my money leagues turned out the way this one did, especially the ppr one.

[what]

Originally Posted by moestavern19 I think Arizona is a fantasy cesspool. McFadden to me is the most talented runner in the league, brutal combo of size and speed, deadly out of the backfield. Like Mathews, needs to prove he can stay on the field. McCoy I think will get his just by virtue of the offense, even if his usage is down I think his TD total will still approach the 15-18 range. Rice is a durable, consistent playmaker. Foster is a one cut master, just so good at finding the seam and hitting it hard. After that, I really don't know. Steven Jackson is approaching the dreaded (get it?) year when RBs supposedly die. Fred Jackson is going to have to give carries to Spiller, Forte is finally paid so he might not play with that chip on his shoulder now. Getting harder and harder to find 2 stud RBs.

That's also what I am seeing. There really aren't 2 stud backs. But I do think that there are a lot of backs that can provide value from week to week as long as you get a few of them and play the matchup game.

As I said in that other thread, I like Felix Jones, Spiller (in certain rounds), remember, these guys that I am mentioning are guys I hope to get between the 5th and 8th round. Also, Reggie Bush, Beastmode.

I might take a flyer on Richardson in the 4th if he last that long.

[FLASH21]

Here's another draft I just wrapped up:

Phillip Rivers
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Julio Jones
Miles Austin
Eric Decker
Jared Cook
Pitt D
Randy Bullock

Bench
Anquan Boldin
Issac Redman
Jay Cutler
Ryan Williams
Jon Baldwin
Joseph Addai
Mikel Leshoure

I like this one a little better than my last. I actually snagged Rivers in the 5th round rather than waiting for the 7th for a QB, which may have made me sacrificed my chance at Stevie Johnson who I was targeting over Decker.

What surprised me in this one was that Rodgers went 1st overall, Matthews went 10th, and DeMarco Murray was choosen with the last pick of the first round. I had the 6th pick and was happy to have MJD fall right in my lap.

[what]

Originally Posted by FLASH21 Here's another draft I just wrapped up: Phillip Rivers Maurice Jones-Drew Adrian Peterson Julio Jones Miles Austin Eric Decker Jared Cook Pitt D Randy Bullock Bench Anquan Boldin Issac Redman Jay Cutler Ryan Williams Jon Baldwin Joseph Addai Mikel Leshoure I like this one a little better than my last. I actually snagged Rivers in the 5th round rather than waiting for the 7th for a QB, which may have made me sacrificed my chance at Stevie Johnson who I was targeting over Decker. What surprised me in this one was that Rodgers went 1st overall, Matthews went 10th, and DeMarco Murray was choosen with the last pick of the first round. I had the 6th pick and was happy to have MJD fall right in my lap.

Murray is a huge risk. I'm not calling him a bust, but I think Felix Jones is the best back in Dallas and he'll be starting over Murray soon. The places he's been taken at are insane.

Flash, I have noticed that you like to project players who have had hype in the past or high reputations coming into the league as potential breakout players. Dez Bryant, Ryan Willams. This might be a flaw in your game. While I understand the excitement of finding that breakout player, sometimes the risk outweighs the benefit. Guys like Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Beast mode, Sproles, Stewart, deangelo williams, shon green all have equal value to these high upside guys.

Honestly I wouldn't pick Dez Bryant before the 5th round and I wouldn't pick Williams before the 8th or 9th round. If you can pick up Issac Redman in the 8th round he'd probably provide as much or more value than Ryan Willams.

Williams is just too unknown right now.

[moestavern19]

I like Titus Young a lot, think he'll be the complement to Megatron everyone is looking for.

Detroit could approach a Scott Mitchell / Herman Moore / Bret Perriman 1995 season.

[Ziggy]

No way Felix Jones is better than Murray, and I'm not trying to jump on Murray's bandwagon either. Jones is not an every-down back.

[FLASH21]

Originally Posted by what Flash, I have noticed that you like to project players who have had hype in the past or high reputations coming into the league as potential breakout players. Dez Bryant, Ryan Willams. This might be a flaw in your game. While I understand the excitement of finding that breakout player, sometimes the risk outweighs the benefit. Guys like Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Beast mode, Sproles, Stewart, deangelo williams, shon green all have equal value to these high upside guys. Honestly I wouldn't pick Dez Bryant before the 5th round and I wouldn't pick Williams before the 8th or 9th round. If you can pick up Issac Redman in the 8th round he'd probably provide as much or more value than Ryan Willams. Williams is just too unknown right now.

I like Williams but its not like I've been wasting 5th or 6th round picks on him. I think he's a good bargain piece to take a chance on in late rounds, him and Leshoure. And I actually took Redman waaayyy before Williams in the 11th round.

The earliest I took Dez was actually the late 4th round so it's pretty much right on par with where you're projecting him.

What I think your misunderstanding is that I'm definitely not reaching on players through my drafts, just taking best available as they fall in the draft.

[what]

Originally Posted by Ziggy No way Felix Jones is better than Murray, and I'm not trying to jump on Murray's bandwagon either. Jones is not an every-down back.

I disagree with this. If you look hard into the numbers, last year Felix Jones actually improved in number of 100 yard games and number of 5 catch games or more from the year before. While his overall numbers are down, he is due to put up the kind of numbers he was projected to put up last year.

Also, just so you know, as far as an every down back (if you mean a guy like McCoy, then I agree with that.) I don't expect felix to have a 1400 yard season, by any means, but by the same token I don't project Murray to be close to that either.

If you get 4 100 yard games out of Jones then he is valuable, in my opinion. Just don't try to put him in a box with elite backs and you can still get great production from him.

Murray, I wouldn't draft on a bet. The guy is WAY WAY overvalued. He's done hardly nothing to warrant his draft position.

[Big MAK]

Here are my thoughts on RB:

Ive done a few mock drafts. I'm looking to get either Foster, McCoy or Rice if I get the chance. After that, I'm looking at getting MJD late first round, McFadden (maybe) in the 2nd round. CJ, Forte, Murry, Charles, Lynch at some point in the late 2nd through the 4th (depending on who else is available, of course).

But, that's normal I suppose. Those guys and maybe a couple more are 'always start' imo. If I can get a Fost and Lynch, great. If not, it's not the end of the world. There seems to be quite a few starting RB that have good potential, depending on the opponent. If I can't get 2 of the better RB, I plan on drafting players like Blount, Hillis, Green-Ellis, Tate, Bush, etc late in the draft and playing whomever is playing the worst D.

It's much easier to predict a RB to have a good game based on their opponent than a WR/TE.

[what]

Originally Posted by Big MAK Here are my thoughts on RB: Ive done a few mock drafts. I'm looking to get either Foster, McCoy or Rice if I get the chance. After that, I'm looking at getting MJD late first round, McFadden (maybe) in the 2nd round. CJ, Forte, Murry, Charles, Lynch at some point in the late 2nd through the 4th (depending on who else is available, of course). But, that's normal I suppose. Those guys and maybe a couple more are 'always start' imo. If I can get a Fost and Lynch, great. If not, it's not the end of the world. There seems to be quite a few starting RB that have good potential, depending on the opponent. If I can't get 2 of the better RB, I plan on drafting players like Blount, Hillis, Green-Ellis, Tate, Bush, etc late in the draft and playing whomever is playing the worst D. It's much easier to predict a RB to have a good game based on their opponent than a WR/TE.

Basically everybody is on your list but Mathews. I see what you did there. It's okay, but ego is secure.

[Big MAK]

Originally Posted by what Basically everybody is on your list but Mathews. I see what you did there. It's okay, but ego is secure.

haha, touche...

My point was, if you cant get two top RB, go for some late in the draft, since there will be a few with potential.

Also, Richardson wasn't on my list (also thought about leaving off CJ).

[FLASH21]

Ok this is my last team post, just to show how un-subjective I've been.
This was my first draft but I didn't post it cause the league had a weird 8 team; 2 QB, 2 Defense, and 3 Flex players structure:

Starters
Tony Romo
Peyton Manning
Maurice Jones-Drew
Adrian Peterson
Andre Johnson
Mike Wallace
Jason Witten
Brandon Pettigrew
Eric Decker
Jeremy Maclin
Anquan Boldin
Steelers D
Giants D
Matt Prater

Bench
DeAngelo Williams
James Starks
Michael Bush
Joe Flacco
Shane Vereen
Michael Floyd
Leonard Hankerson
Ryan Williams
Kendall Wright

It's gonna be a high scoring league but man some people are totally stacked.

[moestavern19]

What do you guys think about this trade?

Team A receives

Brandon Marshall
Willis McGahee
Justin Blackmon

Team B receivers

Torrey Smith
Eric Decker
Benjarvus Green-Ellis

[FLASH21]

Originally Posted by moestavern19 What do you guys think about this trade? Team A receives Brandon Marshall Willis McGahee Justin Blackmon Team B receivers Torrey Smith Eric Decker Benjarvus Green-Ellis

Seems just about dead even to me.

Marshall > Decker
McGahee < BJGE
Smith = Blackmon (potential guys)

Slight edge to whoever team B is because the law firm is just that much better than McGahee with a good opportunity in Cincy.