Wonder if Muray chickened out and low balled him an offer like the MLE instead of the offer that was rumored about...
Why would he change his mind between last night (when the $8 mil figure was reported) and midnight? Did Omer Asik get caught exposing himself to children?
__________________
Do. Or Donatas. There is no try.
How many shots did you see Camby and Dalembert shooting?
Look back to Chuck Hayes who was an offensive zero under JVG/Thibs and what he turned into offensively with a different coach.
__________________
My Off Season Plan:
-Jazz SnT Milsap 4 yrs (8,9,10,11) to Houston for Lin/Trob
- Decline options (Waive): Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Anderson and Ohlbrect
- Sign Dwight Howard for max
- Sign Garcia, Anderson, Llull to deals with exceptions
Beverly / Llull
Harden / Anderson
Parsons / Garcia / Jones
Milsap / Smith / Motiejunas
Howard / Asik
Love it - $8M per season for a guy who averages 3 pts and 5 rebs per game. That is Jim McIlvaine-esque.
mcgee starts and asik gets 14 minutes per game. WTF is wrong with people in this forun now. everyone is against getting the only center we can afford that can make a differnce on the floor. If you guys were the GM patterson would be at center because you wouldnt pay ryan hollins 6 mill per year
mcgee starts and asik gets 14 minutes per game. WTF is wrong with people in this forun now. everyone is against getting the only center we can afford that can make a differnce on the floor. If you guys were the GM patterson would be at center because you wouldnt pay ryan hollins 6 mill per year
He gets 14 mins per game because he is a clumsy, unskilled oaf.
Omer Asik doesn't even make the list of top 25 free agents ranked by PER this summer.
Time is moving swiftly in the NBA these days. In a little more than a week, we've crowned a champion, drafted a new crop of rookies and on Sunday, we'll have a fresh group of free agents hitting the marketplace. That's the residual of last fall's nightmarish lockout but thankfully, once we hit July 1, we're officially into the 2012-13 season and back on a normal calendar. Whew.
Let's take a look at these free agents-to-be. I've ranked them according to the estimated 2012-13 PER. My method was simply to average the past three years and apply a basic aging adjustment. That latter part was important because too often, teams pay for what a player has done as opposed to what he's going to do. Of course, the younger a player is, the less likely it is that he'll change teams, thanks to the vagaries of restricted free agency. Alas.
In each instance, I've indicated whether a player is a restricted (RFA) or an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
The top 10
1. Ryan Anderson (2013 Age: 24)
Estimated PER: 21.8; Status: RFA
Anderson
Anderson has always had sparkling per-minute numbers and last season, he took a major step forward in playing time. The combination of efficiency and opportunity marked him as an All-Star caliber talent. Unfortunately, his performance lagged after Dwight Howard was injured. With Howard potentially on his way out of Orlando, it's entirely possible that the new Magic regime will view him as too expensive to retain.
Lopez
It was just five games, but last season Lopez's problematic rebounding numbers were unbelievably low for an NBA center. His troubles in that area seem to get worse with each season. For the Nets, that may present a problem both in terms of counting on him as a building block and using him as a trade chip. While the defense and rebuilding are lax, few big men have Lopez's upside as a scorer. Brooklyn obviously won't let him walk, but whether Lopez remains a Net, he's got to be paired up with an impact interior defender.
Evans
You won't see Evans this high up on many top free-agent lists but, again, we're ranking players by a bottom-line metric. The fact of the matter is that Evans has been remarkably efficient so far in his career, posting a .665 true shooting percentage in two NBA seasons. Sure, that's because he dunks about everything he gets his hands on, but he's also got crazy-good shot-blocking numbers. He's only played 680 minutes in two NBA seasons and may be hopelessly stuck behind a logjam of big men in Utah. It would be really interesting to see what Evans could do with a regular rotation role.
Duncan
As we saw throughout the playoffs, Duncan is still a franchise-type performer. Wouldn't it be a gas to see him just up and change teams? But we know that's not going to happen. Whether it's one season, two seasons or more, Duncan is a Spur for life. In the grand scheme of things, that's a really refreshing thought.
Williams
You might have assumed that Williams would be the default top free agent and, in reality, he is. His estimated PER would rank on top if it were based on his past three seasons in Utah. As a Net, Williams has had to shoulder too much of the scoring load and his efficiency has taken a hit as a result. He's still one of the league's best guards, but he's 28 and probably as good as he's ever going to be. Still, he's the best unrestricted free agent who might actually switch teams. The problem for the majority of the league is that Williams has pretty much promised to either stay with the Nets or return to his hometown of Dallas. At least he's honest about his intentions.
6. Jeremy Lin (2013 Age: 24)
Estimated PER: 20.6; Status: RFA
Lin
When you think about it, Lin is kind of like Evans in that he's posted a sparking PER in limited NBA minutes. Of course, most of those minutes came in a super high-profile burst in the nation's media capital, so we know all about it. I personally believe that Lin is a legit 18-20 PER player. My main concerns about investing heavily in him are his playing style and body type. He got bounced around pretty good during all of those forays into the lane last season and ultimately wasn't available down the stretch. Still, this is a player the Knicks can work with.
McGee
If McGee had not been traded out of Washington, you'd have to consider him a serious candidate to be the rare RFA who moves on. After all, Ernie Grunfeld appeared to be desperate to change the culture in the Wizards' locker room and McGee was a big part of that. The Nuggets liked him fine, though, and he responded by playing the best basketball of his career. Denver will match any offer he gets, hoping he becomes the player he was never likely to become in Washington.
Randolph
Randolph remains an undisciplined box score filler, which makes him look better on paper than on the court. His numbers have gotten worse as his career has unfolded, never a good sign. It's bad enough that the 'RFA' may well change to 'UFA' if the Timberwolves decline to make him a qualifying offer. Given Randolph's age and still-considerable raw potential, someone will take a flier. His agent should be looking to sacrifice dollars for an opportunity to play a significant role, even if it's on a really bad team.
Williams
Guys like Williams are hard to find. He is willing to come off the bench and has done so effectively throughout his career. He can play either backcourt position and offers scoring punch, a change of pace and another option for closing out games. The Sixers are desperate for scoring as it is, so it seems unlikely they'll let Williams slip away.
Nash
Nash has showed few signs of slowing down but at 38, he's almost certainly in ring-chasing mode at this point in his career. In a league short of pure playmakers, he's still one of the all-time best. You do have to wonder how he'd adapt to a different system. He'd be effective, you'd think, but the issue of diminishing returns could be a problem. His case is the most intriguing of any free agent on the market.
With Milwaukee selecting John Henson on Thursday, Ilyasova might prove to be too expensive for the Bucks to retain, making him one of the best players who may actually change teams.
Batum may be developing into one of the best two-way wing players in the league, which means he's going to get some kind of sizable offer that the Blazers likely will have to match.
Landry should choose fit over max dollars because if he can find a slot alongside a legit defensive center with face-up ability, his interior scoring would be a boost to a lot of teams.
This estimate ignores Billups' torn Achilles, which obviously will limit his options in finding a new employer, though he has said he intends to keep playing.
While the default stance is that good restricted free agents are always going to re-sign with their current team, you could envision a scenario where Lopez lands a good enough offer that the Suns opt to just cast their lot with Marcin Gortat for heavy minutes in the middle.
Because Hibbert plays a position of scarcity, he'll probably get a big offer and the Pacers almost certainly will match it, but he's at an age where continued improvement is not guaranteed.
Although technically Speights is at an age where you'd expect him to get better, the fact of the matter is that he's played worse with each passing season during his four years in the league.
McGee didn't play stupid for the Nuggets like he did with the Wizards. He was a defensive force in the playoffs for them. One of the top shot blockers, he's younger than Asik and has the much higher ceiling. His per 36 averages on his career are 14.6ppg-10.2rpg-3.1bpg. It would've been perfect to have him here under McHale.
__________________
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Support the team and players.
Omer Asik doesn't even make the list of top 25 free agents ranked by PER this summer.
Time is moving swiftly in the NBA these days. In a little more than a week, we've crowned a champion, drafted a new crop of rookies and on Sunday, we'll have a fresh group of free agents hitting the marketplace. That's the residual of last fall's nightmarish lockout but thankfully, once we hit July 1, we're officially into the 2012-13 season and back on a normal calendar. Whew.
Let's take a look at these free agents-to-be. I've ranked them according to the estimated 2012-13 PER. My method was simply to average the past three years and apply a basic aging adjustment. That latter part was important because too often, teams pay for what a player has done as opposed to what he's going to do. Of course, the younger a player is, the less likely it is that he'll change teams, thanks to the vagaries of restricted free agency. Alas.
In each instance, I've indicated whether a player is a restricted (RFA) or an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
The top 10
1. Ryan Anderson (2013 Age: 24)
Estimated PER: 21.8; Status: RFA
Anderson
Anderson has always had sparkling per-minute numbers and last season, he took a major step forward in playing time. The combination of efficiency and opportunity marked him as an All-Star caliber talent. Unfortunately, his performance lagged after Dwight Howard was injured. With Howard potentially on his way out of Orlando, it's entirely possible that the new Magic regime will view him as too expensive to retain.
Lopez
It was just five games, but last season Lopez's problematic rebounding numbers were unbelievably low for an NBA center. His troubles in that area seem to get worse with each season. For the Nets, that may present a problem both in terms of counting on him as a building block and using him as a trade chip. While the defense and rebuilding are lax, few big men have Lopez's upside as a scorer. Brooklyn obviously won't let him walk, but whether Lopez remains a Net, he's got to be paired up with an impact interior defender.
Evans
You won't see Evans this high up on many top free-agent lists but, again, we're ranking players by a bottom-line metric. The fact of the matter is that Evans has been remarkably efficient so far in his career, posting a .665 true shooting percentage in two NBA seasons. Sure, that's because he dunks about everything he gets his hands on, but he's also got crazy-good shot-blocking numbers. He's only played 680 minutes in two NBA seasons and may be hopelessly stuck behind a logjam of big men in Utah. It would be really interesting to see what Evans could do with a regular rotation role.
Duncan
As we saw throughout the playoffs, Duncan is still a franchise-type performer. Wouldn't it be a gas to see him just up and change teams? But we know that's not going to happen. Whether it's one season, two seasons or more, Duncan is a Spur for life. In the grand scheme of things, that's a really refreshing thought.
Williams
You might have assumed that Williams would be the default top free agent and, in reality, he is. His estimated PER would rank on top if it were based on his past three seasons in Utah. As a Net, Williams has had to shoulder too much of the scoring load and his efficiency has taken a hit as a result. He's still one of the league's best guards, but he's 28 and probably as good as he's ever going to be. Still, he's the best unrestricted free agent who might actually switch teams. The problem for the majority of the league is that Williams has pretty much promised to either stay with the Nets or return to his hometown of Dallas. At least he's honest about his intentions.
6. Jeremy Lin (2013 Age: 24)
Estimated PER: 20.6; Status: RFA
Lin
When you think about it, Lin is kind of like Evans in that he's posted a sparking PER in limited NBA minutes. Of course, most of those minutes came in a super high-profile burst in the nation's media capital, so we know all about it. I personally believe that Lin is a legit 18-20 PER player. My main concerns about investing heavily in him are his playing style and body type. He got bounced around pretty good during all of those forays into the lane last season and ultimately wasn't available down the stretch. Still, this is a player the Knicks can work with.
McGee
If McGee had not been traded out of Washington, you'd have to consider him a serious candidate to be the rare RFA who moves on. After all, Ernie Grunfeld appeared to be desperate to change the culture in the Wizards' locker room and McGee was a big part of that. The Nuggets liked him fine, though, and he responded by playing the best basketball of his career. Denver will match any offer he gets, hoping he becomes the player he was never likely to become in Washington.
Randolph
Randolph remains an undisciplined box score filler, which makes him look better on paper than on the court. His numbers have gotten worse as his career has unfolded, never a good sign. It's bad enough that the 'RFA' may well change to 'UFA' if the Timberwolves decline to make him a qualifying offer. Given Randolph's age and still-considerable raw potential, someone will take a flier. His agent should be looking to sacrifice dollars for an opportunity to play a significant role, even if it's on a really bad team.
Williams
Guys like Williams are hard to find. He is willing to come off the bench and has done so effectively throughout his career. He can play either backcourt position and offers scoring punch, a change of pace and another option for closing out games. The Sixers are desperate for scoring as it is, so it seems unlikely they'll let Williams slip away.
Nash
Nash has showed few signs of slowing down but at 38, he's almost certainly in ring-chasing mode at this point in his career. In a league short of pure playmakers, he's still one of the all-time best. You do have to wonder how he'd adapt to a different system. He'd be effective, you'd think, but the issue of diminishing returns could be a problem. His case is the most intriguing of any free agent on the market.
With Milwaukee selecting John Henson on Thursday, Ilyasova might prove to be too expensive for the Bucks to retain, making him one of the best players who may actually change teams.
Batum may be developing into one of the best two-way wing players in the league, which means he's going to get some kind of sizable offer that the Blazers likely will have to match.
Landry should choose fit over max dollars because if he can find a slot alongside a legit defensive center with face-up ability, his interior scoring would be a boost to a lot of teams.
This estimate ignores Billups' torn Achilles, which obviously will limit his options in finding a new employer, though he has said he intends to keep playing.
While the default stance is that good restricted free agents are always going to re-sign with their current team, you could envision a scenario where Lopez lands a good enough offer that the Suns opt to just cast their lot with Marcin Gortat for heavy minutes in the middle.
Because Hibbert plays a position of scarcity, he'll probably get a big offer and the Pacers almost certainly will match it, but he's at an age where continued improvement is not guaranteed.
Although technically Speights is at an age where you'd expect him to get better, the fact of the matter is that he's played worse with each passing season during his four years in the league.
That's because PER is a stat that mostly summarizes offensive output. If there was a equivalent of PER for defensive Asik without question would be in the top-5.
How many shots did you see Camby and Dalembert shooting?
Look back to Chuck Hayes who was an offensive zero under JVG/Thibs and what he turned into offensively with a different coach.
Asik doesn't even have half the offense that Camby, Dalembert, and maybe Hayes have. When they he is non-existent on offense, they literally mean it. He averaged like 4 pts on 21 minutes during the playoffs. Their is a reason why he's on the floor so limited. The Bulls still got elite D 34 out of the 48 minutes they didn't play him.
That's because PER is a stat that mostly summarizes offensive output. If there was a equivalent of PER for defensive Asik without question would be in the top-5.
And furthermore... anyone on that list that would be of interest or need will be matched. And ironically, a few were described as needing an interior defensive presence... which is what Asik offers.
Asik doesn't even have half the offense that Camby, Dalembert, and maybe Hayes have. When they he is non-existent on offense, they literally mean it. He averaged like 4 pts on 21 minutes during the playoffs. Their is a reason why he's on the floor so limited. The Bulls still got elite D 34 out of the 48 minutes they didn't play him.
OK, so Asik doesn't contribute offensively. If he comes in and stops the freeway to the hoop that has plagued the Rockets prior to Dalembert's and Camby's arrival I'd be happy.
And interesting you mention that the Bulls got elite D for the minutes Asik isn't on the floor... look at the Rockets current starting five:
Lowry (or Dragic, if he re-signs)
Martin
Parsons
Scola
Dmo (or Camby, if he re-signs)
Do you see an elite defense? Heck, even an average defense?
Asik doesn't even have half the offense that Camby, Dalembert, and maybe Hayes have. When they he is non-existent on offense, they literally mean it. He averaged like 4 pts on 21 minutes during the playoffs. Their is a reason why he's on the floor so limited. The Bulls still got elite D 34 out of the 48 minutes they didn't play him.
You're right there is a reason. His name is Noah.
__________________
My Off Season Plan:
-Jazz SnT Milsap 4 yrs (8,9,10,11) to Houston for Lin/Trob
- Decline options (Waive): Brooks, Delfino, Garcia, Anderson and Ohlbrect
- Sign Dwight Howard for max
- Sign Garcia, Anderson, Llull to deals with exceptions
Beverly / Llull
Harden / Anderson
Parsons / Garcia / Jones
Milsap / Smith / Motiejunas
Howard / Asik
Mike McGraw: Very possible @BullsBlog: You think they could revisit those Asik/Lee trade rumors? Houston already has K-Mart and now Lamb. about 14 minutes ago
Mike McGraw: I agree with those who think Bulls would not match if Rockets come up with a 5-5-11-11 (4 yr, 32 mil) offer sheet for Omer. about 17 minutes ago
07-01-2012, 03:25 PM
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