Damian Lillard

[coachbadlee]

See what i'm sayin'?

http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/201...e-the-movement

[ObamaFan]

Originally Posted by coachbadlee See what i'm sayin'? http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/201...e-the-movement

No way that kid will ever be Derrick Rose.

[NIKEstrad]

Originally Posted by coachbadlee This is why he is worth the pick at #5 or #6. ... [/IMG][/URL]

Yep, not a single other player on that list looks like a first rounder. Really appealing evidence.

He looks like Rodney Stuckey to me, and Lillard as a 4th year college player put up pretty similar numbers to a sophomore Stuckey at Eastern Washington (same conference as Weber State).

Main difference is Stuckey was a below average perimeter shooter, and Lillard seems like a good one (though the clips look like he has a low/slow release). Stuckey was also a couple inches taller and thicker.

Biggest question mark is Lillard's ability to be a premier facilitator. He didn't prove it in college, and I wouldn't be confident in his ability to make that transition. If he doesn't, his upside is somewhere between George Hill and Rodney Stuckey. Not a bad player, somewhere in the rotation, but not exactly a lead dog point guard.

[haoafu]

Originally Posted by NIKEstrad Yep, not a single other player on that list looks like a first rounder. Really appealing evidence. He looks like Rodney Stuckey to me, and Lillard as a 4th year college player put up pretty similar numbers to a sophomore Stuckey at Eastern Washington (same conference as Weber State). Main difference is Stuckey was a below average perimeter shooter, and Lillard seems like a good one (though the clips look like he has a low/slow release). Stuckey was also a couple inches taller and thicker. Biggest question mark is Lillard's ability to be a premier facilitator. He didn't prove it in college, and I wouldn't be confident in his ability to make that transition. If he doesn't, his upside is somewhere between George Hill and Rodney Stuckey. Not a bad player, somewhere in the rotation, but not exactly a lead dog point guard.

Good points. Other than his shooting ability, Lillard's value stems from his significant improvement year over year in college. For a specific example, he cut his turnover rate a lot just last year, and his assit/turnover ratio is now pretty decent and better than Stuckey's college years.

I don't buy into the younger players with more upside theory(it is on average or in theory). Some younger prospects remain the same or regressed throughout their career and some older ones actually improved every year.

[coachbadlee]

Originally Posted by NIKEstrad Yep, not a single other player on that list looks like a first rounder. Really appealing evidence. He looks like Rodney Stuckey to me, and Lillard as a 4th year college player put up pretty similar numbers to a sophomore Stuckey at Eastern Washington (same conference as Weber State). Main difference is Stuckey was a below average perimeter shooter, and Lillard seems like a good one (though the clips look like he has a low/slow release). Stuckey was also a couple inches taller and thicker. Biggest question mark is Lillard's ability to be a premier facilitator. He didn't prove it in college, and I wouldn't be confident in his ability to make that transition. If he doesn't, his upside is somewhere between George Hill and Rodney Stuckey. Not a bad player, somewhere in the rotation, but not exactly a lead dog point guard.

WTF??!!! Stuckey was scoring 24 points a game in college???

[haoafu]

Originally Posted by coachbadlee WTF??!!! Stuckey was scoring 24 points a game in college???

Yes, he was, and doing it in consecutive years.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...ey-1015/stats/

[Possum]

Do not want another player that can only play one position because of size. If we want another PG then draft Tony Wroten who has the size and ability to play PG and SG.

[NIKEstrad]

Originally Posted by coachbadlee WTF??!!! Stuckey was scoring 24 points a game in college???

Uh, yeah.

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...ey-1015/stats/

24.6 ppg, 5.5 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 steals, on 45% shooting, 85% FT%, 3.4 turnovers, and 27% 3P% (shot 37% his freshman year).

He measured 6'4.5'' in shoes and 207 lbs. with a 35'' vertical.

Compare that to Lillard (red shirt junior to true sophomore).

24.5 ppg, 4 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 2.3 turnovers, on 47% shooting, 89% FT%, 41% FT%

He measure 6'2.75'' in shoes and 189 lbs. with a 39'' vertical.

Minutes were similar (Lillard played about a minute more), and they played in the same Big Sky conference.

By the numbers, they're about as similar as you get in my opinion. Lillard has the edge on the 3 point percentage, and the lower turnovers. Stuckey has the edge in steals and assists and size (as he's done in the NBA, part of Stuckey's value is being able to legitimately slide up to the 2, which Lillard can't really do given he's about 20 lbs. shy of Stuckey).

For what it's worth, Lillard's explosiveness didn't really pop to me. Don't get me wrong, he's got plus NBA athleticism at the point guard slot, primarily due to his quickness and body control, but I didn't see a 39'' vertical type of guy in those clips. Given his level of competition, I would've expected him to finish a few more plays with the dunk, like a much smaller PG in Aaron Brooks could do in college, but it looked like he didn't have that kind of elevation.

Interesting comparing his measurements to Stuckey's -- he's about 1.5'' shorter, but he has a 0.5'' longer wingspan to offset it -- despite that, his standing reach measure 5 inches shorter than Stuckey's. It would seem to me that his 39'' vertical may have been inflated a bit.

haofu made a good point about Lillard cutting down turnovers, but that still spells to me a player more in the George Hill/Stuckey mode. In the back half of the lottery, a starter on a playoff team caliber player would be a great pick, but I don't see a Derrick Rose type of upside for him. Perhaps a best case may be a guy like Stephon Curry.

[jopatmc]

Good points Nikestrad.


You are making a solid case for Lillard being a top 15 point guard coming into the league.

While that doesn't make him Derrick Rose, it does make him very good value coming into the league, especially since if he goes to the right team, he will immediately start and provide dividends.


And I do consider Stuckey very undervalued in the NBA. The seizure episode greatly concerns me about him though. And I don't think he's been quite the same player since that incident. I think he's a great baller. But the seizure issue scares me a bit.

[Aruba77]

He's gone at #6 to Portland. Dude tore up the Blazers workout and had dinner with Paul Allen after. They're looking for a franchise point guard. It's too perfect.

[jopatmc]

Originally Posted by Aruba77 He's gone at #6 to Portland. Dude tore up the Blazers workout and had dinner with Paul Allen after. They're looking for a franchise point guard. It's too perfect.

I think you're right.

[NIKEstrad]

Originally Posted by Possum Do not want another player that can only play one position because of size. If we want another PG then draft Tony Wroten who has the size and ability to play PG and SG.

I really like the concept of a guy like Wroten, a 6'6'' point guard, but their track record in the NBA has just not been good.

Other than the really high end guys, like Penny Hardaway and maybe Tyreke Evans, all of the others in the last 20 years just seem to bust. Penny and Shaun Livingston had their careers derailed by injuries.

On the flip side, guys like Jeryl Sasser, Mardy Collins, and Reece Gaines not only failed, but failed pretty miserably. Evan Turner was supposed to be this type of guy, and his career has been pretty mediocre to start. Greivis Vasquez had an ok year after Memphis gave up on him pretty early.

You could argue Brandon Roy was in this mode, and maybe a guy like Jamal Crawford too. Kind of weird that Roy, Hardaway, and Livingston all had their careers derailed prematurely due to injuries. I wonder if guys aren't supposed to handle the athletic burden of being a point guard.

Am I missing any other examples?

Edit: Forgot one. Marko Jaric. He was actually pretty good for where he was drafted (top of the 2nd round).

[jopatmc]

Originally Posted by NIKEstrad I really like the concept of a guy like Wroten, a 6'6'' point guard, but their track record in the NBA has just not been good. Other than the really high end guys, like Penny Hardaway and maybe Tyreke Evans, all of the others in the last 20 years just seem to bust. Penny and Shaun Livingston had their careers derailed by injuries. On the flip side, guys like Jeryl Sasser, Mardy Collins, and Reece Gaines not only failed, but failed pretty miserably. Evan Turner was supposed to be this type of guy, and his career has been pretty mediocre to start. Greivis Vasquez had an ok year after Memphis gave up on him pretty early. You could argue Brandon Roy was in this mode, and maybe a guy like Jamal Crawford too. Kind of weird that Roy, Hardaway, and Livingston all had their careers derailed prematurely due to injuries. I wonder if guys aren't supposed to handle the athletic burden of being a point guard. Am I missing any other examples?

Roy was a winner coming out of college. He played like a winner.

Wroten has all-world talent but he plays like a knucklehead. The closest comparison is a left-handed, less-skilled, less-refined Russell Westbrook. He's got the same athleticism, the same size, and I'm sorry to say this, but the same temperment. IMO, if Wroten simply had a brain and used it properly, he'd be in the argument for the #1 pick in the draft. But without the brain, just like Stromile Swift and other guys, he's a bundle of phsyical and athletic talent and potential that you can't do anything with except breed it to a woman with a brain and hope it produces a child with the intelligence of the mother and all the athletic ability of the father.

Wroten is one of those guys that you salivate over when you watch him in clips but when you watch him play a game you realize he just doesn't have it.

[NIKEstrad]

Originally Posted by jopatmc Good points Nikestrad. You are making a solid case for Lillard being a top 15 point guard coming into the league. While that doesn't make him Derrick Rose, it does make him very good value coming into the league, especially since if he goes to the right team, he will immediately start and provide dividends. And I do consider Stuckey very undervalued in the NBA. The seizure episode greatly concerns me about him though. And I don't think he's been quite the same player since that incident. I think he's a great baller. But the seizure issue scares me a bit.

I can agree with that, though I don't think he'll be a top 15 point guard immediately (very few point guards are!). It's also why I don't see much value in him for the Rockets -- we have 2 guys in Lowry and Dragic that are on a similar level of what I'd see Lillard becoming. Given it seems like we'd have to move up several spots to land him, I don't see the point of that. If this were 4-5 years ago as a supporting piece to TMac/Yao, it's probably a very different thought process.

[jopatmc]

Originally Posted by NIKEstrad I can agree with that, though I don't think he'll be a top 15 point guard immediately (very few point guards are!). It's also why I don't see much value in him for the Rockets -- we have 2 guys in Lowry and Dragic that are on a similar level of what I'd see Lillard becoming. Given it seems like we'd have to move up several spots to land him, I don't see the point of that. If this were 4-5 years ago as a supporting piece to TMac/Yao, it's probably a very different thought process.

I agree with that. Would love to have the kid though. And I'm convinced he'll have a great rookie year and a great career barring serious injury. The game is all there. He can play. I think he'll be in the running for ROY and will be one of the top 4 players in this draft next season and throughout his career and it wouldn't surprise me if he wound up being the best player in this draft. One busted out knee for Davis and guys like this move to the top of the best players list. He's right there at the top of the best players in this draft right now.

[jtr]

Originally Posted by jopatmc I agree with that. Would love to have the kid though. And I'm convinced he'll have a great rookie year and a great career barring serious injury. The game is all there. He can play. I think he'll be in the running for ROY and will be one of the top 4 players in this draft next season and throughout his career and it wouldn't surprise me if he wound up being the best player in this draft. One busted out knee for Davis and guys like this move to the top of the best players list. He's right there at the top of the best players in this draft right now.

The real question is can he play the point in the NBA? NBA players are like nothing that Lilliard faced in faced in college. The lack of decent competition makes him difficult to project. And if he cannot transition into a PG what other position can he play?

[jopatmc]

Originally Posted by jtr The real question is can he play the point in the NBA? NBA players are like nothing that Lilliard faced in faced in college. The lack of decent competition makes him difficult to project. And if he cannot transition into a PG what other position can he play?

He's a PG. He'll play PG in the NBA.

[jtr]

Originally Posted by jopatmc He's a PG. He'll play PG in the NBA.

It is not a given that he will be able to transition. From draftexpress:

Lillard still hasn't shown a great deal in terms of pure playmaking ability, but he looks to have nice passing instincts on dribble penetration, and his role at Weber State calls for him to be their primary scorer, so it's tough to get a gauge of just how much of a distributor he might be in a different situation. This might be the biggest question he faces as enters the draft process, as he's clearly not big enough to play any other position besides point guard.

From swishscout:

Long Story Short: Lillard’s a quick point guard and gamer who can flat out score by attacking the basket, spotting up or creating his own shot from the perimeter. Although he has upside at the position, Damian’s passing skills are mediocre and his shooting mechanics are suspect, making him a mid-late first rounder at best in 2012.

[jopatmc]

It's not a given any player can ever transition, including Anthony Davis and Michael Jordan. But it's more than likely that some will. Lillard falls into the "more than likely" class.

[haoafu]

Originally Posted by NIKEstrad Uh, yeah. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/...ey-1015/stats/ 24.6 ppg, 5.5 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 steals, on 45% shooting, 85% FT%, 3.4 turnovers, and 27% 3P% (shot 37% his freshman year). He measured 6'4.5'' in shoes and 207 lbs. with a 35'' vertical. Compare that to Lillard (red shirt junior to true sophomore). 24.5 ppg, 4 assists, 5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 2.3 turnovers, on 47% shooting, 89% FT%, 41% FT% He measure 6'2.75'' in shoes and 189 lbs. with a 39'' vertical. Minutes were similar (Lillard played about a minute more), and they played in the same Big Sky conference. By the numbers, they're about as similar as you get in my opinion. Lillard has the edge on the 3 point percentage, and the lower turnovers. Stuckey has the edge in steals and assists and size (as he's done in the NBA, part of Stuckey's value is being able to legitimately slide up to the 2, which Lillard can't really do given he's about 20 lbs. shy of Stuckey). For what it's worth, Lillard's explosiveness didn't really pop to me. Don't get me wrong, he's got plus NBA athleticism at the point guard slot, primarily due to his quickness and body control, but I didn't see a 39'' vertical type of guy in those clips. Given his level of competition, I would've expected him to finish a few more plays with the dunk, like a much smaller PG in Aaron Brooks could do in college, but it looked like he didn't have that kind of elevation. Interesting comparing his measurements to Stuckey's -- he's about 1.5'' shorter, but he has a 0.5'' longer wingspan to offset it -- despite that, his standing reach measure 5 inches shorter than Stuckey's. It would seem to me that his 39'' vertical may have been inflated a bit. haofu made a good point about Lillard cutting down turnovers, but that still spells to me a player more in the George Hill/Stuckey mode. In the back half of the lottery, a starter on a playoff team caliber player would be a great pick, but I don't see a Derrick Rose type of upside for him. Perhaps a best case may be a guy like Stephon Curry.

Interesting observation, and I had the similar thought when comparing the two.

A healthy Stephon Curry who plays defense? I'll take that.