Hollinger's 2012 Draft Rater

[redhotrox]

Interesting Insider read from a stats perspective...

It's possible that mere moments after David Stern hands off the Larry O'Brien Trophy to Micky Arison or Clay Bennett that he will be in Newark, N.J., announcing that the New Orleans Hornets are on the clock. The Finals are slated to end June 26 (or really, the morning of June 27 if you factor in the ceremony, the interviews, the analysis and all the responsibilities of the players and the league), and the NBA draft is on June 28. This is why we need to interrupt this riveting NBA Finals for a moment to talk about a bunch of 19-year-olds who have never played a professional game before. That's right: It's Draft Rater time. I've developed a tool that analyzes college stats to predict NBA performance and have refined it over the past several years. It's something we can use to help identify draft steals and busts. To review, last season was a pretty good one for the Rater. The 2011 pick with the top chance of success (Kyrie Irving) won Rookie of the Year, three other players it rated highly (Kawhi Leonard, Jon Leuer and Nikola Vucevic) provided great value for their draft position, and long-time favorite Daniel Green emerged as a starter on the West's best regular-season team. Meanwhile, the Rater was down on Jan Vesely, Josh Selby and Jimmer Fredette. The biggest whiff was on MarShon Brooks, whom it rated as a late second-rounder but was a solid late first-round pick by the Nets. The others were players nobody else rated highly either; Isaiah Thomas, for instance, was No. 57 on my board. It was probably too optimistic about Tristan Thompson as well; he had the highest raw rating of any player but struggled at times as a rookie. I made a few minor tweaks compared to a year ago -- most notably, I ditched the "Howland" variable, even though it was statistically significant, because it felt like an "overfit" (fitting the model to past results that may not necessarily be predictive) and I had enough significant variables without it. Otherwise, it's basically same as it ever was -- a giant regression model that gets incrementally smarter as we fill it with more data each year and one that I've segmented by position. It's still less predictive with one-and-done players, whom it sees less of statistically before they turn pro, and it's not perfect -- we're trying to project what 19-year-olds will be like at 25, a profoundly inexact science. Nonetheless, let's zoom back out to the big picture and go through the results from this year's Draft Rater, because I think you'll see that a few points remain paramount. 1. Anthony Davis is obviously the best player Good thing we came up with this neat model, because I don't know how we could have discerned this information otherwise. Yes, this is a one-star draft. Davis blew up my Draft Rater, as expected, but just as notable is the huge gap between him and the next place on the list. Davis rates several points ahead of every other player on the board. In fact, the difference between Davis and the No. 2-rated player, Jared Sullinger, is greater than the gap between Sullinger and No. 16 Bradley Beal. And Sullinger's rating comes with asterisks that don't afflict Davis. 2. Remember, we're projecting PER This gets extremely important when you look at the next few players that Draft Rater highlights and when you look back at some of the players Draft Rater has fawned over mistakenly in recent seasons. In each, you'll notice a huge propensity toward defensively lacking power forwards -- players like Michael Beasley, Charlie Villanueva and Tyrus Thomas, who had some of the best marks in recent seasons. That's not a failure of Draft Rater as much as a failure of what I've asked it to do: project NBA PER from college stats. It did that; Beasley, Villanueva and Thomas all have excellent career PER marks. They just aren't very good in spite of those numbers due to their defensive shortcomings and questions about their fit in the team concept. So let's take a closer look at two relatively short, stocky power forwards who are among the next names on the list: Sullinger and Draymond Green. Will these guys put up numbers? Very likely. Will they be able to guard their position? That is a much more open question and why they won't go as highly as Draft Rater places them. Green, in particular, is a massive defensive question mark. This applies to a lesser extent to the next several players. Terrence Jones and Royce White, who also has anxiety issues that may affect his draft position, are much more offensive players who are an inch short for the power forward spot, and Furkan Aldemir of Turkey -- who rates as a mid-first-rounder although he probably won't be taken until the middle of the second round -- has defensive shortcomings too. At least that makes it easy to pick out the second-best big man this year: Thomas Robinson of Kansas, who has no such defensive shortcomings and should be able to score effectively with his athleticism around the rim. Also warranting looks later in the lottery are two project-level bigs with more upside, especially at the defensive end: Andre Drummond and John Henson. Henson has a slightly higher rating, but as a 7-foot center, Drummond is virtually certain to be the higher pick. Finally, a sleeper among bigs is Henry Sims of Georgetown. He is not a great athlete and will struggle defensively, but he is a high skill guy who could be a second-round steal. Bigs: The Best Name/ College or Country/ Rating Anthony Davis/ Kentucky/ 22.23 Jared Sullinger/ Ohio State/ 16.86 Thomas Robinson/ Kansas/ 15.20 Draymond Green/ Michigan State/ 14.84 Terrence Jones/ Kentucky/ 14.28 Royce White/ Iowa State/ 14.07 Furkan Aldemir/ Turkey/ 12.87 John Henson/ North Carolina/ 12.11 Andre Drummond/ Connecticut/ 12.05 Henry Sims/ Georgetown/ 10.38 3. High-rated wings usually deliver As I noted with Leonard a year ago, wing players -- especially bigger ones -- with strong Draft Rater marks virtually never fail. Of the eight players to rate above 13 in the past decade, the worst among them was Josh Childress. Five of the players have played in an All-Star Game, and Rudy Gay may play in an All-Star Game soon. The seventh player is Leonard. This year, we have two names to add to that list: Dion Waiters and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Kidd-Gilchrist is probably the safest pick on the board -- a big wing who plays defense, has strong stats and comes with no character questions. From a risk-aversion perspective alone he should be a top-five pick; I have him third on my board after Robinson. (See below for how I would rank the prospects, regardless of their Draft Rater numbers.) I have Waiters fourth for similar reasons. His size, 6-foot-4, is more of a concern, but whatever team made him a promise did a wise thing. Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwyane Wade, and he'd be a steal if somebody got him in the Nos. 8-10 range currently being discussed. The other wing everybody is sleeping on is Quincy Miller of Baylor, who put up a strong mark despite coming off an ACL injury. He has more questions marks because of the knee and his bony build, but he is long and can score. The stories of him slipping have me baffled, because he rates as a top-10 pick. Two other wings who will be drafted highly don't rate as strongly: Beal and Harrison Barnes. Most players in their range turn out to be solid, but this part of the pool doesn't produce many stars. I'd be more comfortable taking these two in the later part of the lottery. Doron and Jeremy Lamb added to the perpetual confusion between the two by posting virtually the same rating, although this may be the only one that had Doron rated higher. Jeremy is likely to go 15 picks sooner given his higher ceiling, but Doron could be a great pickup in the late first or early second round as a Courtney Lee clone who hits 3s and defends. The other wing worth a first-round look is Memphis' Will Barton, whom most have slotted as a second-rounder and who rates as a nice sleeper. Perimeter Players: The Best Name/ College or Country/ Rating Dion Waiters/ Syracuse/ 14.12 Kendall Marshall/ North Carolina/ 13.84 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/ Kentucky/ 13.58 Marquis Teague/ Kentucky/ 13.18 Quincy Miller/ Baylor/ 12.94 Tony Wroten/ Washington/ 12.21 Bradley Beal/ Florida/ 11.65 Kostas Sloukas/ Greece/ 11.51 Harrison Barnes/ North Carolina/ 11.11 Will Barton/ Memphis/ 10.90 Doron Lamb/ Kentucky/ 10.65 Jeremy Lamb/ Connecticut/ 10.50 4. The point guard conundrum Point guard is the hardest position to draft because so much depends on improvement once the player turns pro. Unless it's an overwhelming talent such as Chris Paul or Irving, the smarter play is usually to draft this position late and hope for the best. This year, several point guards rate as first-round talents, and there is little to separate them. North Carolina's Kendall Marshall is the highest rated of the bunch and the safest pick, but he offers the least upside. Often compared to Mark Jackson because of his size, acumen and lack of athleticism, he is a solid mid-first-round pick. A poor man's version of Marshall might be Kostas Sloukas of Greece, who has solid translated Euroleague stats but will be a late second-rounder if he's drafted at all because of his questionable athleticism. On the other hand, Marquis Teague of Kentucky and Tony Wroten of Washington have talent to spare and star upside. The question is whether each can harness it. Teague was plagued by turnovers, especially early in the year, but he is an athletic scoring point guard in the mold of his older brother, the Atlanta Hawks' Jeff Teague. Wroten, meanwhile, is enormous for a point guard (6-6) and can really see the floor, but he can't shoot and has lots of character questions. Among Marshall, Wroten and Teague, it really is dealer's choice as to how much risk you're willing to take on for the reward. By the mid-first round I start liking Wroten's star potential quite a bit, but others may wish to play it more safely. 5. The rest of the bigs In the tail end of the first round and throughout the second, we're sorting through several big men with fairly weak Draft Rater résumés. The Rater is a particularly harsh judge at the center position, where it frowns on the prospects of four centers with first-round aspirations -- Tyler Zeller, Meyers Leonard, Fab Melo and Festus Ezeli -- and flat-out mocks Miles Plumlee, who is off-the-charts bad with a 2.49 Draft Rater projection. Plumlee aside, the other four are probably worthy of late first-round picks despite any misgivings, simply because size is such a rare commodity. Even if they can become just decent backup centers, taking them low in the first round makes sense. Two other 7-footers, Garrett Stutz of Wichita State and Robert Sacre of Gonzaga, shape up as solid second-rounders if we apply similar reasoning. At the power forward spot, Perry Jones III is rated several notches lower than most, while two other likely first-rounders, Andrew Nicholson and Arnett Moultrie, rate as second-round picks. Also of note is Croatian forward Leon Radosevic as a decent second-round value play. Bigs: The Rest Name/ College or Country/ Rating Perry Jones III/ Baylor/ 8.77 Leon Radosevic/ Croatia/ 8.77 JaMychal Green/ Alabama/ 8.73 Drew Gordon/ New Mexico/ 8.39 Tyler Zeller/ North Carolina/ 8.23 Andrew Nicholson/ St. Bonaventure/ 8.22 Quincy Acy/ Baylor/ 8.16 Fab Melo/ Syracuse/ 7.73 Garrett Stutz/ Wichita State/ 7.68 Mike Scott/ Virginia/ 7.50 Robert Sacre/ Gonzaga/ 7.37 Cameron Moore/ UAB/ 7.03 Meyers Leonard/ Illinois/ 7.02 Mitchell Watt/ Buffalo/ 6.77 Festus Ezeli/ Vanderbilt/ 6.54 Arnett Moultrie/ Mississippi State/ 6.42 6. Potential perimeter busts One player that Draft Rater isn't crazy about is Damian Lillard of Weber State, who compiled strong numbers but did so against a weak schedule and is much older than most of the prospects at his position. He not only failed to outrank the top point guards above but also rates behind the less-heralded Tyshawn Taylor of Kansas. No. 6 clearly seems a stretch for Lillard, who looks more like a mid-to-late first-rounder in this analysis. On the wings, a few potential first-rounders also fare poorly. Moe Harkless of St. John's had one of the worst ratings of any first-round prospect. While the error rate on one-and-done players has been higher, the difference between Harkless and the other lottery candidates is well outside the standard error of the Rater. In addition to Harkless, first-round prospects John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor of Vanderbilt fared poorly. Another first-round prospect from overseas, Evan Fournier of France, didn't play in the Euroleague this year and thus has no projection. Subjectively, I'm not sold on him -- he's basically a slashing scorer who isn't athletic enough to score that way in the NBA -- but he at least has the benefit of being only 19. One player gathering momentum is Kostas Papanikolaou of Greece, who shapes up as a solid second-round stash pick. Two other wing prospects -- Austin Rivers and Terrence Ross -- shape up about where we'd expect as mid-to-late first rounders, but after those two, the pool thins out quickly. A final sleeper to watch is Maryland point guard Terrell Stoglin, another guy who would make a great second-rounder. Perimeter Players: The Rest Name College/Country Rating Tyshawn Taylor/ Kansas/ 10.19 Austin Rivers/ Duke/ 9.85 Terrell Stoglin/ Maryland/ 9.82 Damian Lillard/ Weber State/ 9.75 Kostas Papanikolaou/ Greece/ 9.26 Terrence Ross/ Washington/ 9.12 Elias Harris/ Gonzaga/ 8.64 William Buford/ Ohio State/ 8.58 J'Covan Brown/ Texas/ 8.49 Jordan Taylor/ Wisconsin/ 8.19 Reggie Hamilton/ Oakland/ 8.18 Maalik Wayns/ Villanova/ 8.02 Hollis Thompson/ Georgetown/ 8.01 Tony Mitchell/ Alabama/ 7.91 Jae Crowder/ Marquette/ 7.90 Jared Cunningham /Oregon State/ 7.76 John Jenkins/ Vanderbilt/ 7.76 Khris Middleton/ Texas A&M/ 7.68 Scott Machado/ Iona/ 7.57 Tornike Shengelia/ Republic of Georgia/ 7.33 Moe Harkless/ St. John's/ 7.15 Tu Holloway/ Xavier/ 7.14 Orlando Johnson/ UC Santa Barbara/ 7.11 Darius Miller/ Kentucky/ 6.65 Jeffery Taylor/ Vanderbilt/ 6.59 7. Making my board Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls: 1. Anthony Davis 2. Thomas Robinson 3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 4. Dion Waiters 5. Andre Drummond 6. Quincy Miller 7. Jared Sullinger 8. Terrence Jones 9. John Henson 10. Royce White 11. Bradley Beal 12. Harrison Barnes 13. Tony Wroten 14. Kendall Marshall 15. Marquis Teague 16. Draymond Green 17. Jeremy Lamb 18. Damian Lillard 19. Austin Rivers 20. Doron Lamb 21. Furkan Aldemir 22. Will Barton 23. Tyler Zeller 24. Evan Fournier 25. Tyshawn Taylor 26. Meyers Leonard 27. Terrence Ross 28. Perry Jones 29. Festus Ezeli 30. Fab Melo 31. Kostas Sloukas 32. Henry Sims 33. Terrell Stoglin 34. Kostas Papanikolaou 35. Moe Harkless 36. Leon Radosevic 37. JaMychal Green 38. Andrew Nicholson 39. Drew Gordon 40. Garrett Stutz 41. Robert Sacre 42. Arnett Moultrie 43. Elias Harris 44. William Buford 45. Jae Crowder 46. Jared Cunningham 47. Jordan Taylor 48. John Jenkins 49. Orlando Johnson 50. Jeffrey Taylor 51. Quincy Acy 52. Maalik Wayns 53. Tornike Shengelia 54. Scott Machado 55. Mike Scott 56. J'Covan Brown 57. Reggie Hamilton 58. Khris Middleton 59. Tony Mitchell 60. Miles Plumlee

[Egghead]

draft Royce White

[iconoclastic]

I'm high on Quincy Miller as well.

[heypartner]

The Morris twins where 25 (marcus) and 27 (markieff) last year with DMo at 23.

[A_3PO]

I think Harrison Barnes is overrated by many, but putting his teammate John Henson in front of him is insane IMO. Beal is also way too low.

Can't wait for summer league.

[J.R.]

His 2011 big board:

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Tristan Thompson
4. Jonas Valuncianas
5. Kawhi Leonard
6. Enes Kanter
7. Kemba Walker
8. Tobias Harris
9. Alec Burks
10. Jordan Hamilton
11. Bismack Biyombo
12. Brandon Knight
13. Tyler Honeycutt
14. Jon Leuer
15. Nikola Vucevic
16. Chris Singleton
17. Jan Vesely
18. Klay Thompson
19. Norris Cole
20. Iman Shumpert
21. Nikola Mirotic
22. Jimmer Fredette
23. Donatas Motiejunas
24. Greg Smith
25. Marcus Morris
26. JaJuan Johnson
27. Markieff Morris
28. Davis Bertans
29. Kenneth Faried
30. Jeremy Tyler
31. Jordan Williams
32. Bojan Bogdanovic
33. Darius Morris
34. Giorgi Shermadini
35. Reggie Jackson
36. Rick Jackson
37. Brad Wanamaker
38. Damian Saunders
39. Nolan Smith
40. Malcolm Thomas
41. Travis Leslie
42. Trey Thompkins
43. Malcolm Lee
44. Charles Jenkins
45. Cory Joseph
46. E’Twaun Moore
47. Josh Selby
48. Jacob Pullen
49. Justin Harper
50. Jimmy Butler
51. Matt Howard
52. Jamie Skeen
53. Jereme Richmond
54. Keith Benson
55. D.J. Kennedy
56. Marshon Brooks
57. Isaiah Thomas
58. Andrew Goudelouck
59. Lavoy Allen
60. Shelvin Mack

[redhotrox]

Hollinger should look into ADVANCED STATS and DEFENSE a lot more when doing his big board compilations. Seems kind of silly to rank basketball players almost strictly by their PER rating. I still like reading those PER projections though -- I can better see why Morey may be high on Teague. Others are also rumored to like him as a great late value pick…

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein :

Many NBA people feel UK's Marquis Teague could be this draft's Rajon Rondo. Long term starting PG drafted in the early 20's. Not saying Marquis Teague plays like Rondo. Many believe though just like how Rondo was great value pick in low 20s,Teague will be similar.

[Egghead]

Originally Posted by redhotrox Hollinger should look into ADVANCED STATS and DEFENSE a lot more when doing his big board compilations. Seems kind of silly to rank basketball players almost strictly by their PER rating. I still like reading those PER projections though -- I can better see why Morey may be high on Teague. Others are also rumored to like him as a great late value pick… Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein :

Tony Wroten reminds me of a bigger version of Rondo

[Outlier]

Based on his last year, I think this thing is pretty legit. I mean you can't argue with the fact that his projections over the years for wings have mostly all been all-stars. This makes me want to research Dion Waiters now. Never seen him play. This makes me hope MKG slips to Cleveland, I want them to get a sure fire star.

[Outlier]

Well... just checked out a highlight of Dion. This guy is a MAN among boys. It felt like I was watching a real NBA player. I never felt that way when I was watching Beal or Barnes. This guy is going to be a star. He has handles, athleticism and everything. Even the spin move to the basket Kyrie Irving has. He definitely will be a steal for whoever picks him.

[Spacemoth]

Originally Posted by J.R. His 2011 big board: 1. Kyrie Irving 2. Derrick Williams 3. Tristan Thompson 4. Jonas Valuncianas 5. Kawhi Leonard 6. Enes Kanter 7. Kemba Walker 8. Tobias Harris 9. Alec Burks 10. Jordan Hamilton ...

No Parsons? Bad ranking system is bad.

[jtr]

Thank you for posting the article. It was a great read.

I saw Waiters a couple of times this year in Syracuse this year and the image that sticks in my mind of the guy 3+ feet off the floor at full speed surrounded by bigs in the lane who are just watching him. Teammates and opponents alike. That kind of player, while exciting to watch, just scares me to death.

Barnes - it is tough to tell about - when Marshal went down it did not look to me like he could create his own shot. But I only saw 3 games of his last season.


I have gotten into several (volatile) discussions about point guards recently. I like Teague better than Lilliard and Marshal, an opinion that can be quite unpopular.

Sully I think is ranked to high. He is Scola. Every time I watched him play I thought Scola.I can't figure out if he played better last year at 295 than he did this year at 270.

Anyway thanks for the post again. I am going to read it again.

[Garner]

Teague and Marshall a coin flip.

Interesting.

[mike_lu]

Greg Smith snuck in between D-Mo and Marcus Morris at 24 ...

[ObamaFan]

Originally Posted by redhotrox Hollinger should look into ADVANCED STATS and DEFENSE a lot more when doing his big board compilations. Seems kind of silly to rank basketball players almost strictly by their PER rating. I still like reading those PER projections though -- I can better see why Morey may be high on Teague. Others are also rumored to like him as a great late value pick… Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein :

I want Teague

[haoafu]

Hollinger put Damian Lillard at #18. I think his rater undervalues small school competition, and it shows in the way he undervalues Marshan Brooks last year.

I do like Quincy Miller and Tony Wroten(they are Durant clone and Tyreke clone IMO), especially when they can be had in late first round like draftexpress predicted. Those 2 have allstar potentials and may only have the same bust potential as some of the top picks.

[Haymitch]

Originally Posted by haoafu Hollinger put Damian Lillard at #18. I think his rater undervalues small school competition, and it shows in the way he undervalues Marshan Brooks last year. I do like Quincy Miller and Tony Wroten(they are Durant clone and Tyreke clone IMO), especially when they can be had in late first round like draftexpress predicted. Those 2 have allstar potentials and may only have the same bust potential as some of the top picks.

You must be talking about a different Durant. The only one I know is Kevin Durant, who averagred 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 spg, and 2 bpg on 47%/40%/81% as a freshman. And there's no way you would compare that to a guy who got 10 ppg, 5 rpg, .7 spg and .6 bpg on 44%/34%/81%.

So, please, tell me about this other Durant you must be speaking about.

[haoafu]

Originally Posted by Haymitch You must be talking about a different Durant. The only one I know is Kevin Durant, who averagred 26 ppg, 11 rpg, 2 spg, and 2 bpg on 47%/40%/81% as a freshman. And there's no way you would compare that to a guy who got 10 ppg, 5 rpg, .7 spg and .6 bpg on 44%/34%/81%. So, please, tell me about this other Durant you must be speaking about.

I'm talking about the size, handle&style. Obviously he's not Durant, otherwise he'll be the #1 pick. He's having a decent season off ACL injury, but has shown getting the athleticism back in the combine. He's a good value in late first round and ranked pretty high on Hollinger's rater.

[haoafu]

Originally Posted by redhotrox 7. Making my board Knowing everything we know, here is how my board looks heading into draft day. This is taking into account everything from the Draft Rater as well as what we know about the players' red flags, defensive pluses and minuses and one or two subjective calls: 1. Anthony Davis 2. Thomas Robinson 3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 4. Dion Waiters 5. Andre Drummond 6. Quincy Miller 7. Jared Sullinger 8. Terrence Jones 9. John Henson 10. Royce White 11. Bradley Beal 12. Harrison Barnes 13. Tony Wroten 14. Kendall Marshall 15. Marquis Teague 16. Draymond Green 17. Jeremy Lamb 18. Damian Lillard 19. Austin Rivers 20. Doron Lamb 21. Furkan Aldemir 22. Will Barton 23. Tyler Zeller 24. Evan Fournier 25. Tyshawn Taylor 26. Meyers Leonard 27. Terrence Ross 28. Perry Jones 29. Festus Ezeli 30. Fab Melo

I'm also high on Quincy Miller, Royce White and Tony Wroten, and they are currently listed as 20,23,31 on drafexpress mock draft.

Trade both 14&16 down to get late first rounders and "buy back" the pick obligation from Newjersy. Use the remaining to pick Quincy Miller, Royce White and Tony Wroten. All three have star potential. I believe they are the best values in the entire draft if we can get them in 20's or later.

[haoafu]

One more takeway from this: How ridiculously good Anthony Davis maybe.

Here's from last year's draft rater edition:

"The big man conundrum

As I noted above, the Draft Rater has been really solid on perimeter players. On interior players, the results have been a bit more scattered. The problem has been "false positives." It has picked out all the guys who could play; it has just picked out a lot of other guys along with them.

Top rated bigs, 2002-2011Player Rating
Kevin Love 20.78
Michael Beasley 18.36
Greg Oden 17.69
Tyrus Thomas 17.25
Blake Griffin 17.14
Andrew Bogut 16.90
DeMarcus Cousins 16.86
Michael Sweetney 16.70
Tristan Thompson 16.21
Curtis Borchardt 16.01
Derrick Williams 15.97
Greg Monroe 15.77
Jared Jeffries 15.65
Chris Bosh 15.57
Derrick Favors 15.51
"

Anthony Davis/ Kentucky/ 22.23

His model projects Davis to be significantly better than all those bigmen!