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Carl Herrera is offline Old 04-30-2012, 02:38 AM   #1
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Chad Ford has been using a "tier system," which he says several teams also use, to breakdown each draft for several years now. Here's a discussion with his article from last year with a good explanation of what it means: http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showthread...highlight=tier.


Basically, a drafter would look at where the "clear breaks" in perceived talent level is among the draft prospects and group similar level players into each tier. Picking among several players within the same tier, a team would consider team needs/fit. However, a team would not reach down a tier (or two) just to fill a need.

Of course, this is based on pre-draft perceptions and actual outcome would differ. For example, in 2010, the consensus seems to be that Wall is clearly #1, and the next tier would be Turner/Favors/Johnson/Cousin. Looking back at it, Greg Monroe (#7 pick) is far better than Wesley Johnson (and probably better than Evan Turner, though it's still early).

So, where do you think this year's tiers are? Here's my rough estimate:

Tier 1 (#1). Anthony Davis: Consensus #1. The team that wins the lotto is unlikely to want to trade down even a spot or 2 without considerable incentive.

Tier 2 (##2-5). MKG, Drummond, Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal

Tier 3 (## 6-9). Sullinger, Barnes, Perry Jones, Zeller

Tier 4 (##10-16). Henson, Terrence Jones, J. Lamb, Rivers, Marshall, Leonard, Lillard

Tier 5 (##17-20):. Q. Miller, T. Ross, Moultrie, Royce White

[Edited: Forgot Lillard initially]

Of course, this is just a guess. Other people will have different opinions and I'm sure thing will change over the course of the draft combine, workouts, etc.

Anyhow, I am thinking that, to the extent that the Rockets want to move up , they'll move up either within their same tier (up to 10th) or up by one tier (6th-9th, which has some of the more highly-touted college players). The availability of the picks of course depens on lotto results, but if things stay where they are, I am thinking Raptors at 8th, Detroit at 9th, Portland at 6th and 11th, Hornets at 10th are some of the possibilities.

I am also thinking that, to the extent that the Rockets want to move back from either 14th or 16th, the Celtics are a possible trade partner. They own the 21st and 22nd picks and I am thinking they might have a desire to draft a certain Duke guard currently projected at 16th by Draftexpress' mock draft. The Rockets probably doesn't need extra rookie bodies, but might think these two picks are a better asset than, say, the 16th alone. For what it's worth, Draftexpress has guys like Teague, Evan Fournier, Royce White and Moultrie listed as being possibly available in the 21st-22nd range.

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Last edited by Carl Herrera; 04-30-2012 at 07:11 AM.
 
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HMMMHMM is offline Old 04-30-2012, 06:30 AM   #2
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Life lesson of the day: Tier is German for animal.


Anyhow. I'd say as of right now the pre-draft perception tiers go like this:

Tier 1 (#1). Anthony Davis

Tier 2 (##2-5). MKG, Drummond, Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal

Tier 3 (## 6-7) Sullinger, Barnes

Tier 4 (## 8-14) Lillard, Perry Jones, Zeller, Henson, Terrence Jones, J. Lamb, Rivers, Marshall

Tier 5 (##15-...) Q. Miller, T. Ross, Royce White, Leonard, and possibly some other dudes

I feel like nobody loves Sullinger and Barnes, but there were once considered top-5 locks, so I don't see them slipping out of the top-7.
After #7, I feel like it's wide open. The bigs will probably go off the board a little earlier, but it sure wouldn't surprise me to see Henson or one of the Jones brothers slip to #13 or #14.

I actually think White could go in the late lottery (to the Rockets), but that might be more wishful thinking (YAY, another undersized PF ) on my part than reality.
 
freshstart is offline Old 04-30-2012, 07:24 AM   #3
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1 to 5 - Davis, Robinson, Gilchrist, Beal, Barnes

6 to 10 - Drummond, Sullinger, Zeller, Lamb, Lillard

11 to 15 - P.Jones, Henson, Marshall, Meyers, Rivers

16 to 20 - Ross, T.Jones, Moultrie, White, Wroten

 
jayhow92 is online now Old 04-30-2012, 08:08 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HMMMHMM View Post
Life lesson of the day: Tier is German for animal.


Anyhow. I'd say as of right now the pre-draft perception tiers go like this:

Tier 1 (#1). Anthony Davis

Tier 2 (##2-5). MKG, Drummond, Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal

Tier 3 (## 6-7) Sullinger, Barnes

Tier 4 (## 8-14) Lillard, Perry Jones, Zeller, Henson, Terrence Jones, J. Lamb, Rivers, Marshall

Tier 5 (##15-...) Q. Miller, T. Ross, Royce White, Leonard, and possibly some other dudes

I feel like nobody loves Sullinger and Barnes, but there were once considered top-5 locks, so I don't see them slipping out of the top-7.
After #7, I feel like it's wide open. The bigs will probably go off the board a little earlier, but it sure wouldn't surprise me to see Henson or one of the Jones brothers slip to #13 or #14.

I actually think White could go in the late lottery (to the Rockets), but that might be more wishful thinking (YAY, another undersized PF ) on my part than reality.
I like this one better
 
No Worries is offline Old 04-30-2012, 09:26 AM   #5
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Interesting.

If I were the NBA GM with the #8 pick, why would I trade with the Rockets for their #14 and #16?

For that trade to be made, I (the NBA GM with the #8 pick) would have to think that I was picking up two solid rotation players and only giving up a slight better rotation player. I would also not make the trade until the #14 pick was selected, so I would know who I get at 14 and the 1 of 2 players I would get at 16.

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rocketblaze is offline Old 04-30-2012, 01:28 PM   #6
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Based off of Chad Ford's tier system I would go with this:

Tier 1
Anthony Davis (#1)

Tier 2
Bradley Beal (3-5), Thomas Robinson(2-4), Andre Drummond(2-5), Quincy Miller(6-14), Jeremy Lamb(6-14)

Tier 3
Michael Kidd Gilchrist(3-6), Harrison Barnes(6-14), Jared Sullinger(6-14), Perry Jones(6-14), Damian Lillard (8-14), Tony Wroten(9-16), John Henson(8-14).

Tier 4
Tyler Zeller (10-14), Kendall Marshall (8-16), Arnett Moultrie(14-18), Austin Rivers(12-18), Terrence Jones(10-16), Meyers Leonard(12-16).

Tier 5
Royce White, Terrence Ross, Tyshawn Taylor, Jeff Taylor, Marquis Teague, Evan Fournier, Fab Melo

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Medicine N Music is offline Old 04-30-2012, 06:22 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rocketblaze View Post
Based off of Chad Ford's tier system I would go with this:

Tier 1
Anthony Davis (#1)

Tier 2
Bradley Beal (3-5), Thomas Robinson(2-4), Andre Drummond(2-5), Quincy Miller(6-14), Jeremy Lamb(6-14)

Tier 3
Michael Kidd Gilchrist(3-6), Harrison Barnes(6-14), Jared Sullinger(6-14), Perry Jones(6-14), Damian Lillard (8-14), Tony Wroten(9-16), John Henson(8-14).

Tier 4
Tyler Zeller (10-14), Kendall Marshall (8-16), Arnett Moultrie(14-18), Austin Rivers(12-18), Terrence Jones(10-16), Meyers Leonard(12-16).

Tier 5
Royce White, Terrence Ross, Tyshawn Taylor, Jeff Taylor, Marquis Teague, Evan Fournier, Fab Melo
This tier system is MONEY. I agree with almost every selection, especially the first 3 tiers.
 
coachbadlee is offline Old 04-30-2012, 10:04 PM   #8
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That tier system has been off for the past two years. I stopped paying attention. In 2010 they had Scottie Reynolds, Greivis Vasquez, Omar Samhan and Sylven Landesberg all in the higher tiers. They had players like Lin, Patterson and Sanders way low.

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Medicine N Music is offline Old 05-01-2012, 12:09 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachbadlee View Post
That tier system has been off for the past two years. I stopped paying attention. In 2010 they had Scottie Reynolds, Greivis Vasquez, Omar Samhan and Sylven Landesberg all in the higher tiers. They had players like Lin, Patterson and Sanders way low.
What do you mean? Nobody will be completely right on all accounts. It's like a mock draft where people evaluate players based on how they're projected.
 
coachbadlee is offline Old 05-01-2012, 12:21 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pharmacist View Post
What do you mean? Nobody will be completely right on all accounts. It's like a mock draft where people evaluate players based on how they're projected.
Givony's mock drafts have been the closest over that period of time. I have decided to stick with him from now on. It saves time on all the searching.

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Carl Herrera is offline Old 05-01-2012, 12:27 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by coachbadlee View Post
Givony's mock drafts have been the closest over that period of time. I have decided to stick with him from now on. It saves time on all the searching.
So you disagreement is not necessarily with a system with tiers, but rather with which tier Chad Ford put each player in.

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coachbadlee is offline Old 05-01-2012, 12:50 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Herrera View Post
So you disagreement is not necessarily with a system with tiers, but rather with which tier Chad Ford put each player in.
Okay, yeah thats it. The tier system is supposed to be an indication of dradfting order. Am i right?

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Joe Joe is offline Old 05-01-2012, 06:39 PM   #13
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Tier 1. Anthony Davis

Tier 2. MKG, Sullinger, Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal

Tier 2.5 Drummond....guy scares me as a high pick. see great things. See a lot of not great things.

Tier 3. Lilliard, Leonard, Barnes,

Tier 4. Perry Jones, Zeller, Henson, Marshall

Tier 5:. Terrence Jones, J. Lamb, Rivers

Agree generally with the tier system. I just don't think many are good with evaluating the tiers.

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acshen is offline Old 05-01-2012, 07:06 PM   #14
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My personal tiers:

1. Davis

2. Robinson, Sullinger, Beal

3. MKG, Henson, Rivers

4. Barnes, Zeller, Jones, Marshall, Drummond

5. Everyone else.

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I think he has some of the best star potential in the draft, only behind Thomas Robinson and Davis.
 
Painting_Shade is offline Old 05-01-2012, 07:59 PM   #15
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Quote:
I am also thinking that, to the extent that the Rockets want to move back from either 14th or 16th, the Celtics are a possible trade partner. They own the 21st and 22nd picks and I am thinking they might have a desire to draft a certain Duke guard currently projected at 16th by Draftexpress' mock draft. The Rockets probably doesn't need extra rookie bodies, but might think these two picks are a better asset than, say, the 16th alone. For what it's worth, Draftexpress has guys like Teague, Evan Fournier, Royce White and Moultrie listed as being possibly available in the 21st-22nd range.
I agree.

I think people are underrating zeller... but I do think he'll be drafted lower than his ability

My take (based on where I think they'll be drafted)

tier 1 (1) - Davis

tier 2 (2-4) - MKG / Beal / Drummond

tier 3 (5-8) - Robinson / Henson / P Jones / Barnes

tier 4 (9-12) - Zeller / Marshall / Sullinger / J Lamb

tier 5 (13-17) - Lillard / T Jones / Leonard / Miller / Moultrie

tier 6 (18-23) - Ross / Rivers / White / Wroten / Waiters / Harkless

tier 7 (24-30) - Melo / Fournier / Taylor / Ezeli / Barton / Teague / D Lamb

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meh is offline Old 05-01-2012, 09:54 PM   #16
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I think the tier system work at the top of the draft, maybe 10-15 deep depending on the draft. But after a while, players have so many weaknesses that it really depends on what the team look for in particular.

For example, DMo and Shumpert were taken 20th and 17th respectively. Sumpert was a defensive-minded 2-guard with size. DMo was a raw big with rebounding issues but scoring skills. How do you break up such players into tiers? You can't. Because you can't actually argue which is better unless you take into account team needs, roster, and other factors.
 
Commodore is offline Old 05-01-2012, 10:49 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meh View Post
d with size. DMo was a raw big with rebounding issues but scoring skills. How do you break up such players into tiers? You can't. Because you can't actually argue which is better unless you take into account team needs, roster, and other factors.
If you can't argue which player is better they go in the same tier. That's the idea.

Pick the player you need within the best remaining tier.
 

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