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Davis vs. Drummond: One Superstar and One JABGUY
Tags:  andre drummond, anthony davis, basketball, big boys, college, football, lottery, lsu, nba, nope, shaquille o'neal Tags
No Worries is offline Old 04-25-2012, 02:39 PM   #21
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Of course, all signs point to him being an anti-Morey player. So not holding my breath here.
DM did take a flier on Thabeet ... but ... that was via a trade and not the draft.

DM is more likely than not hoping someone blows their lottery pick on Drummond, so the Rockets have a better shot at DM's real targets.

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Mariachi ROCKET is offline Old 04-25-2012, 02:41 PM   #22
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ughhhhh, yea.....
 
No Worries is offline Old 04-25-2012, 02:50 PM   #23
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That's why he's a top 5 pick. It's not a wasted pick even if he doesn't get much better on offense, but he has a shot to become a special player.
My best guess is that Drummond has about 20% chance of becoming a HoF 5.

The other side of the coin is that there is an 80% chance that some team will waste 20 large and will get four years of hand wringing.

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Last edited by No Worries; 04-25-2012 at 04:02 PM.
 
CCorn is offline Old 04-25-2012, 02:52 PM   #24
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I just see Thabeet v2. But hey I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see another dominating big guy in the league.

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HI Mana is offline Old 04-25-2012, 03:25 PM   #25
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Howard was also 18 years-old when he started in the NBA and averaged 12/10 as a rookie. Drummond won't even sniff that. It might take him 3 years to average a double-double.

You said in another post he will start out as a solid role-player. Be prepared for disappointment. As a rookie, the guy is going to be a project. Maybe for a couple of years after that.

While I think it's very unlikely Drummond will be like Thabust, he seems much more raw than I remember Howard as a rookie. I say he's worth a reach high in the 1st round even though he may not be worth a dime until his rookie contract nears expiration.
I think your timeline is probably pretty accurate. Andrew Bynum came into the league and averaged 1.6 ppg, and shot 30% from the FT line; it took him 3 years to average a double-double in 39 games, and it took him 7 years before he averaged a double-double in a full season.

Heck, even if his offense never comes around, he still profiles favorably next to Bismack Biyombo, or DeAndre Jordan. He had a bunch of flashes this year where he did "big-man" things that are only possible by super-athletic true centers. I definitely wouldn't take him over Davis, but I can't count him out just yet.
 
ktbballplaya is offline Old 04-25-2012, 04:12 PM   #26
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Andrew bynum was very raw but he got the proper training and was surrounded with winners.
 
OremLK is offline Old 04-25-2012, 04:18 PM   #27
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He is not at all like Thabeet. Drummond is already a defensive force. He has solid fundamentals, doesn't foul much, blocks shots, doesn't get backed down, boxes guys out.

Drummond is not just raw tools. He has some great skills already, they just don't show up on the stat sheet.
 
coachbadlee is offline Old 04-25-2012, 05:18 PM   #28
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ughhhhh, yea.....
yea, ughhhhhh.......
 
A_3PO is offline Old 04-25-2012, 05:39 PM   #29
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I just see Thabeet v2. But hey I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see another dominating big guy in the league.
Seriously, what are the chances Drummond quits when the ink is dry like Thabust? The guy has a pulse and will improve over time. To what extent is the question. Thabust was a dead corpse on draft day who's been in decay ever since. Very few players are nuclear flamouts to that extent.

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I think your timeline is probably pretty accurate. Andrew Bynum came into the league and averaged 1.6 ppg, and shot 30% from the FT line; it took him 3 years to average a double-double in 39 games, and it took him 7 years before he averaged a double-double in a full season.

Heck, even if his offense never comes around, he still profiles favorably next to Bismack Biyombo, or DeAndre Jordan. He had a bunch of flashes this year where he did "big-man" things that are only possible by super-athletic true centers. I definitely wouldn't take him over Davis, but I can't count him out just yet.
The difference between Drummond and Bynum is he has much less skill and fewer instincts on offense. Bynum was a string bean who couldn't hold his ground but he demonstrated flashes as a rookie. In his 2nd year, he showed me enough that I got on the bandwagon early. All he needed was to add weight and dominance was inevitable. If Bynum was on a lesser team and didn't have another big post player and the most prolific perimeter shooter in the NBA, he might be 25/15 this year.

Your last statement depends on one's opinion about Deandre Jordan and Bismack Biyombo. I don't think much of either guy.

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cooliobob is offline Old 04-25-2012, 05:57 PM   #30
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I think Drummond is far more comparable to a Greg Oden than Dwight Howard. He certainly needs more polish on the offensive end, but he is a special type of athlete. You don't really see guys with his size and strength combined with his mobility. I would say he is a more coordinated version of Greg Oden (far less injury prone) and much like Amare Stoudemire when he first entered the league. While he isn't as talented as Anthony Davis, he can be more than a serviceable in this league. As far as centers are concerned, there really aren't that many great centers in the league and he already has a head start as far as his athleticism and coordination is concerned.

I think the player with the greatest upside in this draft aside from Davis is Perry Jones. His combination of size and skill is pretty rare, however, he could just end up like Anthony Randolph because he does in a way lack that killer instinct that the superstars in the NBA have, but the kid definitely has talent and if he were to fall into the middle of the 1st round, I think the Rockets need to take a shot at him.
 
Nook is offline Old 04-25-2012, 06:31 PM   #31
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No way he's the second most talented player in this draft. Size is one thing. Talent is another.
You are right, Drummond is the physically gifted player in this draft and has the highest ceiling. I would take Davis because he is mentally stronger and works his butt off... But Drummond will be the 2nd name called on draft night.
 
MD_in_Training is offline Old 04-26-2012, 04:15 AM   #32
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You are right, Drummond is the physically gifted player in this draft and has the highest ceiling. I would take Davis because he is mentally stronger and works his butt off... But Drummond will be the 2nd name called on draft night.
Davis' superiority goes far beyond his mental toughness and work ethic. Davis has attributes to his game that you can't teach. He's lightning quick off his feet and has tremendous timing on blocked shots. He also possesses perimeter and guard skills that most big men would have a hard time dreaming about. Drummond may be bigger and stronger, but I don't think that necessarily makes him the more physically gifted prospect of the two.
 
cooliobob is offline Old 04-26-2012, 05:36 AM   #33
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Davis' superiority goes far beyond his mental toughness and work ethic. Davis has attributes to his game that you can't teach. He's lightning quick off his feet and has tremendous timing on blocked shots. He also possesses perimeter and guard skills that most big men would have a hard time dreaming about. Drummond may be bigger and stronger, but I don't think that necessarily makes him the more physically gifted prospect of the two.

I think what Nook is trying to say is that Drummond is the greater athlete; which is true, in the sense that Drummond is more physically imposing, runs faster, and jumps higher. Drummond may be a better athlete, but he is NOT a more gifted basketball player. Perimeter skills/guard skills are attributes that can be learned, just like timing on your jump for blocks can be trained. Davis may not be the better athlete, but he is the more skilled player.

From a potential standpoint, Drummond has an advantage in that he is already a more superior athlete, but he is still far from touching Davis skill- wise, as Davis is light years ahead in that department. It all depends on how much work Drummond is willing to put in. In my opinion, the player with the highest ceiling in the draft is Perry Jones, but again, having potential and REALIZING your potential are two different things.
 
bullardfan is offline Old 04-26-2012, 06:14 AM   #34
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Well, chances of us getting Davis is slim to none. I hope Drummond's stock takes a hit. We could definitely use him.

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HI Mana is offline Old 04-26-2012, 03:36 PM   #35
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The difference between Drummond and Bynum is he has much less skill and fewer instincts on offense. Bynum was a string bean who couldn't hold his ground but he demonstrated flashes as a rookie. In his 2nd year, he showed me enough that I got on the bandwagon early. All he needed was to add weight and dominance was inevitable. If Bynum was on a lesser team and didn't have another big post player and the most prolific perimeter shooter in the NBA, he might be 25/15 this year.

Your last statement depends on one's opinion about Deandre Jordan and Bismack Biyombo. I don't think much of either guy.
The chances of Drummond actually becoming comparable to Bynum on the offensive end are about as good as the Rockets' chances of actually getting a chance to draft him, but again, you said that you saw flashes in Bynum's second year; shouldn't you wait for Drummond to get the same amount of experience under his belt before rushing to judgement? The flashes he showed on defense were incredible; both in how he was able to avoid foul trouble, as well as how he had a good talent for keeping the ball in bounds after blocks. Heck, Jim Calhoun has been secretly really bad at getting his guys ready to play in the pros; compare his record to Coach K lately.

I'm not a huge fan of Biyombo or Jordan either, but they still are valuable NBA players whom the Rockets would kill for right now. A guy with Drummond's frame, athleticism and coordination probably only has to tap 30-40% of his potential to be a starter on a contender.

Just because Anthony Davis threw out the book on the normal development of a freshman big doesn't mean that Drummond is going to be bad, or that he's not going to be worthy of a top pick; it just means Davis is going to be really good.
 
A_3PO is offline Old 04-27-2012, 04:16 PM   #36
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The chances of Drummond actually becoming comparable to Bynum on the offensive end are about as good as the Rockets' chances of actually getting a chance to draft him, but again, you said that you saw flashes in Bynum's second year; shouldn't you wait for Drummond to get the same amount of experience under his belt before rushing to judgement? The flashes he showed on defense were incredible; both in how he was able to avoid foul trouble, as well as how he had a good talent for keeping the ball in bounds after blocks. Heck, Jim Calhoun has been secretly really bad at getting his guys ready to play in the pros; compare his record to Coach K lately.

I'm not a huge fan of Biyombo or Jordan either, but they still are valuable NBA players whom the Rockets would kill for right now. A guy with Drummond's frame, athleticism and coordination probably only has to tap 30-40% of his potential to be a starter on a contender.

Just because Anthony Davis threw out the book on the normal development of a freshman big doesn't mean that Drummond is going to be bad, or that he's not going to be worthy of a top pick; it just means Davis is going to be really good.
Having a current opinion isn't the same as rushing to judgement. Just like with Bynum, if Drummond shows more promise in the NBA, I'll acknowledge it. I gave Bynum a thumbs up early his 2nd season, but Kobe trashed him in a video AFTER his 2nd season. It took his own teammate longer to realize where Bynum was headed.

At this moment, Drummond looks like the Kandi Man to me. If he turns out to be a hard worker and ends up as much better, props to him. I'm with you he's worth a top 5-6 pick.

Let me throw this out there: Over the years, how many big Cs that came into the NBA as projects (unskilled and basically worthless as rookies) became impact players? Not superstars, impact players.

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dharocks is offline Old 04-27-2012, 04:54 PM   #37
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It's funny. I'm willing to bet that if Drummond spent 3 more years at UConn, he'd enter the 2015 draft as a no-doubt, generational-type big. He's so young, not even 19 yet, and you can't teach those tools.

He's not ready though. Not even close.

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prs325 is offline Old 05-06-2012, 08:30 PM   #38
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so given the fact that we desperately need a center and how we may make a run at Roy Hibbert inspite of his restricted status, how does Drummond compare to when Hibbert was in college? Or Thabeet? Even Fab Melo?

Besides work ethic and love for the sport, what separates those four players because one could either end up being good (Hibbert) or bad (Thabeet).
 
dharocks is offline Old 05-06-2012, 08:47 PM   #39
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I watch a lot of Big East basketball. Hibbert was rather slow, uncoordinated and mechanical in college. And we wasn't terribly assertive. He seemed to get himself in foul trouble a lot IIRC. He got by on sheer size early on, and slowly got better and more refined, which sort of mirrors his NBA career.

Thabeet was just huge. Calhoun would stick him in the bottom of a zone and let him guard the rim. He never looked like much of an offensive prospect. I didn't think he'd be this bad at the NBA level.

Fab has size and athleticism, but he doesn't seem to have a great feel for the game. He got a lot better from where he was last year, but he's definitely a project.

None of those guys possess Drummond's overwhelming athleticism. That said, he was a major disappointment this year. Not nearly as polished as I expected and didn't seem to want the ball, despite his physical advantages. He needs a lot of work, and I would love to see him spend three more years in school.

All that being said, if there's any way that we can somehow get him, we absolutely need to go for it. Have him work with McHale on everything -- establishing position, sealing the defender, basic footwork, fundamentals, and there's a chance that he could be one of those big man projects that actually works out. He's still very young.

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dje243 is offline Old 05-06-2012, 11:11 PM   #40
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Take Sullinger.

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