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Something I Never Really Understood...
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AstroMechPLZ is offline Old 04-17-2012, 09:41 PM   #1
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Why do people, when pointing out efficient scoring, always say a player scored X points on Y shots, while completely ignoring how many FTAs they had? There's a big difference between someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 0 FTAs versus someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 20 FTAs - FTAs use up possessions too.
 
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DaDakota is offline Old 04-17-2012, 09:49 PM   #2
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Shhhh......oh, no...it's too late for the stat geeks !



DD

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Shaud is offline Old 04-17-2012, 09:49 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaDakota View Post
Shhhh......oh, no...it's too late for the stat geeks !



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VBG is offline Old 04-17-2012, 09:51 PM   #4
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You should look at points per possession.

So you see free throws, and 1s, threes, twos, turnovers

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robbie380 is online now Old 04-17-2012, 10:13 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaDakota View Post
Shhhh......oh, no...it's too late for the stat geeks !



DD
DD your anti intellectualism is cute.

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Quote:
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robbie380 is online now Old 04-17-2012, 10:23 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstroMechPLZ View Post
Why do people, when pointing out efficient scoring, always say a player scored X points on Y shots, while completely ignoring how many FTAs they had? There's a big difference between someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 0 FTAs versus someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 20 FTAs - FTAs use up possessions too.
Yeah FTs use up possessions, but FTs are extremely efficient. If you shoot 80% from the line that's the equivalent of shooting 80% from 2 point land. So yeah it's a bit lazy if someone says it how you said it, but it's kind of understood FTAs will likely use a possession.

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Air Langhi is offline Old 04-17-2012, 11:00 PM   #7
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Lookup ts% it takes free throws into account.
 
rocketkid713 is offline Old 04-17-2012, 11:06 PM   #8
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?????
 
RedRedemption is offline Old 04-17-2012, 11:52 PM   #9
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Free throw attempts accomplish two things:
Most likely send a over-70% free throw shooter to the line.
Force the other team to commit a foul and possibly put someone into foul trouble.

... Also, stoppage of play prevents there from being any defensive consequences.

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HTown_TMac is offline Old 04-18-2012, 12:28 AM   #10
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if im not mistaken, thats the point..

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Shroopy2 is offline Old 04-18-2012, 01:47 AM   #11
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*EDITED:* oops, didnt read the previous comments right. Repeating everyone's point again -*

1) A player makes 10/20 shots. Hits 5 threes. Makes 0/0 FTS.
- Thats 25 points in 20 shots

2) A player takes 5/10 shots. Hits 0 threes. Makes 15/20 FTS.
- thats 25 points in just 10 shots!

Thats annoyed me as well. We know that Kevin Martin for example is eating up much more possesions than his "20 points on 8 shots" lines)

STILL: 15/20 free throws is still better than most shooting percentages. That's equivalent to 7/10 FG with 1 three pointer. We darn well know teams can't do that even for ONE game yet alone a full season

So you still need 3 pointers and free throws to get more "bang for possession buck" than just trying to make a high degree of 2 pointers.

Last edited by Shroopy2; 04-18-2012 at 08:40 AM.
 
Jontro is online now Old 04-18-2012, 01:59 AM   #12
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FTA doesn't count as efficiency because it's for little girls.

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Shroopy2 is offline Old 04-18-2012, 02:07 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RedRedemption View Post
Free throw attempts accomplish two things:
Most likely send a over-70% free throw shooter to the line.
Force the other team to commit a foul and possibly put someone into foul trouble.

... Also, stoppage of play prevents there from being any defensive consequences.
Defensive consequences like you mentioned with free throws and with threes was was an underrated defense aspect of Phil Jackson's teams. The approach was to NOT send guys to the foul line and PREVENT 3 POINTERS. (Have teams try to beat them making 2's)

Quote:
Phil Jackson's defensive strategy is statistically approved

--

Since their 2008 NBA Finals defeat, the Lakers have worked hard to become a better defensive team. They learned their lesson at the hands of the Celtics: an elite defense is required to be in the championship conversation. Since then, they ranked 6th with 104.7 points per 100 possessions allowed in 08-09, and 4th with 103.7 in 09-10, and both numbers would be lower if not for the annual regular season effort slump, a slump which has hit even earlier this season. This year, despite a weak start defensively, the Lakers have quietly improved their defensive performance, and though their league ranking seems far worse (currently 11th), the actual number (104.8 points per 100) is right in line with what we've grown accustomed to.

But how have the Lakers improved? The answer provides a bit of a surprise
. After all, the Lakers are led by coach Phil Jackson, whose brand of Zen blends classic old school basketball with counterculture psychology. However, the Lakers' biggest areas of defensive improvement show that PJ has a bit more of Daryl Morey in him than anybody gives him credit for, because the areas in which the Lakers have improved the most defensively would make any stathead proud.


Stats guys will tell you that the most efficient (ergo, the best) shots in basketball are free throws and three pointers. It's pretty simple math. The league average for two point shots this season is currently 48.2%. For threes, it's 36.1%, and for free throws, 75.9%. If you multiply these percentages by their respective point values, you can see that the best possible use of a possession is to get to the free throw line. A free-throw possession uses at least two free throws (there are situations in which only one free throw is taken, but none of these situations involves the use of a possession), so on average, a possession used with free throws will garner 1.52 points. With a three point shot, the average possession brings in 1.08 points. The average possession with a two point shot only earns 0.97 points.

--

You'll never guess the two areas in which the Lakers excel defensively.... limiting free throws and three pointers. Over the past three years, the Lakers have been amongst the best in the league in both categories. In 2008-09, they ranked 3rd in three point defense and 6th in free throws allowed per field goal attempt. Last season, it was 1st and 2nd respectively. This year they are once again ranked 2nd in free throws allowed, but have "fallen" to 6th again in three point defense. Ironically, this is almost entirely the Suns' doing. Without last night's contest and the Suns victory in Staples Center, the Lakers 3 pt % defense would be better than it was last season..

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robbie380 is online now Old 04-18-2012, 03:11 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shroopy2 View Post
Defensive consequences like you mentioned with free throws and with threes was was an underrated defense aspect of Phil Jackson's teams. The approach was to NOT send guys to the foul line and PREVENT 3 POINTERS. (Have teams try to beat them making 2's)

Quote:
Phil Jackson's defensive strategy is statistically approved

--

Since their 2008 NBA Finals defeat, the Lakers have worked hard to become a better defensive team. They learned their lesson at the hands of the Celtics: an elite defense is required to be in the championship conversation. Since then, they ranked 6th with 104.7 points per 100 possessions allowed in 08-09, and 4th with 103.7 in 09-10, and both numbers would be lower if not for the annual regular season effort slump, a slump which has hit even earlier this season. This year, despite a weak start defensively, the Lakers have quietly improved their defensive performance, and though their league ranking seems far worse (currently 11th), the actual number (104.8 points per 100) is right in line with what we've grown accustomed to.

But how have the Lakers improved? The answer provides a bit of a surprise. After all, the Lakers are led by coach Phil Jackson, whose brand of Zen blends classic old school basketball with counterculture psychology. However, the Lakers' biggest areas of defensive improvement show that PJ has a bit more of Daryl Morey in him than anybody gives him credit for, because the areas in which the Lakers have improved the most defensively would make any stathead proud.


Stats guys will tell you that the most efficient (ergo, the best) shots in basketball are free throws and three pointers. It's pretty simple math. The league average for two point shots this season is currently 48.2%. For threes, it's 36.1%, and for free throws, 75.9%. If you multiply these percentages by their respective point values, you can see that the best possible use of a possession is to get to the free throw line. A free-throw possession uses at least two free throws (there are situations in which only one free throw is taken, but none of these situations involves the use of a possession), so on average, a possession used with free throws will garner 1.52 points. With a three point shot, the average possession brings in 1.08 points. The average possession with a two point shot only earns 0.97 points.

--

You'll never guess the two areas in which the Lakers excel defensively.... limiting free throws and three pointers. Over the past three years, the Lakers have been amongst the best in the league in both categories. In 2008-09, they ranked 3rd in three point defense and 6th in free throws allowed per field goal attempt. Last season, it was 1st and 2nd respectively. This year they are once again ranked 2nd in free throws allowed, but have "fallen" to 6th again in three point defense. Ironically, this is almost entirely the Suns' doing. Without last night's contest and the Suns victory in Staples Center, the Lakers 3 pt % defense would be better than it was last season..

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Chandler is the best lubricant in the team
 
TexAg713 is offline Old 04-18-2012, 05:42 AM   #15
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And I don't want to coach at the college level, they don't pay enough on average to interest me, nor do I want to deal with recruiting etc.

Doesn't mean I couldn't coach, I firmly believe I could, but just means I choose not to pursue it, because it doesn't interest me as much.
 
jopatmc is offline Old 04-18-2012, 06:12 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shroopy2 View Post
Defensive consequences like you mentioned with free throws and with threes was was an underrated defense aspect of Phil Jackson's teams. The approach was to NOT send guys to the foul line and PREVENT 3 POINTERS. (Have teams try to beat them making 2's)

There's one factoid missing here. It's a lot easier to limit free throws and defend the 3-point line when you have 2, count 'em 2, of the longest tallest, most talented big men in the game for major minutes at the same time. That means you can defend the paint effectively without fouling and that also means you can tighten up the perimeter because you've got two gobstoppers in the paint when opponents dive to the paint for layups.

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Shroopy2 is offline Old 04-18-2012, 09:00 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jopatmc View Post
There's one factoid missing here. It's a lot easier to limit free throws and defend the 3-point line when you have 2, count 'em 2, of the longest tallest, most talented big men in the game for major minutes at the same time. That means you can defend the paint effectively without fouling and that also means you can tighten up the perimeter because you've got two gobstoppers in the paint when opponents dive to the paint for layups.
Yes, do agree.

The article does mention that its not JUST those elements that makes a defense decent. Just that its notable for PJ's Lakers defenses

Quote:
None of this is to say there is nothing to worry about defensively for the team, but I do find it interesting that even as we've observed them struggling, they are still doing well in the areas that are clearly a defensive focus. The areas in which the Lakers have fallen off (defensive rebounding, which allows the other team extra shots, and interior defense) are no more or less fixable than the areas in which they are still performing strong. But I guess I do take some small solace in the fact that the areas in which the Lakers are getting beat defensively are the areas in which they have chosen to get beat. I take much greater solace in the fact that the return of Andrew Bynum very clearly provides needed assistance to all the team's defensive weaknesses, and it's no coincidence that the Lakers have improved defensively since Bynum's return.
Back to the OP's statement -

Quote:
Why do people, when pointing out efficient scoring, always say a player scored X points on Y shots, while completely ignoring how many FTAs they had?

There's a big difference between someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 0 FTAs versus someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 20 FTAs - FTAs use up possessions too.
Good question.

Like others have said, thats where you factor in true shooting and points-per possession to "tidy up" those lines. Those arent clean box score stats. I don't think free throws are TOTALLY ignored, just its saying "15 points but with how many free throws?" is similarly NOT a simple way of looking at scoring either.

All in all, it still is good to have some reliable TWO point makers. Cuz, as with Kevin Martin again, he has to get his points in the ebb and flow of the game. When you NEED to draw up a play, you can't strategically RELY on a referee whistle.
 
VBG is offline Old 04-18-2012, 09:02 AM   #18
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The Spurs defense is built on the same principle.

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durvasa is offline Old 04-18-2012, 09:26 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AstroMechPLZ View Post
Why do people, when pointing out efficient scoring, always say a player scored X points on Y shots, while completely ignoring how many FTAs they had? There's a big difference between someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 0 FTAs versus someone scoring 15 points on 10 shots and 20 FTAs - FTAs use up possessions too.
That's why true shooting percentage takes into account free throw attempts. On average, each free throw attempt is the equivalent of 0.44 extra "shots". Hence, the formula;

ts% = 0.5 * PTS / (FGA + 0.44 * FTA)
 

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