Hollinger Player Analysis

redhotrox · Nov 9, 2011

We mostly know about our players, but Hollinger has some nice tidbits and stats in there worth reading.

Starters:

Kyle Lowry

+ Tough, aggressive guard who pressures ball and defends. Loves taking charges.

+ Likes to push tempo but can get out of control. Mediocre outside shooter.

+ Good athlete who draws fouls. On the short side. Good rebounder for size.

A tough little son-of-a-gun, Lowry got hosed in the All-Defense voting. He got just two second-place votes; in contrast, Russell Westbrook got four first-place votes and five seconds-place nods. So nine of 30 coaches (or, more accurately, PR directors) thought Westbrook was a better defender than Lowry this past season. That's indefensible.

Lowry also showed improved play at the offensive end, finally taking over the starting gig from Aaron Brooks after spending his first four seasons backing up inferior players in Memphis and Houston. He made a surprising 37.6 percent of his 3s, and while we should expect some regression (his three previous seasons were all in the mid-20s, and he shot only 30 percent on long 2s), he does enough other positives to still be a quality starter.

For instance, Lowry was ninth in the NBA in pure point rating and ranked in the upper half of point guards in every category except usage rate and free throw shooting. He's not a pure shot creator and that limits his star potential, but he has a reasonable contract and is very solid at both ends.

Kevin Martin

+ Lethal scorer with penchant for drawing fouls. Quick, but average handle.

+ Has odd, left-leaning release but very accurate and great shot fake.

+ Brutal defender. Lacks strength and intensity. Runs funny. Has been injury-prone.

The walking advertisement for true shooting percentage got his mark back over 60, marking the fifth time in six seasons he's done so. That was good enough for third among shooting guards, and as usual it was 3s and free throws that got him there. Martin's 43.6 shooting percentage is nothing to write home about -- it's actually barely above the median for shooting guards.

But he led all shooting guards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt at 0.53, and he made 88.8 percentage of his free throws. Plus, he shot 38.3 percent on 3-pointers. Between those two items he had the second-best secondary percentage at his position; among high-usage players of any stripe, only Chauncey Billups outranked him.

Martin added quantity to his quality, averaging 28.8 points per 40 minutes -- that would be more than Dwyane Wade, or any other shooting guard whose first name doesn't end in "obe." He wasn't near the top of the scoring charts because he played only 32.5 minutes per game. That approach seems a bit puzzling, but it did at least keep him fresh -- wracked by injuries the previous three seasons, Martin played in 80 games in 2010-11.

As good as he is on offense, Martin is nearly just as bad on defense. He has a slight build and post players just murder him, even the ones who don't normally post up. Denver, for example, posted up Arron Afflalo against him on three of its first four plays one game before the Rockets finally threw up their hands and switched to a zone. Phoenix did the same thing with a near-dead Vince Carter. Martin's Synergy and on-court vs. off-court numbers both support that point, while his regularized adjusted plus-minus numbers suggest he's one of the league's worst defensive players of the past half decade. Needless to say, it's necessary to pair him with a quality defender who can guard the tough wing players.

Chase Budinger

+ Athletic, high-scoring wing can shoot off screens and finish at basket.

+ Good leaper, excellent size. Struggles shooting off catch. Mediocre motor.

Budinger overcame a very slow start to finish with numbers that essentially mirrored his rookie campaign. The big surprise was that Budinger shot only 32.5 percent on 3s, a development related to his struggles in catch-and-shoot situations. On the move he was more accurate, but his real strength is at the rim.

Budinger shot 66.7 percent in the basket area, many of them highlight-reel dunks, and did well attacking the cup off curls. His secret was that he got so many of them the easy way -- 75.9 percent of his at-rim baskets were assisted, the most of any perimeter player, with many of them being alley-oops.

Budinger rarely tries in-between shots or uses his size to post up; his repertoire is 3s, long 2s and dunks. His ballhandling numbers were very solid, too, as he ranked 11th among small forwards in pure point rating and had the 10th-lowest turnover rate.

Defensively, Budinger doesn't look like much but his statistics last season were dramatically improved over his rookie campaign -- both his Synergy stats and his on-court vs. off-court differential were very solid, and according to 82games.com opposing small forwards had a 12.7 PER against him. I think those numbers overrate him, but sometimes long defenders are better than they look, and Budinger tends to lay off opponents and let his length and leaping ability do the work. He lacks strength and nobody will confuse him with Bruce Bowen, but if he maintains last season's numbers he's a very solid two-way player.

Luis Scola

+ Skillful, physical left-block post scorer who loves to turn over left shoulder.

+ Average athlete and a bit undersized. Good midrange set shot. Tough.

+ Mediocre defender. Really struggles against perimeter 4s. Won't block shots.

A rare exception to the rule that short power forwards hit the wall in their late 20s, Scola had his best season at age 30, blowing up for 22.4 points per 40 minutes behind an assortment of low-post flips and feints. Despite turning over his left shoulder nearly every time, Scola keeps defenders off balance with his quick fakes and half-spins, often slipping shots under a defender's arm at the far side of the basket.

Scola got a lot more defensive attention as the season went on; at first he struggled with double-teams, but he improved over time. For a post player, however, he draws surprisingly few fouls; he was just 46th among power forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, so his TS percentage is nothing special.

Defensively, Scola is very good on the boards but struggles otherwise. He'll take bad gambles on post entries and doesn't block shots. Perimeter 4s challenge his mobility and give him fits when he tries to recover after helping on a dribbler. He's tough and will battle physical opponents to a draw, but he's out there for his offense.

Chuck Hayes

+ Ace post defender who is physical and quick. Can guard any spot on floor.

+ Terrible foul shooter with bad hitch in stroke. Good passer. Only shoots layups.

+ Solid rebounder but a below-rim player. High-character guy. Great toughness.

It's amazing that Hayes is such a good defensive center at just 6-6. He's immovable in the post because of his strength, plus he uses his lack of height as an advantage by getting underneath opponents and using leverage against them. And despite lacking size, he had one of the lowest foul rates at his position. But Hayes is quick for his size and knows what he's doing out there, so his pick-and-roll coverage is exquisite, and despite playing below the rim he has a respectable rebound rate for a 5.

Offensively, he's had a harder time, but last season he found enough layups that he finished with a top-20 PER at his position -- despite getting his shot blocked on a staggering 15.9 percent of his attempts (see Emeka Okafor comment). No, he can't finish in traffic, but he moved so well off the ball last season that he still scored at a solid clip.

Hayes has made himself comfortable dishing from the high post, ranking second among centers in pure point rating, and hit a career-high 66.2 percent from the line. His field goal percentage looks like a fluke, accounting for much of his PER spike, and he'll be hard-pressed to repeat it. Nonetheless, he's made himself a valuable performer despite giving up half a foot to many opponents.
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redhotrox · Nov 9, 2011

Bench:

Goran Dragic

+ Aggressive, left-handed score-first point guard. Hugely turnover prone.

+ Odd, inconsistent release off shoulder. Goes left almost every time.

+ Great size for position. Good athlete. Decent defender but fouls too much.

Dragic took a major step backward after his breakout 2009-10 season, overcome by a rash of turnovers and the fact that he went from playing with four good shooters around him to zero. That includes himself -- he was at 27.7 percent on 3s when the Suns traded him to Houston; he shot 51.9 percent as a Rocket to revive his overall average, but his funky release won't remind anybody of Ray Allen.

Dragic likes to attack off the dribble but needs to improve as a distributor; his 59th-ranked pure point rating is unacceptable. He also needs to cut out the mistakes on defense; only four point guards fouled more often, tainting otherwise solid defensive results.

If Dragic can clean up the turnovers and shoot respectably from outside, he's a real weapon because of his finishing skills. It's rare to have a point guard shoot 65.4 percent in the basket area, as Dragic did last season, but fewer than a third of his shots came from that distance -- he relied far too much on 3s and long 2s. He also draws fouls on his attacks, so he needs to improve that 70 percent career mark from the free throw line.

Courtney Lee

+ Athletic, committed defender who can reliably contain opposing wing players.

+ Corner 3-point shooter with limited ball skills. Good leaper and finisher.

+ Shies away from contact on drive and rarely draws fouls. Rarely goes left.

Lee's production has been remarkably consistent given that he's been on three teams in three years. Last season his 3-point stroke recovered, as he nailed 40.8 percent, and between that and his solid defense he's made himself a valuable role player. Now he just needs to take more of them. Lee took too many long 2s last season and made only 34.7 percent of them, hurting his overall line; fewer than a third of his shots were 3s, but that's his bread and butter.

Lee is also an athletic finisher, especially going right and in transition, but he's not as effective in halfcourt settings because he won't take a hit. As a result, Lee's free throw rate is consistently well below the norm for his position.

Defensively, Lee is very solid -- a good athlete who competes and knows what he's doing. At 6-5 and 200 pounds, he can't match up against the biggest wings, but against virtually any 2 he's a capable defender who is able to guard without fouling. He'll likely never improve much from this point, but he'll stay in the league for a decade because his skill set -- a 3-point shooter who can guard the wings -- is in so much demand.

Patrick Patterson

+ Solidly built big man with good midrange jumper. B athlete.

+ Smart, physical player who should become good defender.

+ Average rebounder. Needs to draw fouls and refine low-post game.

Patterson shot 55.8 percent in what was a very solid rookie season overall, although the outsized (and likely unsustainable) shooting percentage was the main contributor to his strong PER. Patterson certainly has a nice 15-footer, but expecting him to hit 50 percent of his shots beyond 10 feet, as he did in 2010-11, isn't realistic. The shooting percentage will drop unless he gets a lot more tries in the paint.

Such a development would also help his disappointing free throw rate. Patterson took only 42 foul shots the entire season -- that's a bad week for Kevin Martin. Patterson had the seventh-lowest rate of free throw attempts per field goal attempt among power forwards, and it's particularly concerning since he also didn't make any 3s. He'll have to do one or the other to be a high value offensive player.

Defensively, Patterson was solid even as a rookie. He's an intelligent player with good awareness, plus he has a solid build and is willing to play physically. Oddly, he was dramatically more effective on the offensive glass than the defensive boards; that may just be a sample-size issue (he played only 868 minutes), but it bears watching.
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redhotrox · Nov 9, 2011

Rookies:

Marcus Morris

+ Short-armed combo forward with knack for scoring. Good midrange shooter.

+ Tough, but an average athlete. Needs to improve 3-point shot and free throws.

+ Below-average rebounder. Decent lateral quickness. Very good at using glass.

The central argument about Morris is whether he's a 4 or a 3; the Rockets seem to feel he's a 3 who can expand his range to the corners and stretch opposing defenses. Morris has more upside in that role than as a 4, where his lack of size and athleticism will likely offset an ability to take bigger players off the dribble. So it's a calculated risk, basically -- he could potentially be a long-term starter as a 3, but he could be a bust too. As a 4, he's career backup.

Donatas Motiejunas

+ Skillful, ballhandling big man in Toni Kukoc/Dejan Bodiroga mold. Left-handed.

+ Average shooter and not much of an athlete. Sees floor well; a point forward.

+ D a big question. Lacks muscle for a 5 but may struggle guarding perimeter.

Motiejunas shot well in Europe last season, but that may be an outlier -- he has a line-drive shot with a low release point and it doesn't always rotate correctly off his hand. The biggest question about him is that he needs the ball in his hands to succeed and take advantage of his superior ballhandling skills for his size. But he may not be good enough to run an NBA offense through.

Defensively, he's going to struggle. He's neither strong, nor athletic, nor tough; he's fairly mobile, however, and that may be able to carry him through as a sixth man, point forward type if his offense lives up to its billing.

Chandler Parsons

+ Smooth small forward with great size for position and outstanding passing skill.

+ Average shooter, good ballhandler. Needs to add strength and improve motor.

+ Game production hasn't caught up to tools. Bad foul shooter.

Parsons was a good gamble as a second-round pick. His production at Florida is reminiscent of David Lee, another player the Gators found a way to keep under wraps before he blew up in the NBA, and scouts are fond of Parsons' tools as a 6-10 small forward who can handle and pass. I'd expect some extended run in the D-League while he figures out how his skills fit in at the next level.
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redhotrox · Nov 9, 2011

09 Lotto Picks:

Jonny Flynn

+ Quick, shoot-first guard who can push tempo. Poor decision-maker.

+ Decent defensive mobility but undersized and needs to play harder.

+ Doesn't draw fouls. Poor outside shooter. Floater, midrange game need work.

Flynn didn't just take a step back last season, he did the moonwalk. After missing the first third of the season with a hip injury he came back to play 53 excruciatingly awful games, in which he showcased a near total inability to run an NBA offense. Flynn ranked among the bottom six point guards in six different categories -- PER, TS%, shooting percentage, free throw rate, turnover ratio and pure point rating. Ouch.

The biggest problem is his poor decision-making on the move, which resulted in an astronomical turnover rate for a shoot-first point guard. Flynn's other problem is nearly as serious, however -- he's a scoring guard who can't score. Flynn can create shots, but he's neither a good outside shooter nor adept at drawing fouls, and his size is a problem when he goes into the paint to finish. Even if his percentages improve, his shockingly low free throw rate will have to improve dramatically if he's going to offer much in the way of an offensive boost.

The defensive end did Flynn no favors either. Opposing point guards had a 17.4 PER against him and Synergy rated him among the league's worst performers. He also had the eighth-worst rebound rate among point guards.

If there's good news, it's that his shooting percentage will almost certainly improve from last season's disaster, and that he's likely to be used differently in Houston than he was in Minnesota. Flynn still has some potential as a Bobby Jackson-type third guard who can create a lot of shots at middling efficiency for the second unit, but to get there he'll have to make more shots, draw more fouls and throw the ball to the correct team.

Hasheem Thabeet

+ Long, tall, slender center with knack for shot-blocking.

+ Lacks strength. Foul prone. Has poor basketball instincts at both ends.

+ Can make short-range jumpers but has no post game whatsoever.

Thabeet looked lost in his second pro season, reversing whatever limited promise he showed in his first. He didn't even block that many shots -- just 15 in 349 minutes. While he had his moments in zone defenses, where his length makes the paint a no-go zone for opposing drivers, he was a nonfactor offensively. Additionally, he had a sky-high turnover rate from 3-second violations and illegal screens.

The Rockets had success with the late-model Dikembe Mutombo and likely envision a similar project with Thabeet, but they'll need to work on his head as much as his body after two dispiriting seasons in Memphis.

Terrence Williams

+ Athletic wing who can create shots for others. Sees floor well, but turnover-prone.

+ Outstanding rebounder for size. Decent defender. Flaky personality an issue.

+ Terrible shooter who struggles with jumper, finishing and free throws.

The Rockets have done many things right the past few years, but giving a lottery-protected 2012 first-round pick for Williams after he washed out of New Jersey wasn't one of them. Williams hardly played for Houston after the trade, and his career stat line is a mix of the good, the bad and the ugly.

The good is that he fills the stat sheet in secondary categories. A classic point forward, Williams can create for teammates and for a 6-6 wing rebounds very well; he also has a high steal rate.

The bad is anything involving shooting or scoring. While his career scoring rate isn't awful, his percentages are atrocious. Additionally, his buckets come at a huge cost in turnovers -- theoretically that portends well for his future growth, but his rate is so insanely high that it has to drop sharply for him to be a useful offensive player.

As for the ugly, Williams' bizarre behavior has created further doubts about his future. Also, for a good athlete he continues to be weirdly unable to block shots; he didn't have any last season in 290 minutes.
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(Hollinger has nothing to say about Jordan Hill for some reason.) :grin:

Carl Herrera · Nov 9, 2011

Kevin Martin
.

+ Brutal defender.
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Holliger is right. Kevin Martin brings the brutality on the defensive end.

Mr. Clutch · Nov 9, 2011

Good stuff, thanks for sharing.

larsv8 · Nov 9, 2011

Love these.

Now sure how he missed Hill though ;(

DaDakota · Nov 9, 2011

Thanks for sharing it is much appreciated.

And I knew CBud had improved on D, but giving up a 12.7per against other SFs? That is really good.

DD

Deckard · Nov 9, 2011

Far out! Kudos for finding us something to read that is not only about NBA basketball, but actually about players on the Rockets. I agreed with a lot of what Hollinger said. Not everything, by any means, but a lot of it.

meh · Nov 9, 2011

What I personally like about Hollinger is that regardless of whether I agree with him, I do feel he's not a talking head who never saw a non-TNT/ESPN Rockets game.

Very interesting about Patterson. I think Patterson's lack of an inside game was more a product of the system. Hopefully, McHale will change that and make him into a complete PF.

redhotrox · Nov 10, 2011

Deckard said: ↑

Far out! Kudos for finding us something to read that is not only about NBA basketball, but actually about players on the Rockets. I agreed with a lot of what Hollinger said. Not everything, by any means, but a lot of it.
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No problem.

I didn’t agree with everything either, such as how he assumes Kyle and Chuck are going to fall back down to earth, rather than crediting them with genuine improvement. But I thought there were a lot of other good points and little stats I didn’t know.

Noob Cake · Nov 10, 2011

redhotrox said: ↑

No problem.

I didn’t agree with everything either, such as how he assumes Kyle and Chuck are going to fall back down to earth, rather than crediting them with genuine improvement. But I thought there were a lot of other good points and little stats I didn’t know.
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Yeah, lol. Lowry's shot is definitely better. He was only 24 last season, and shot is one of those things that can be fixed.

meh · Nov 10, 2011

redhotrox said: ↑

No problem.

I didn’t agree with everything either, such as how he assumes Kyle and Chuck are going to fall back down to earth, rather than crediting them with genuine improvement. But I thought there were a lot of other good points and little stats I didn’t know.
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He's not assuming. It is more likely that abnormally high growth in any area tend to revert to the norm. While continual improvement is generally rare.

So yes, Lowry and Hayes could both have been genuinely improving. But if I were a betting man, I'd also bet against Lowry's 3pt% and Hayes' shooting% maintaining at the same rate. Sure, the homer in me thinks players will just improve. But I've watched enough young Rockets flame out to outright dismiss pessimistic outlooks.

dobro1229 · Nov 10, 2011

Good info. Never thought of the Toni Kukoc comparison for Donatas. Offensive skillset and build seem to be dead on. He does seem to have good range, but Hollinger is right about his release being so flat. With one of two summers and training camps, I think they could fix the hitch in his shot.

redhotrox · Nov 10, 2011

meh said: ↑

He's not assuming. It is more likely that abnormally high growth in any area tend to revert to the norm. While continual improvement is generally rare.

So yes, Lowry and Hayes could both have been genuinely improving. But if I were a betting man, I'd also bet against Lowry's 3pt% and Hayes' shooting% maintaining at the same rate. Sure, the homer in me thinks players will just improve. But I've watched enough young Rockets flame out to outright dismiss pessimistic outlooks.
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Hollinger doesn’t have a stat for badassery, which Kyle and Chuck have in abundance and make me think they’ve really improved. :grin: Kyle, especially -- I think his 3 point shot will stay really respectable and hopefully he can improve on that mid-range game.

Also, Hollinger added the report on Hill in case anyone wanted to see it:

Jordan Hill

+ Classic energy payer who crashes offensive boards and blocks shots.

+ Offensive game mostly limited to jab-step for 15-footers; needs post game.

+ Lack of strength resulted in high foul rate; must add strength.

Viewed as a bust in New York, Hill wasn't bad at all for a rookie power forward based on his overall numbers. He was fourth at his position in offensive rebound rate, 16th in blocks, and his scoring numbers (15.6 per 40 minutes) were very respectable.

Hill fouled entirely too often -- more than once every seven minutes -- and his lack of strength makes him a suspect post defender, but that can be addressed by pumping iron. He's not a star by any means, but he'll be a useful rotation player. New York just gave up on him too quickly.
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redhotrox · Nov 10, 2011

Actually, even though that Hill report wasn't there yesterday, it sounds like it was from last year's season preview. He didn't update Hill's projected stats either, so it probably is old. My bad.

ROXTXIA · Nov 10, 2011

meh said: ↑

What I personally like about Hollinger is that regardless of whether I agree with him, I do feel he's not a talking head who never saw a non-TNT/ESPN Rockets game.
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I like Hollinger's write-ups. He does put in the time.

If I disagree with him, it's when he relies too much on his " +/- " stuff to explain things. Such as, "And don't tell me Boston fell apart because they traded Kendrick Perkins, who had barely played any minutes and whose +/- was therefore" etc etc. I would point out that the trade took some of the heart out of the Celtics, blindsided them; the locker room was reportedly like a mausoleum right after the trade.

Which is to say, as a statistician, he might miss the human element.

But that hasn't prevented me from reading his articles.

durvasa · Nov 10, 2011

ROXTXIA said: ↑

I like Hollinger's write-ups. He does put in the time.

If I disagree with him, it's when he relies too much on his " +/- " stuff to explain things. Such as, "And don't tell me Boston fell apart because they traded Kendrick Perkins, who had barely played any minutes and whose +/- was therefore" etc etc. I would point out that the trade took some of the heart out of the Celtics, blindsided them; the locker room was reportedly like a mausoleum right after the trade.
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As stats people go, Hollinger is less enthusiastic about +/- than most.

daeyeth · Nov 10, 2011

awesome stuff

ROXTXIA · Nov 10, 2011

durvasa said: ↑

As stats people go, Hollinger is less enthusiastic about +/- than most.
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Sorry. Maybe I was thinking about the PER? Some stat he uses, the acronym of which was eluding me.

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