Dave Cambell's Logic

[Joe Joe]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/campb...e/1376592.html

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If I Were the Skipper ...
The Situation: San Francisco manager Dusty Baker made Tsuyoshi Shinjo his leadoff hitter to start the season. But Shinjo, who has good speed, has struggled at the plate (.213 average, .262 OBP). Should Baker leave him at leadoff and let him work out of his slump or make a change?

The problem is that the Giants haven't had a good leadoff hitter since Brett Butler in 1990. In Baker's decade-long tenure, the Giants haven't had a prototypical leadoff guy. Shinjo would fit the bill if he walked more and got on base, because he can run and he slaps the ball around. He's like Ichiro in that regard, but he's nowhere near the hitter Ichiro is. And Shinjo's on-base percentage is too low.

The bottom line is that Baker has no leadoff hitter. For the Giants, on-base percentage is more important than speed at leadoff. They want men on base for Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent to drive in -- and they don't really want first base open, since Bonds will almost always be walked intentionally if it is.

So whoever can manufacture the highest OBP should lead off for San Francisco. Maybe the Giants should borrow a page from their brethren across the Bay in Oakland. Jeremy Giambi doesn't have a stolen base yet, but he's getting on base (.437 OBP, .309 average). So the everyday player with the highest OBP (other than Bonds and Kent, of course) should lead off -- and that's third baseman David Bell (.352 OBP).

What Happened: Since the start of last Friday's series against the Reds, Baker has batted Bell in the leadoff spot (except for Monday, when it was center fielder Marvin Benard).
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Applied to Astros subbing Bagwell and Berkman for Bonds and Kent. And the Astros leadoff hitter should be.....................................
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Craig Biggio by 4 thousandths over Ward. Man, I really thought it would be Ward, but Biggio passed him yesterday. I don't think I'd favor Ward over Biggio at the leadoff spot.