SI.Com-Rox one of five teams that have taken a step backwards this offseason

And the #8 pick, you know we got Battier from the #8 pick (Gay) right?

 

5.) What? Never came close to saying that, but ok.

4.) No, it's not fair to compare Rafer and Sura. Sura was able to play with Yao and Tracy for the majority of a season. Rafer was not. Apples and oranges.

3.) What?

2.) I don't think anyone would qualify 20 games is an adequate sample size.

1.) Did I say anything about his shooting?


Sometimes the available evidence isn't enough in the context of a unique situation. This, to me, qualifies as one of those times.

 

Rafer does everything else better than Williams. He penetrates better, dishes better, rebounds, defends (OK, neither rebound or defend, so that's a wash). So in the grand scheme, yes.

 

For the last time, this is to everyone beleiving this, BATTIER IS NOT OUR STARTING OR OUR MAIN ROTATIONAL 4.

Understand?

One word peeps about playing some small ball with Shane at the 4, oh wow he's our starting 4!!?

Forget to mention, it's when we HAVE TO MATCHUP. Say against, Phoenix or Dallas?

I do expect to see Shane in the rotation at 4, for spurts. But our main PF? God, oh hell no. Get the facts straight, it's purely for spurts and for matchups.

As for taking a step back, yes we did. We didn't take leaps and bounds(as one guy earlier mentioned) ahead, meanwhile other teams adding on more significat pieces. We've taken baby steps, they've taken leaps, in the West you HAVE to take leaps to compete. If you stand pat, you fall back(CD said this, at this time of last year).

 

This is just mind boggling....

Healthy Tmac and Yao = competing for a WC title ALREADY !!

We are not that far away...an overhaul was not necessary, a tweaking was.....

Did everyone here forget how Yao finally GOT IT, last year, or that Tmac is a top 3 player?

I mean honestly........

DD

 

It's mindboggling. how come we did not hit the WC 2 years ago?

T-Mac is no longer a top 3 player, though. Lebron and Kobe are certainly better, and T-Mac's value as at an all-time low. However, Yao's emergence was key, and trust me no one other than me, has made that known when I talk generally about the Rockets.I loved every minute of it.

However, 2 players guarantees you a WC apperance? I think it's more than that, I don't know, maybe it's got something to do with your offensive approach(maybe using your WHOLE team as an approach, I don't know, could that work?), maybe there's defense, what about depth? What about injuries?

But then again, 2 players guarantee that. Not a team, so let's just get started with the WCF. Have Dallas, Houston on the WC, and Miami, and lets say Cleveland on the EC.

 

yet Williams has better, more efficient numbers almost across the board while playing starters minutes his whole career whereas when Rafer starts his efficiency drops - despite his being "better at everything".

This is why Williams is an average or better starter and Alston is a below average starter.

 

What he said...There's definitely no "SPLASH", but its not a horrible off-season either...

 

Hilarious.

 

I believe DaDakota says a lot of things just for his own psychological relieve. Just don't take them that seriously.

 

Well was Jordan a top player after he broke his foot and sat out most of that year?

Micheon, I say nothing for my benefit, I honestly feel this Rocket team is built to compete....IF....Yao and Tmac are healthy.

I do not think that you need stars at every position, I think we have 2 SUPERSTAR players and can win by surrounding them with competent role players. (Same as Miami, the Lakers with Shaq & Kobe, The Bulls with Pippen and Jordan, the Rockets with Hakeem and Clyde....etc...etc...etc..etc..etc..etc....).

And I think that is what the Rockets are doing.

Fee free to disagree, that is what the BBS is for.....

But I am right more often than wrong.......of course, I did predict that Langhi and Boki would succeed, so not everyone is perfect.



DD

 

Cat:

Regarding taking 20 or more games to gel, I haven't looked at it but here's a chart as a place to start (posted in the 0405 season). So how long did it take the Rockets to gel in 0405? One test might be to plot when players came and went on the roster as well as MP to get a gauge against the chart below. I don't have time to research that right now (at work) but maybe somebody can.



I'm of the opinion that it shouldn't take 20 games for a team to "gel".

First 250+ minutes is the point at which basketball statisticians believe that analysis becomes indicative vs. not for a player. If you extrapolate that out then that's about about:

7 games for 35mpg
8 games for 30mpg
10 games for 25mpg
12 games for 20mpg

2ndly two other charts I posted in my recent stats thread are also of note:







From these two charts you can clearly see the impact that TMac or Yao had entering or leaving the lineup and it didn't take long for it to show up which to me is another indicator that it doesn't take that long to "gel".

None of this is conclusive obviously. Regardless they are some data points to consider.

 

I guess we will have to wait and see, but I am gonna open up a big ole can of "I told ya so" when we start out on fire.

DD

 

we still have a lot of work to do before we "catch on fire" as in get a true PF

 

Don't need one.....Juwan will do ok.....he just has to compliment Yao and TMac....

If we could get Ely or Wilcox then it would be much better, but Juwan/Hayes/Novak/Battier will do.

Remember Chucky Brown was the starting PF on one championship team.

DD

 

Here are the relevant dates:

Ward's last game 11-26
Sura's 1st game 11-29
Barry's 1st game: 12-26
Jackson's last game: 12-26
Wesley's 1st Game: 12-29 (McGrady moves to SF)
James' 1st game: 2-27

By my counts, the Rox started off by going 6-10 in November (add Sura, lose Ward), then went 9-5 in December, making them 15-15 by Dec 29, when the backcourt (add in Barry, Wesley) was more or less finally assembled in the form that we knew it.

They followed that up by going 10-6 in January, 7-3 in February (insert James), 12-4 in March, and 7-3 in April.

The real turnaround, from unspeakably lousy to respectable was obviously November to December. After an AWFUL opening 16 game opening month, the Rox won 3 out of 4 to start December, with the third being the Tracy McGrady miracle over the Spurs at the T-center. In retrospect, taht stretch marked the climb back to respectability - just 16 games in.

As we suspected, it didn't appear to take them long at all. In fact it seems after each positive addition, there looks like a correlation with noticeably better play (all unadjusted of course, let Tango handle that).

 

So last season equals his entire career?

2004-05: http://82games.com/04MEM7C.HTM

2003-04: http://82games.com/03MEM7C.HTM

2002-03: http://82games.com/02MEM7C.HTM

 

Gary Payton actually played the majority of the Heat's minutes at PG. his overall PER was well below average (11.6) and his net was -4.7 compared to Alston's 13.7 and -3.7. also Posey was their starting SF and his PER was 11.3 and his net was -5.6. Howard is often vilified on this board, but his PER of 13.3 and net of -3.1 isn't substantially worse than Haslem's 14.8 and -1.3.

you forgot to include Snyder as a potential starter with little competition for the Rockets with a PER of 14.7 and a net of -.7. i don't see why Battier/Howard can't be used like Haslem/Walker last year with Haslem and Walker basically splitting minutes at PF and Haslem playing some SF and Walker playing some C.

it doesn't seem that outside of Wade and Shaq their other starters were that impressive. in other words, Battier/Howard/Alston/Snyder/Head isn't noticeably worse than Haslem/Walker/Payton/Posey/Williams. the Heat do have a great backup C in Mourning, but his role is increasingly important because of Shaq's decline as opposed to Mutombo's diminishing importance due to Yao's improvement. the Rockets have a promising backup PF in Hayes with a great PER and net and some new young athletic talent. both the Heat and Rockets are about 8-deep in their rotations and both very similar in talent and makeup. it's all going to come down to HEALTH, coaching and chemistry and execution.

 

All i have to say is

 

I didn't mention Payton because it wasn't my comparison (and technically Payton was not the "starter", he was simply healthier.) Williams started 56/59 games he played in this year - Payton? 26/82 Payton started 0 games in the playoffs

....but you will get no argument from me that Payton sucks terribly and the Heat won in spite of him.

However he and Williams (with a token contribution from Gerald Fitch & Wade) are a much stronger tandem, a lot closer 15/15 0.0 "average" (with a 14.0 PER to 15.9 opp/-1.9 net), while Alston plus assorted backups at 12.9 to 17.3 opp/-4.4 net.

I would say Howard's -3.1 net is substantially worse than Haslem's -0.7 and defintely below "average" for starters. Furthermore, PER is jsut the tip of the iceberg for Howard - the fact that his team actually gets significantly better on both sides of the ball when he's out is even more telling, IMO.

Posey also sucked, that's true, but then that's one weak link in the starting lineup, no question.

But they were helped by the fact that Wade had an unbelievably dominant season, probably as dominant as McGrady or Yao has ever been (number 1 in roland rating, ridiculous 30.3 PER at SG) and even old beaten up broken down O'Neal (vs. the weak C pool of the East) posted a shockingly high 26.1 PER to 9.0 for a sick 17.1 net (Yao was at 27.5 to 11.6 for +16.9 - McGrady did 24.8)

PER is not the end all/be all but when we're talking about whether or not Alston/Howard are "average" starters, I think it's quite obvious that they sure are not, and generally never have been while in a Rockets uniform (or ever in the case of Alston really). The same goes for Posey.

Haslem, Williams, IMO, are average starters, and are easily better than Alston and Howard by far.

So the Heat had two superstars, including the most statistically dominant player in the league ( who also had clutch & intangibles & everything else), two average starters, two quality backups in Mourning & Walker, & some stop gap fill-in/garbage in Payton Posey & the anderson's.

That's a lot more than the Rox have (currently) two superstars, one average starter in Battier(though at what position?), one quality back up (Hayes) and a bunch of garbage (don't ask to see Head's PER or Roland rating unless you want to be depressed.) We're two more players away from being at their level. Snyder might be one, but then we're still a player short (at PG, which is pure garbage as far as the eye can see - at PF at least there is hope with Hayes but there's no starter - which is a problem in the WC.)